DIVISION OF ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION, STATE OF FLORIDA SUGAR CANE GROWERS COOPERATIVE OF ) FLORIDA, a Florida Agricultural ) Cooperative Marketing Association, ) CASE NOS. 92-3038 ROTH FARMS, INC., and ) 92-3039 WEDGWORTH FARMS, INC., ) 92-3040 ) and ) ) FLORIDA SUGAR CANE LEAGUE, INC.; ) UNITED STATES SUGAR CORPORATION; ) and NEW HOPE SOUTH, INC., ) ) ______________________ and ) FLORIDA FRUIT AND VEGETABLE ) DEPOSITION ASSOCIATION, LEWIS POPE FARMS, ) W.E. SCHLECHTER & SONS, INC., ) OF and HUNDLEY FARMS, INC., ) ) DR. KENNETH H. RECKHOW Petitioners, ) ______________________ ) vs. ) ) SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT ) DISTRICT, an Agency of the State ) of Florida, ) ) Respondent, ) ) and ) ) MICCOSUKEE TRIBE OF INDIANS OF ) FLORIDA, the UNITED STATES OF ) AMERICA, and FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ) ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION, and the ) FLORIDA WILDLIFE FEDERATION, ) ) Intervenors. ) ___________________________________) AT DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA JANUARY 31, 1994-FEBRUARY 1, 1994 REPORTED BY: CAROLYN Y. HALL & ASSOCIATES DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 312 APPEARANCES: FOR THE PETITIONERS: SUGARCANE GROWERS COOPERATIVE MR. RICK BURGESS OF FLORIDA, ROTH FARMS, INC. PEEPLES, EARL & BLANK AND WEDGWORTH FARMS, INC. ONE BISCAYNE TOWER MS. CAROLYN S. RAEPPLE SUITE 3636 HOPPING, BOYD, GREEN & SAMS MIAMI, FLORIDA 33131 123 SOUTH CALHOUN STREET TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA 32314 TELEPHONE: (305) 358-3000 TELEPHONE: (904) 222-7500 FOR RESPONDENT-INTERVENOR: FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MR. THOMAS A.W. FITZGERALD MANAGEMENT DISTRICT: ASSISTANT U.S. ATTORNEY MR. R. BENJAMINE REID SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF FLORIDA POPHAM, HAIK, SCHNOBRICH 99 N.E. 4TH STREET & KAUFMAN, LTD. MIAMI, FLORIDA 33132 4100 ONE CENTRUST FINANCIAL CENTER TELEPHONE: (305) 536-5927 100 S.E. SECOND STREET MIAMI, FLORIDA 33131 TELEPHONE: (305) 530-0050 ALSO PRESENT: DR. RONALD JONES DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 313 T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S E X A M I N A T I O N I N D E X DEPONENT - DR. KENNETH HOWLAND RECKHOW - 1/31-2/1/94 EXAMINATION: PAGES BY MR. FITZGERALD 314-430 BY MR. REID 431-507 BY MR. FITZGERALD 507-531 BY MS. RAEPPLE 532-540 ------------------------------------------------------- E X H I B I T S I N D E X NUMBER DESCRIPTION MARKED EXH. #26 CURRICULUM VITAE FOR 321 DR. RECKHOW (16 PAGES) EXH. #27 MODELING PHOSPHORUS TRAPPING 341 IN WETLANDS USING GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODELS, SEPTEMBER, 1993 (29 PAGES) EXH. #28 NADB CHART (7 PAGES) 515 EXH. #29A P MASS LOADING RATE CHART, 517 TPOUT = 0 REMOVED (1 PAGE) EXH. #29B P MASS LOADING RATE CHART, 517 TPOUT = 0 INCLUDED (1 PAGE) ------------------------------------------------------- SIGNATURE PAGE FOR DEPONENT 541 CERTIFICATION OF COURT REPORTER 542 DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 314 ON MOTION OF COUNSEL FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, THE DEPOSITION OF DR. KENNETH HOWLAND RECKHOW MAY BE TAKEN BEGINNING AT OR AROUND 2:11 P.M. ON JANUARY 31, 1994, AT THE HILTON HOTEL, 3800 HILLSBOROUGH ROAD, THE WALKER SUITE, DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA, BEFORE PAMELA S. LILES, A NOTARY PUBLIC. THE SIGNATURE OF THE WITNESS TO THE TRANSCRIPT OF HIS TESTIMONY IS HEREBY REQUIRED. - - - - - - - - - - - WHEREUPON, KENNETH HOWLAND RECKHOW, Ph.D., HAVING FIRST BEEN DULY SWORN, WAS EXAMINED AND TESTIFIED AS FOLLOWS: EXAMINATION BY MR. FITZGERALD: Q. DR. RECKHOW, FOR THE RECORD, I'M TOM WATTS FITZGERALD, ASSISTANT U.S. ATTORNEY IN THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF FLORIDA, BASED OUT OF MIAMI, AND WITH ME IS DR. RON JONES. I'M SURE YOU'LL RECALL, FROM OUR DEPOSITION IN MARCH OF 1993, THE BASICS THAT MR. REID COVERED, OR PERHAPS I COVERED THEM TOO WHEN I STARTED; BUT IF AT ANY TIME YOU WANT TO TAKE A BREAK, OR YOU WANT TO TAKE FIVE AND DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 315 STEP OUT AND CONSULT WITH YOUR -- WITH COUNSEL FOR THE CO-OP WHO HAS DESIGNATED YOU AS A WITNESS, PLEASE JUST LET ME KNOW, OR IF YOU WANT TO JUST, YOU KNOW, TAKE A COMFORT BREAK, GET A CUP OF COFFEE, OR WHATEVER. A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) Q. IF, DURING THE COURSE OF MY QUESTIONING, I ASK A QUESTION THAT MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE -- WHICH BECAUSE OF YOUR SPECIALTY, IS PROBABLY GOING TO HAPPEN MORE OFTEN THAN I WOULD LIKE -- AND YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND THE QUESTION OR HAVEN'T THE FOGGIEST IDEA OF WHAT I'M TRYING TO ASK YOU, PLEASE JUST TELL ME AND I'LL FUMBLE AROUND AND TRY AND REPHRASE IT IN A WAY THAT DOES MAKE SENSE. A. OKAY. Q. AND IF YOU CAN'T ANSWER THE QUESTION THAT'S ASKED, OR YOU NEED TO ASSUME SOMETHING IN ORDER TO ANSWER THE QUESTION, IF YOU COULD TELL ME WHAT THAT IS, SO THAT WE CAN MAKE SURE WE DON'T WASTE ANY MORE TIME THAN ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. I UNDERSTAND YOU ARE AVAILABLE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, AND TOMORROW IS OKAY BY YOUR SCHEDULE? A. YES, UH-HUH (YES). DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 316 Q. OKAY, I -- MR. REID AND I -- AND MR. REID WILL BE JOINING US LATER THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF FLIGHT DIFFICULTIES FROM THE WEST COAST -- IN OUR DISCUSSIONS, WE'RE FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE'LL BE ABLE TO FINISH BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. I'M GOING A LITTLE OUT OF TURN. YOU'LL RECALL THAT HE STARTED YOUR DEPOSITION BACK IN MARCH, BUT RATHER THAN LOSE THE FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, WE THOUGHT WE'D MOVE IT ALONG AND I'LL GO BACK, ESSENTIALLY, AND TRY AND FILL IN A FEW OF THE AREAS I DIDN'T COVER THAT WERE RAISED BY THINGS HE HAD ASKED AND THEN WE'LL SEE WHERE WE STAND WHEN HE ARRIVES, AND PERHAPS I'LL FINISH, OR WE'LL SEE HOW CLOSE TO THE END OF THE DAY WE ARE. A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) MR. FITZGERALD: IF THAT'S ACCEPTABLE TO EVERYBODY? MS. RAEPPLE: THAT'S FINE. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) DURING YOUR FIRST DEPOSITION IN MARCH, YOU INDICATED THAT YOU HAD NOT REVIEWED OR DEVELOPED INFORMATION AT THAT TIME TO DETERMINE IF THE EVERGLADES WERE A EUTROPHIED SYSTEM OR NOT. IN THE INTERVENING NINE TO TEN MONTHS, WHATEVER IT'S BEEN, HAVE YOU INQUIRED INTO, OR RESEARCHED DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 317 THAT ISSUE AT ALL? A. NO. Q. AT THE TIME, YOU HAD DONE NO FIELDWORK WITH RESPECT TO THE EVERGLADES, ALTHOUGH I RECALL YOU DID TESTIFY YOU WERE CO-CHAIR OF A SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE TOC DOING SOME MONITORING OR SETTING UP A MONITORING SYSTEM OF SOME KIND. HAVE YOU DONE ANY FIELDWORK SINCE THE TIME OF YOUR MARCH DEPOSITION? A. NO. Q. OKAY. AT THAT TIME, YOU ALSO INDICATED THAT THE Ph.D. WORK THAT YOU HAD DONE, YOUR DISSERTATION RELATED TO EUTROPHICATION IN LAKES, AND THAT SORT OF THINGS, LOOKING AT LOADING WATER DEPTH AND RESIDENCE TIME, THAT THAT AREA OR BODY OF KNOWLEDGE DID NOT DIRECTLY APPLY TO THE ANALYSIS OR WORK YOU WERE DOING IN THIS MATTER. IS THAT STILL TRUE, OR HAS THAT CHANGED IN ANYWAY? A. I DON'T RECALL WHAT I SAID AT THAT TIME, BUT THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP IN THE SENSE THAT WE THINK -- I THINK IT'S USEFUL TO THINK OF LAKES, WETLANDS, WATER BODIES AS TRAPS OF POLLUTANTS. Q. SO, IN THAT SENSE, YOUR WORK ON YOUR DISSERTATION, DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 318 AND ON THE NATIONAL STUDY WOULD HAVE SOME GENERAL BASIS OR BACKGROUND FOR YOUR CURRENT WORK? A. JUST AS A STARTING POINT, AS A WAY TO THINK ABOUT THEM IN A VERY BASIC, CRUDE SENSE. Q. YOU INDICATED BACK IN MARCH THAT YOU DIDN'T THINK THAT YOUR COLLEAGUES AT THE DWC, THE DUKE WETLAND CENTER, WERE AWARE OF THE NATIONAL STUDY. IS THAT STILL TRUE, OR HAVE YOU HAD OCCASION TO DISCUSS IT WITH THEM? A. NOW WHICH STUDY ARE YOU REFERRING TO? Q. YOU REFERRED TO THE NATIONAL STUDY THAT YOU HAD WORKED ON. DID YOU WORK ON THE LAKE EUTROPHICATION STUDY? IS THAT STUDY THAT YOU'RE REFERRING TO? A. YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT MY DISSERTATION? Q. YES. A. I USED DATA FROM A NATIONAL EUTROPHICATION SURVEY. Q. AS I UNDERSTOOD THE TRANSCRIPT, AND MY NOTES FROM THAT, YOU HAD SAID DURING YOUR DEPOSITION THAT YOU DIDN'T THINK THAT YOUR COLLEAGUES AT THE WETLAND CENTER WERE AWARE OF THAT STUDY. HAVE YOU--- A. OF THE NATIONAL EUTROPHICATION SURVEY? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 319 Q. YES, SIR. HAVE YOU EVER HAD OCCASION TO DISCUSS IT WITH ANYONE THERE, OR AT LEAST SINCE--- A. NOT THAT I CAN RECALL, NO. THEY MIGHT BE AWARE. I DON'T KNOW. Q. AT THE TIME OF YOUR EARLIER DEPOSITION, YOU WERE AN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY. IS THAT STILL CORRECT? A. THAT'S CORRECT. Q. OKAY. I'M NOT SURE WE ASKED WHEN YOU WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT TO MAKE FULL PROFESSOR AT DUKE? A. PROBABLY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. Q. WHICH OF THE SCHOOLS WITHIN DUKE ARE YOU ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH? A. THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT; THE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING; AND I'M ALSO IN THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS AND DECISION SCIENCES. Q. HOW DOES THE DUKE WETLAND CENTER FIGURE INTO THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT? A. IT'S A -- IT'S A CENTER, AS DEFINED -- AS UNDER THE UNIVERSITY'S DEFINITION OF A CENTER, LOCATED WITHIN THE SCHOOL. Q. SO, IT IS WITHIN THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT, OR JUST DUKE UNIVERSITY AS AN UMBRELLA? A. I THINK IT'S IN THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 320 Q. OKAY. ARE YOU STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WETLAND CENTER? A. YES, I AM. Q. AND WHAT'S YOUR POSITION WITH THE WETLAND CENTER, AS OPPOSED TO THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT, IF THERE'S A DIFFERENCE? A. THERE'S -- I DON'T KNOW THAT THERE'S ANY DISTINCTION. THE WETLAND CENTER IS AN ENTITY THAT DUKE RECOGNIZES AS A CENTER, AS THEY DEFINE CENTERS, AND I'M A FACULTY MEMBER IN THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH AN AFFILIATION WITH THE CENTER. AND I DON'T -- IT'S HARD FOR ME TO UNDERSTAND THE -- WELL, YOUR QUESTION MAY RELATE TO LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF THE UNIVERSITY STRUCTURE, AND I PROBABLY UNDERSTAND LITTLE MORE THAN YOU DO. (THEREUPON, THERE WAS AN OFF-THE-RECORD DISCUSSION WHICH WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE COURT REPORTER.) Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) OKAY, YOUR COUNSEL -- OR COUNSEL FOR THE CO-OP INDICATED TO ME A FEW DAYS AGO THAT YOU MIGHT HAVE HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO UPDATE YOUR RESUME SINCE OUR LAST GO ROUND. HAVE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 321 YOU, IN FACT? A. YEAH, I FINISHED IT. DID SOME THINGS ON IT TODAY. Q. I HOPE YOU DIDN'T DO IT JUST FOR THIS. A. NO. ACTUALLY, THIS WAS TIMELY. I NEEDED TO GET A COPY INTO ENGINEERING, AND TO THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT. MR. FITZGERALD: CAN I ASK THAT THAT BE MARKED AS THE NEXT NUMBERED EXHIBIT, WHICH I BELIEVE WOULD BE EXHIBIT -- I THINK THAT WOULD BE EXHIBIT 26. (THEREUPON, THE DOCUMENT REFERRED TO BELOW WAS MARKED AS EXHIBIT NO. 26 - KENNETH H. RECKHOW, Ph.D. DEPOSITION - FOR IDENTIFICATION.) Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) OKAY. I'M NOT GOING TO GO THROUGH THIS IN DETAIL NOW. I WILL LOOK AT IT TONIGHT AND TRY TO HAVE COPIES MADE FOR ANYBODY THAT WANTS ONE. I WAS GOING TO MOVE ON ANYWAY INTO THE AREA OF CURRENT CONSULTING PROJECTS, AND I SEE THAT YOU HAVE WORKED ON SOMETHING ON THAT ANYWAY. A. I SHOULD ADD THAT -- THAT MAY NOT BE CURRENT. I DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 322 JUST WENT INTO IT FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR THIS MORNING, AND UPDATED CERTAIN SECTIONS. BUT THAT IS ONE SECTION THAT I DIDN'T LOOK AT, AT ALL. SO, I DON'T KNOW WHETHER IT'S ACTUALLY UP-TO-DATE. Q. YOU DESCRIBED SOME CONSULTING WORK THAT YOU WERE DOING BACK IN MARCH OF 1993 FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. ARE YOU STILL A CONSULTANT TO THE DISTRICT? A. THE CONTRACT IS ESSENTIALLY COMPLETE. WE WERE WORKING ON A SERIES OF THREE PAPERS -- STILL WORKING ON THE PAPERS. Q. AND WHAT ARE THE SUBJECT MATTERS OF THE THREE PAPERS? A. ITS DECISION ANALYSIS APPLIED TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE RESEARCH. Q. ALL THREE, OR? A. ALL THREE. Q. OKAY. AND IS THAT THE CONTRACT YOU WERE DESCRIBING WHERE YOU WERE WORKING WITH TONY FEDERICO? A. PROBABLY. NICK AUMAN IS THE PROJECT OFFICER. Q. AND WHEN WOULD THOSE PAPERS SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY, DO YOU THINK? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 323 A. I HOPE SOON, NEXT MONTH OR SO. Q. ARE THEY IN PEER REVIEW? A. NO. THE PROCESS THAT THE DISTRICT HAS REQUIRES THAT ANY PAPER THAT'S CO-AUTHORED BY A DISTRICT SCIENTIST, GOES THROUGH A PROCESS, AND WE'RE REAL CLOSE TO GETTING A COUPLE OF THOSE PAPERS INTO THAT PROCESS. Q. SO, THEY'RE STILL IN THE FINE-TUNING PRIOR TO SUBMISSION? A. YEAH, PRIOR TO -- A COUPLE OF PAPERS -- ONE OF THE PAPERS HAS -- THE FIRST PAPER HAS THREE AUTHORS -- ME, A GRADUATE STUDENT, AND NICK AUMAN FROM THE DISTRICT--- Q. OKAY. A. ---AND IT'S JUST DIFFICULT TO GET EVERYONE TO READ OVER AND MAKE REVISIONS AND CONTRIBUTE. Q. IS THE GRADUATE STUDENT LEEMAN, SOMETHING LIKE THAT? A. KATRINA SMITH. Q. OKAY, THAT'S SOMEBODY ELSE. YOU HAD DESCRIBED SOME WORK ANOTHER GRADUATE STUDENT HAD DONE FOR THE DISTRICT A WHILE BACK. DO THE THREE PAPERS HAVE WORKING TITLES AT THIS POINT? A. YEAH, THEY DO. THEY ALL THREE HAVE WORKING DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 324 TITLES. Q. CAN YOU GIVE THOSE TO US? A. I CAN'T OFFHAND. I JUST DON'T REMEMBER THEM. Q. OKAY. CAN YOU DESCRIBE THE GENERAL SUBJECT OF EACH? A. THE FIRST PAPER LOOKS AT OR DESCRIBES DECISION ANALYSIS, AND OUTLINES SOME OF THE ACTIVITIES THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST, OH, FIVE, TEN YEARS WITH REGARDS TO DECISIONS AND RESEARCH FOR THE EUTROPHICATION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SECOND PAPER INVOLVES THE USE OF THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR SELECTING A SIMULATION MODEL FOR MODELING EUTROPHICATION IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AND THE THIRD PAPER SETS UP A SIMPLE MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY SCHEME FOR PRIORITIZING RESEARCH. Q. AGAIN, KEYED TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE? A. YES. Q. OKAY. OTHER THAN THAT WORK, ARE YOU DOING ANY OTHER WORK FOR THE WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, CURRENTLY? A. NO. Q. HOW ABOUT THE WORK YOU WERE DOING WITH THE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 325 SUBCOMMITTEE, CO-CHAIRING THE SUBCOMMITTEE; IS THAT COMPLETE? A. I DON'T KNOW THE STATUS OF THAT. BILL WALKER CALLED ME ABOUT A WEEK AGO, AND INDICATED THAT THE WORK OF THAT SUBCOMMITTEE MAY BE REVIVED. I'VE HAD ESSENTIALLY NO COMMUNICATION WITH THE DISTRICT ABOUT THAT FOR ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF. BILL INDICATED THERE WAS A MEETING THIS WEEK OF THE TOC, AND ANOTHER ONE LATER ON IN FEBRUARY, AND ASKED ME WHETHER I WAS INTERESTED IN POSSIBLY GETTING INVOLVED AGAIN. AND I TOLD HIM THAT, YEAH, I'D LIKE TO. Q. YOU DESCRIBE A CURRENT CONSULTING ACTIVITY FOR THE U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. CAN YOU TELL ME WHAT THAT'S IN REGARD TO? A. CAN YOU GIVE ME MORE INFORMATION WHAT THE ITEM SAYS? Q. "PREPARATION OF A GUIDANCE MANUAL AND SOFTWARE FOR TREND DETECTION..." A. OH, THAT ONE, THAT'S COMPLETE, AND THAT'S JUST WHAT IT IS. IT'S A TECHNICAL GUIDANCE MANUAL AND SOME SOFTWARE FOR A USER TO DETERMINE THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY DATA WITH AN EMPHASIS ON LAKES. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 326 Q. IS THAT A MULTI-PARAMETER THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO DIFFERENT WATER QUALITY ELEMENTS, OR IS IT SPECIFIC? A. YEAH, IT'S THE SAME -- THE SAME STATISTICAL METHOD THAT BILL WALKER USED WHEN HE DID THE TREND ANALYSIS IN SOUTH FLORIDA. IT'S A SEASONAL KENDALL TEST, WHICH MOST PEOPLE USE FOR WATER QUALITY. Q. WE TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT -- OR YOU TALKED MOSTLY -- ABOUT THE SEASONAL KENDALL BACK DURING THE MARCH DEPOSITION. WHY, IN GENERAL, IS THE KENDALL TEST SO WIDELY ACCEPTED OR USED BY PEOPLE DOING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY? MS. RAEPPLE: OBJECTION TO FORM. MR. FITZGERALD: CAN YOU BE MORE SPECIFIC? I'LL TRY AND AMEND THE FORM FOR YOU. MS. RAEPPLE: I DON'T RECALL THAT THERE WAS TESTIMONY ABOUT THE TEST BEING WIDELY USED, OR THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT IS USED. MR. FITZGERALD: OKAY. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) IS THE SEASONAL KENDALL TEST A WELL-RECOGNIZED MECHANISM FOR TESTING TRENDS IN DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 327 WATER QUALITY DATA? A. IT APPEARS TO BE THE METHOD OF CHOICE FOR SCIENTISTS WHO ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN TREND ANALYSIS. Q. WHY IS THAT? A. MY BELIEF IS THAT SINCE IT DOES NOT REQUIRE AN ASSUMPTION OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF ERRORS, AND AT CERTAIN POINTS IS RESISTANT TO OUTLIERS, THAT IT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A STANDARD AS A CONSERVATIVE CHOICE, SO THAT YOU NEED NOT HAVE TO DEPEND UPON ASSUMPTIONS THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MEET WITH REGARDS TO THE NATURE OF THE DATA. Q. SO, IT'S SORT OF STOOD THE TEST OF TIME? A. I DON'T KNOW. IT'S JUST BECOME THE PROCEDURE THAT PEOPLE HAVE OPTED TO USE FOR THE REASONS I JUST MENTIONED. AND BECAUSE OTHER PEOPLE USE IT AND RECOGNIZE IT AS ACCEPTABLE, I HAVE A FEELING THAT'S AN ARGUMENT IN FAVOR OF IT, TOO. Q. OKAY. YOU MENTION AS WELL -- I GUESS AGAIN FOR EPA -- THE "PREPARATION OF A GUIDANCE MANUAL ON STATISTICAL METHODS FOR THE APPLICATION OF BIOCRITERIA IN STREAMS." WHAT'S THAT? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 328 A. THAT EPA HAS DECIDED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, IN PART, TO AUGMENT ITS CHEMICAL WATER QUALITY MONITORING PROGRAM, TO LOOK AT BIOTA ORGANISMS IN STREAMS AS ANOTHER MEASURE OF THE WATER QUALITY OR THE ECOSYSTEM, AND OUR TASK IN THAT EFFORT WAS TO PRESENT AND ILLUSTRATE BY EXAMPLE SOME STATISTICAL METHODS THAT COULD BE USED WITH THE CRITERIA THAT THE EPA -- OR THE STATES WERE SETTING UP. Q. YOU MENTION HERE "DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL MODELS OF LAKE EUTROPHICATION." WHAT DID THAT PROJECT INVOLVE? A. CAN YOU BE MORE SPECIFIC? Q. THAT'S ALL IT SAYS. I CAN SHOW IT TO YOU--- A. YEAH. Q. ---IT'S THE THIRD ENTRY UNDER EPA. (THEREUPON, WITNESS REVIEWS DOCUMENT.) A. OKAY. THAT WAS SOME SUPPORT THAT WE HAD FROM EPA TO LOOK AT STATISTICAL MODELS, USING CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA TO PREDICT IN-LAKE CONCENTRATIONS OF SOME COMMON TROPHIC STATE PARAMETERS, SUCH AS TOTAL PHOSPHORUS, TOTAL NITROGEN, CHLOROPHYLL-A, SO FORTH AND SO ON. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 329 Q. WHO ELSE WAS INVOLVED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL MODELS? A. A GRADUATE STUDENT OF MINE, TOM STOCKTON. Q. OKAY. AND BY REGIONAL MODELS, WHAT AREAS DID YOU MODEL? A. WE LOOKED AT THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES, AND DEVELOPED A REGIONAL SCHEME FOR HOMOGENEITY FOR, AS BEST AS WE CAN DETERMINE, HOMOGENEITY OF MODEL RESPONSE OR PARAMETERS WITHIN A REGION. MY RECOLLECTION IS WE HAD ABOUT SEVEN OR EIGHT REGIONS, THAT WE HAD DIFFERENT SETS OF MODELS PITTED FOR. Q. DID YOU WORK FROM A PREEXISTING DATABASE TO DEVELOP THOSE MODELS? A. YEAH, WE'VE HAD DATA ON LAKES AND NUTRIENT INPUTS THAT WE'VE HAD AVAILABLE FOR YEARS, ACTUALLY DATING BACK TO MY DISSERTATION, SOME OF THOSE DATA. Q. WHAT TYPE OF STATISTICAL MODELS ARE THEY? WHAT -- IF THAT'S THE RIGHT WAY TO ASK THE QUESTION. A. THEY ARE LINEAR AND NONLINEAR ROBUST REGRESSION MODELS. Q. WHEN YOU SAY THAT THEY'RE ROBUST REGRESSION MODELS, THEN ARE YOU USING THAT IN THE SENSE THAT DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 330 THEY PROVIDE A RANGE FOR EACH OF THE VALUES THAT YOU'RE TRYING TO PREDICT? A. NO, ROBUST REFERS TO THE FITTING CRITERIA, AND THAT'S A MODELING APPROACH THAT, IN EFFECT, TENDS TO DOWNWEIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF OUTLIERS IN THE DATA SET. Q. SO, IN THAT SENSE, IF I UNDERSTAND YOU, IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT A GIVEN LAKE WITHIN A REGION WOULD FALL WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE MODEL? A. NO. NO, IT, BY DOWNWEIGHTING THE INFLUENCE OF OUTLIERS, WHAT YOU ARE DOING, OR WHAT OUR FEELING WAS WE WERE DOING, WAS FITTING THE MODEL TO THE BULK OF THE DATA, AND SETTING UP WITH A ROBUST FITTING SCHEME, A SITUATION WHERE OUTLYING DATA POINTS -- DATA POINTS THAT WERE REMOVED FROM THE CLOUD OF POINTS, HAD LESS INFLUENCE ON THE MODEL PARAMETERS. Q. WERE THOSE MODELS DEVELOPED FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSES? A. YES. Q. SO, BY MAKING IT A ROBUST MODEL, IT'S GOING TO TAKE IN THE WIDEST NUMBER OF LAKES WITHIN THE REGION; YOU WOULD EXPECT THE WIDEST NUMBER TO FIT--- DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 331 A. NO--- Q. ---WHEN YOU ARE PREDICTING? A. ---NO, WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO DO WITH THE ROBUSTNESS FITTING CRITERIA, IS HAVE THE CLOUD OF THE -- THE BULK OF THE DATA, IF THERE'S A WELL-ESTABLISHED PATTERN IN THOSE DATA, BE THE PRIMARY DETERMINANT OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL; AND, AGAIN, THE OUTLIERS FROM THAT CLOUD OF POINTS HAVE LESS INFLUENCE THAN THEY WOULD UNDER STANDARD APPROACHES. Q. WHAT WOULD BE THE STANDARD APPROACHES THAT WOULD NOT RESULT IN THAT ROBUST MODEL? A. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION. Q. IT APPEARS THE ONLY OTHER CURRENT CONSULTING ACTIVITIES HERE THAT YOU HAVEN'T DISCUSSED ALREADY WOULD BE THE DECISION ANALYSIS FOR THE EXXON-VALDEZ RESTORATION PROGRAM. WHAT DOES THAT ENTAIL? A. THAT'S ESSENTIALLY COMPLETE, IN FACT, IT IS, AS FAR AS I KNOW. I SPENT SOME TIME IN ANCHORAGE ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF AGO LAYING OUT A SCHEME FOR THE STAFF, THE SCIENTIFIC STAFF TO HELP THEM PRIORITIZE THE USE OF THE MONEY FROM THE SETTLEMENT, AS TO WHAT ADMINISTRATION ACTIVITIES DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 332 MIGHT BE SELECTED. Q. HOW DID YOU HAPPEN TO BECOME INVOLVED IN THAT? A. I GOT A PHONE CALL FROM SOMEONE ON THE STAFF ASKING IF IT WAS INTERESTED IN DOING IT. Q. AND THAT'S COMPLETE NOW, OR ESSENTIALLY COMPLETE? A. AS FAR AS I KNOW. I HAVEN'T DONE ANYTHING FOR THEM IN MAYBE A YEAR. Q. AT ONE TIME, YOU WERE DOING SOME CONSULTING WORK FOR THE FLORIDA SUGAR CANE LEAGUE, THROUGH THE FIRM AS IT WAS THEN KNOWN, OF PEOPLES, EARL AND BLANK. HAVE YOU, SINCE MARCH OF 1993, DONE ANY ADDITIONAL CONSULTING WORK FOR--- A. NO. Q. ---THE LEAGUE? A. (NODS NEGATIVELY.) Q. HOW ABOUT FOR THE FLORIDA -- OR FOR THE CO-OP? A. NO. Q. ARE YOU AWARE OF ALL THE PARTIES TO THIS CASE? A. I DON'T KNOW IF I AM OR NOT. Q. I'M NOT SURE I AM EITHER. HAVE YOU BEEN DOING ANY WORK FOR ANYBODY IN SOUTH FLORIDA WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT YET? A. NO. Q. OKAY, THE SHOTGUN APPROACH. YOU DESCRIBED YOUR DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 333 SUPERVISORY RESPONSIBILITIES FOR SONG QIAN BACK IN MARCH. ARE YOU INVOLVED IN SUPERVISING--- A. YES. Q. IS HE STILL A STUDENT AT THE--- A. YES. Q. ---CENTER? A. HE'S A STUDENT AT THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT. Q. OKAY. THAT'S -- SEE, I KNEW THERE WAS A DIFFERENCE. A. WELL, THE CENTER DOESN'T GRANT DEGREES. Q. DR. JONES EXPLAINED THAT TO ME. I PROBABLY WASN'T LISTENING CLOSELY ENOUGH. YOU DESCRIBED FOR US THE MECHANISM THROUGH WHICH SONG WAS SUPPORTED IN HIS WORK TOWARDS HIS DISSERTATION BY THE CENTER. DO YOU RECALL THAT? A. YEAH, IF YOU CAN REFRESH MY MEMORY. I--- Q. YOU DESCR -- WELL, THE REAL QUESTION IS, IS HE STILL SUPPORTED THROUGH THE SAME MECHANISM? YOU DESCRIBED IT--- A. NO. Q. ---AS TWO TWENTY THOUSAND DOLLAR ($20,000.00) GRANTS FROM THE CO-OP TO THE CENTER--- A. YES. Q. ---OF WHICH SONG WAS RECEIVING SIXTEEN THOUSAND DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 334 DOLLARS ($16,000.00) OUT OF EACH. DOES THAT SOUND FAMILIAR? A. I DON'T THINK THAT'S RIGHT, BUT -- I DOUBT IF THAT'S RIGHT. HE'S NOT RECEIVING MONEY FROM THE CENTER ANYMORE, AS FAR AS I KNOW. Q. OKAY. DO YOU KNOW WHEN THOSE GRANTS STOPPED, OR THE FINANCIAL SUPPORT--- A. THERE'S STILL MONEY IN ONE OF THEM, I THINK. I DON'T MANAGE -- I SEE THE STATEMENTS ON ONLY ONE OF THEM. I DON'T SEE THE STATEMENTS ON THE OTHER, SO I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S IN THEM. Q. ACCORDING TO THE TRANSCRIPT WHEN I REVIEWED IT, AND IF THIS IS INCORRECT, JUST TELL ME SO, THERE WERE GRANTS IN SUCCESSIVE YEARS, AND YOU HAD SEEN SOME GRANT LETTERS, YOU THOUGHT, AT THE CENTER. A. THEY WERE GIFTS, NOT GRANTS, WHICH IS AN IMPORTANT--- Q. OKAY, I'M NOT USING THE RIGHT WORD. A. ---DISTINCTION TO THE UNIVERSITY. AND YES. YES, I HAVE -- THE ONE THAT I SEE THE STATEMENTS FOR, I DID SEE THE LETTER ON THE GIFT TO THE CENTER. Q. AND THOSE GIFTS WERE FROM THE CO-OP TO THE CENTER, NOT TO THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT? A. I THINK IT'S TO THE CENTER, YEAH. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 335 Q. IS SONG QIAN STILL IN THE MIDST OF HIS COURSE WORK--- A. NO--- Q. ---OR HAS HE COMPLETED THAT? A. ---HE PASSED HIS QUALIFYING EXAM FOR HIS DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN DECEMBER, AND SO HE'S JUST AT THE EARLY STAGES OF DOCTORAL RESEARCH. Q. OKAY. DID YOU EVER RECEIVE SONG'S FINAL PROPOSAL FOR HIS DOCTORAL WORK? A. YES. THAT WAS AN ESSENTIAL -- THAT WAS THE ESSENTIAL WRITTEN ITEM FOR HIS EXAM IN DECEMBER. Q. YOU HAD PROVIDED US A PROPOSAL, AND INDICATED BACK IN MARCH THAT YOU WERE EXPECTING THE FINAL WITHIN THREE OR FOUR MONTHS. DID IT CHANGE FROM THE PROPOSAL THAT YOU PROVIDED US? DO YOU KNOW, OR DO YOU RECALL? A. I WAS SURE IT WAS POLISHED. BUT THE ESSENCE, I'M FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE ESSENCE OF IT WAS THE SAME. I'M SURE IT IS. Q. CAN YOU SUM UP THE ESSENCE FOR ME? A. THE ESSENCE IS SONG'S DISSERTATION WILL INVOLVE THE USE OF NON-PARAMETRIC BAYES ANALYSIS TO PULL MODELING ANALYSES ON WETLANDS TRAPPING, USING, WE HOPE, THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE, THAT R.L. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 336 KNIGHT IS WORKING ON WITH EPA, AND POSSIBLY WCA-2A DATA, IF WE FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT FOR A MODEL OF WETLAND NUTRIENT TRAPPING. Q. WHO'S ON HIS PANEL? A. HIS COMMITTEE? Q. YEAH, I'M SORRY. A. LET'S SEE, ME AND MICHAEL LAVINE FROM STATISTICS AND DECISION SCIENCES, AND CURT RICHARDSON, AND PETER BLOOMFIELD FROM THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL SCIENCES, AND GABRIELLE KATUL FROM THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT. Q. NOW, YOU INDICATED BACK IN MARCH THAT YOU WOULDN'T EXPECT TO SEE ANY RESULTS FROM QIAN'S WORK TO SOMETIME INTO 1994. IS THAT TIME FRAME STILL--- A. FROM HIS DISSERTATION? Q. YEAH. A. YEAH, THE LATTER PART OF 1994, AT BEST. Q. OKAY. DURING THIS PERIOD THAT SONG IS WORKING ON HIS -- DOING HIS DISSERTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPING THE WRITTEN PRODUCT, IS HE SUPPORTED BY THE CENTER? A. MY UNDERSTANDING IS HIS SUPPORT FROM THE CENTER ENDED MAYBE SIX MONTHS AGO, OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 337 Q. SO, AT THIS POINT, AS FAR AS YOU KNOW, HE'S SUPPORTING HIMSELF? A. WE HAVE SUPPORT -- WELL, HE, LARGELY THROUGH HIS EFFORTS, HAS OBTAINED TEACHING ASSISTANT AND OTHER SUPPORT, EXTERNAL TO THE SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT, SERVING AS A STATISTICS CONSULTANT, FOR EXAMPLE, ON PROJECTS. Q. DO YOU KNOW IF HE'S DOING ANY STATISTICAL CONSULTING WORK FOR ANY OF THE PARTIES IN THIS CASE? A. I DOUBT IT, BUT I DON'T KNOW, AND I HAVE NO EVIDENCE THAT HE IS. IN FACT, I'M ALMOST CERTAIN HE'S NOT. STATISTICAL CONSULTING THAT HE'S TAKEN ON, AS FAR AS I KNOW, HAS BEEN ON CAMPUS. Q. SINCE OUR MEETING OR OUR DEPOSITIONS BACK IN MARCH OF '93, HAVE YOU HAD ANY FURTHER MEETINGS WITH ANY OF THE PARTIES TO THIS CASE, REGARDING THE MATTERS AT ISSUE IN THE CASE, OTHER THAN THE TOC, FOR EXAMPLE? A. I MET WITH -- LET ME THINK. AS FAR AS I KNOW, THE ONLY MEETING I HAD WAS WITH CAROLYN JUST LAST WEEK, A COUPLE OF HOURS. Q. DO YOU HAVE A CONSULTING CONTRACT WITH ANY PARTY TO THE CASE, OTHER THAN THOSE THAT YOU'VE ALREADY DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 338 DESCRIBED? A. NO. Q. SO, YOU HAVE NO CURRENT CONSULTING OR CONTRACTUAL RELATIONSHIP WITH THE CO-OP? A. NO. Q. OR THE LEAGUE? A. NO. Q. IN THE OVERNIGHT BREAK FROM OUR LAST GO ROUND AT YOUR DEPOSITION, YOU INDICATED THAT YOU'D HAD A CONVERSATION WITH DR. RICHARDSON CONCERNING SOME OF THE GENERAL NATURE OF WHAT WAS GOING ON, AND HOW MUCH YOU WERE ENJOYING THE PROCESS. HAVE YOU HAD AN OCCASION TO DISCUSS WITH HIM YOUR RE-NOTICE FOR DEPOSITION AND THE CONTINUATION OF THE PROCEEDINGS? A. YEAH, JUST IN PASSING, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IT. Q. DID YOU EVER REVIEW YOUR PRIOR TRANSCRIPT? A. NO. Q. DID YOU EVER GET THAT? A. NO -- OH, I THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO SAY REVIEW IT WITH RICHARDSON. Q. NO. JUST YOU PERSONALLY? A. YES, I LOOKED AT IT, YES. Q. OKAY. DID YOU LOOK AT IT BEFORE -- I MEAN, IN THE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 339 LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS IN PREPARATION FOR THIS PROCESS? A. NO, I DON'T EVEN KNOW IF I HAVE A COPY OF IT. IT SEEMS TO ME I SENT IT -- I DON'T REMEMBER. Q. OKAY. YOU PROBABLY WOULD HAVE SENT IT BACK TO THE COURT REPORTER WITH YOUR CORRECTIONS, IF ANY. A. I THINK THAT'S RIGHT. Q. HAVE YOU HAD ANY COMMUNICATION WITH TETRA TECH IN THE LAST TEN TO TWELVE MONTHS? A. I THINK RON MUNSON CALLED AND ASKED ABOUT THIS WORK THAT SONG AND I WERE DOING, AND I TOLD HIM THAT WE HAD NOTHING -- HAD NOTHING TO SEND HIM, AND -- BUT I PROMISED HIM -- I LEFT A NOTE ON MY DESK, I THINK, AND I PROMISED HIM I WOULD SEND HIM A COPY OF THE PAPER WHEN WE FINISHED IT, AND IT SEEMED TO ME I DID, BECAUSE I DON'T REMEMBER SEEING THAT NOTE ON MY DESK ANYMORE. Q. OKAY. DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN THAT PHONE CONVERSATION WAS? A. IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN IN JUNE, JULY, SOMETHING LIKE THAT -- MAY, JUNE, JULY, SOMETHING LIKE THAT. Q. AND YOU HAVEN'T HAD ANY COMMUNICATION WITH TETRA TECH SINCE? A. NO. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 340 Q. OKAY. WHEN YOU RECEIVED YOUR RE-NOTICE OF DEPOSITION FOR TODAY'S CONVENING--- A. I DON'T KNOW IF I EVER RECEIVED A NOTICE -- WAS I? Q. I'M SURE WE MUST HAVE SENT THEM TO COUNSEL, WHICH YOU PROBABLY DIDN'T GET THE FIRST ONE, EITHER. IT TENDS TO GO TO COUNSEL. THERE WAS AN INDICATION IN THE TRANSCRIPT FROM BACK IN MARCH, THAT YOU HAD WITHHELD, YOU KNOW, TEN TO TWENTY DOCUMENTS, SOMETHING ON THAT ORDER, ON THE BASIS OF PRIVILEGE, OR A CLAIM OF PRIVILEGE ASSERTED BY THE, CO-OP. AND LET ME BACK UP A LITTLE BIT. WERE YOU EVER MADE AWARE, PRIOR TO COMING HERE TODAY, THAT FOR THIS DEPOSITION, A REQUEST WAS EXTENDED AGAIN FOR CERTAIN DOCUMENTS THAT YOU WOULD HAVE RELATED TO THIS MATTER, BASICALLY INCORPORATING THE LIST FROM THE ORIGINAL DEPOSITION NOTICE? A. WHEN CAROLYN CAME, WE WENT OVER SOME MATERIAL, INDICATING WHAT WAS REQUESTED. Q. AND DID YOU HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS THAT HAD BEEN DEVELOPED, LOCATED, WHATNOT, DURING THE TEN TO TWELVE MONTHS, THAT WERE RESPONSIVE TO THE REQUEST? A. YEAH, I GAVE HER A PAPER. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 341 MR. FITZGERALD: IF WE CAN MARK THIS AS THE NEXT NUMBERED EXHIBIT. IT'S A DOCUMENT DATED SEPTEMBER 19, 1993, THE FIRST PAGE OF WHICH HAS THE BATES STAMP NUMBER THAT LOOKS LIKE DKR0013872. (THEREUPON, THE DOCUMENT REFERRED TO ABOVE WAS MARKED AS EXHIBIT NO. 27 - KENNETH H. RECKHOW, Ph.D. DEPOSITION - FOR IDENTIFICATION.) Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) I'LL SHOW YOU THAT DOCUMENT. IN ADDITION TO EXHIBIT 27--- MR. FITZGERALD: DO YOU HAVE A COPY OF THAT, RICK? (THEREUPON, THERE WAS AN OFF-THE-RECORD DISCUSSION WHICH WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE COURT REPORTER.) Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) OKAY, IN ADDITION TO THAT DOCUMENT -- I SEE YOU HAVE A COPY, TOO, DOCTOR, AND SOME CORRESPONDENCE, A COUPLE OF LETTERS BACK AND FORTH TO THE AGU ABOUT PUBLICATION OF THAT DOCUMENT, DID YOU HAVE ANYTHING ELSE THAT WAS RESPONSIVE TO THE REQUEST FOR PRODUCTION OF DOCUMENTS? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 342 A. WELL, I HAD SOME ITEMS THAT HAD BEEN TRANSMITTED TO ME FROM THE LAW FIRM, UNDER THEIR PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL, AND I GAVE THEM -- I GUESS I SENT THEM TO GARY PERKO. YEAH. Q. YOU DON'T WORK FOR THE LAW FIRM? A. NO. Q. UNDER WHAT RELATIONSHIP ARE YOU CLAIMING PRIVILEGE FOR DOCUMENTS THAT YOU'VE HAD OR REVIEWED, BASED ON SOMEBODY YOU DON'T WORK FOR, WHO IS NOT YOUR EMPLOYER, WITH WHOM YOU HAVE NO CONTRACT? A. I'M NOT CLAIMING PRIVILEGE ON ANYTHING. I JUST PROVIDED THEM TO THE LAW FIRM. I DON'T--- Q. BUT IN YOUR VIEW AT THE TIME YOU PROVIDED THEM TO THE LAW FIRM, THEY FELL WITHIN THE DESCRIPTIONS IN THE NOTICE OF DEPOSITION, THE REQUEST FOR DOCUMENTS? A. YES. MS. RAEPPLE: THESE WOULD BE DOCUMENTS THAT WERE SENT BY US TO DR. RECKHOW, AND WE'RE CLAIMING WORK PRODUCT. MR. FITZGERALD: WORK PRODUCT FOR SOMEBODY WHO DOESN'T WORK FOR YOU? MS. RAEPPLE: THAT'S CORRECT. MR. FITZGERALD: YOU'VE DISCLOSED THEM DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 343 TO A STRANGER TO THE CASE TO A THIRD PARTY TO THIS ACTION. WHERE'S THE WORK PRODUCT IN THAT? MS. RAEPPLE: WE BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION OF CONFIDENTIALITY, UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES. MR. FITZGERALD: BASED -- I ASSUME YOU HAVE PRECEDENT AND AUTHORITY FOR THAT CLAIM OF EXPECTATION WHEN YOU DISCLOSE TO A THIRD PARTY? MS. RAEPPLE: THAT'S CORRECT. MR. FITZGERALD: I THINK WE WILL TAKE EXCEPTION TO THAT, AND WE'LL TAKE THAT UP WITH THE HEARING OFFICER. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) HOW MANY DOCUMENTS ARE INVOLVED IN THAT, IF YOU RECALL, DOCTOR, WITHOUT GIVING ANY SPECIFICS OF WHAT'S IN THEM? A. HALF A DOZEN, AT MOST. Q. AND DID YOU RECEIVE ALL THESE DOCUMENTS FROM COUNSEL? A. I DON'T REMEMBER. I DON'T THINK SO. I THINK SOME MAY HAVE COME FROM KBN. Q. DO YOU HAVE A CONTRACTUAL RELATIONSHIP WITH KBN? A. NO. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 344 Q. WERE THERE ANY -- WAS THERE ANY EXPLANATION FROM KBN WHY THEY WERE SENDING THEM TO YOU? A. NO, I DON'T RECALL THAT THERE WAS. Q. WERE YOU AWARE THEY WERE COMING TO YOU BEFORE YOU HAD RECEIVED THEM? A. I DON'T BELIEVE THAT I WAS, HUH-UH (NO). Q. HOW'D YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH THEM WHEN YOU GOT THEM? KIND OF AN OBVIOUS QUESTION. A. THERE WAS A COVER LETTER EXPLAINING WHAT THEY WERE. Q. WHO AT KBN SIGNED THE COVER LETTERS? A. GEE, I--- MS. RAEPPLE: AT THIS POINT, I'M GOING TO OBJECT FURTHER ON WORK PRODUCT, IF YOU GET INTO THE SPECIFICS OF THE DOCUMENTS, WE'RE CLAIMING WORK PRODUCT PRIVILEGE. AND IF YOU'RE--- MR. FITZGERALD: I'M NOT ASKING ANY SPECIFICS ABOUT -- STRICTLY WHO SIGNED THE COVER LETTER. ARE YOU CLAIMING A WORK PRODUCT ON THAT? MS. RAEPPLE: THAT'S RIGHT. YES. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) IN THE MATERIALS -- DURING WHAT PERIOD OF TIME DID YOU RECEIVE THESE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 345 MATERIALS? A. I WOULD SAY IT WAS SOMETIME IN THE MAY TO AUGUST PERIOD OF TIME. Q. OKAY. AND DID YOU PERFORM STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, BASED ON THESE MATERIALS THAT YOU RECEIVED? A. I DID NOTHING WITH THEM. Q. THAT'S PRETTY STRANGE. A. I GET A LOT OF THINGS IN THE MAIL THAT I DO NOTHING WITH. Q. ME TOO. MR. BURGESS: KIND OF LIKE THAT LETTER I SENT YOU LAST WEEK. MR. FITZGERALD: OH, I DIDN'T IGNORE THAT LETTER, I THREW IT AWAY. MR. BURGESS: WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT LATER. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) SINCE MARCH, HAVE YOU HAD ANY CONTACT WITH CURT POLLMAN? A. I CAN'T REMEMBER. I MAY HAVE. HE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEONE I SENT THE PAPER TO AS WELL, AGAIN, IN THE SAME SPIRIT AS WITH RON MUNSON. Q. BUT NO SPECIFIC CONVERSATIONS ABOUT ANY OF THE WORK THAT YOU OR QIAN WERE DOING? A. NOT ANYTHING THAT I CAN RECALL. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 346 Q. YOU INDICATED IN MARCH THAT YOU HAD A DOCUMENT THAT WAS RESPONSIVE, BUT YOU HAD JUST KIND OF OVERLOOKED OR FORGOTTEN TO PROVIDE, IN RESPONSE TO PARAGRAPH NINE OF THE SUBPOENA, OR THE NOTICE OF PRODUCTION PROVIDED BY THE WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, AND WHICH HAD BEEN ADOPTED BY THE UNITED STATES AS WELL; THAT APPARENTLY INVOLVES SOME -- A DECISIONAL CLASS HANDOUT DOCUMENT, WHICH YOU SAID "NO PROBLEM, WE'LL PROVIDE IT," AND COUNSEL, OF COURSE, THEN -- COUNSEL WHO WAS HERE AND HEARD THAT, TO EVADE THAT RESPONSIBILITY, WENT OFF TO EASTERN EUROPE INTO ONE OF THE FORMER S.S.R.'S AND DOCUMENT NEVER TO BE SEEN. I WONDER IF WE MIGHT GET THAT NOW. DO YOU KNOW THE DOCUMENT THAT WE WERE -- THAT YOU WERE REFERRING TO THEN? A. NO, I CAN'T REMEMBER. Q. A CLASS HANDOUT DOCUMENT, A DECISIONAL CLASS? A. I, LAST SPRING, TAUGHT A CLASS IN DECISION ANALYSIS. I--- Q. I THINK MAYBE I CAN FIND IT IN THE RECORD AND SOMETHING--- A. OKAY. Q. ---AND WE'LL CLEAR IT UP. A. OKAY. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 347 MS. RAEPPLE: MR. FITZGERALD, I RECALL THE INSTANCE IN THE TRANSCRIPT WHERE THE REPRESENTATION WAS MADE THAT THAT HANDOUT WOULD BE PROVIDED, AND WHEN WE'RE OFF THE RECORD, I'LL TALK TO THE WITNESS AND SEE IF WE CAN'T GET THAT DOCUMENT FOR YOU. MR. FITZGERALD: I NOTICE IT WAS IN RESPONSE TO MR. REID, NOT TO ME, SO THAT'S -- BUT I PICKED IT UP WHEN I WAS GOING THROUGH AND MAKING NOTES. I THINK THE WHOLE CASE WILL PROBABLY TURN ON IT, SO IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) IN THE INTERVENING TIME, HAVE YOU DONE ANYTHING -- ANY WORK THAT HAD LED YOU TO CHANGE YOUR PERSPECTIVE ON YOUR ROLE, AND WHETHER YOU MIGHT OFFER OPINIONS ON WHETHER STA'S WILL WORK OR NOT? A. NO. Q. OKAY. AT THE TIME, YOU DEFINED OPINION AS EQUALLING THE PREFERENCE FOR A STRATEGY. IS THAT STILL YOUR VIEW OF WHAT OPINION MEANS? A. THAT SOUNDS REASONABLE. Q. YOU ALSO SAID, HOWEVER, THAT YOU WOULD REACH ANY CONCLUSIONS AFTER SONG'S WORK ON STA DESIGN WAS DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 348 COMPLETE, AND I HAD A LITTLE TROUBLE UNDERSTANDING EXACTLY WHAT TYPE OF CONCLUSIONS YOU THOUGHT YOU WOULD BE REACHING, SINCE YOU DIDN'T PLAN TO HAVE OPINIONS ON WHETHER STA'S WOULD WORK. CAN YOU CLARIFY THAT FOR ME, IF YOU CAN? A. COULD YOU REPEAT THE FIRST SENTENCE OR TWO? I DIDN'T CATCH ALL THE WORDS. Q. YOU INDICATED THAT YOU WOULD REACH ANY CONCLUSIONS AFTER SONG'S WORK ON STA DESIGN WAS COMPLETE, AND I GUESS THAT CONFUSED ME, BECAUSE SINCE YOU DIDN'T PLAN TO OFFER ANY OPINIONS ON WHETHER STA'S WOULD WORK, I WAS LEFT A LITTLE UNCLEAR. I READ IT A COUPLE OF TIMES, AND STILL COULDN'T FIGURE OUT WHAT OF SONG'S WORK -- WHAT CONCLUSIONS YOU THOUGHT YOU MIGHT REACH, BASED ON SONG'S WORK. A. I DON'T REMEMBER WHAT I WAS REFERRING TO AT THAT TIME. CONCLUSIONS WE HOPE TO REACH ARE WITH REGARDS TO GOOD PREDICTIVE MODELS, AND NOT NECESSARILY SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS OF THOSE MODELS. Q. OKAY. HAVE YOU DEVELOPED ANY MODELS THAT WOULD RELATE TO STA DESIGN, SINCE OUR MARCH DEPOSITION SESSION? A. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS IN THIS PAPER THAT DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 349 SONG AND I WROTE WOULD RELATE TO STA DESIGN. I HAVEN'T LOOKED INTO THAT ISSUE AT ALL. Q. SO, I TAKE IT FROM YOUR ANSWER, THEN, THAT EXHIBIT 27 WAS NOT DEVELOPED WITH THE INTENT THAT IT BE APPLIED TO STA'S? A. THAT'S CORRECT. Q. BUT IT DOES, AT LEAST IN ONE PORTION OF THE ANALYSIS, USE THE DATABASE FROM WCA-2A? A. THAT'S CORRECT. Q. YOU WERE AWARE THAT 2A WAS BEING -- OR IS BEING USED IN THE SWIM PLAN AND IN THE ANALYSIS DONE BY DRS. KADLEC AND WALKER AS A BASIS FOR STA DESIGN? A. I'M NOT KEEPING UP WITH THE STA DESIGN WORK. I KNOW THAT THOSE PEOPLE HAVE LOOKED AT THOSE DATA, THE WCA-2A DATA. Q. YOU INDICATED THAT YOU HAD A SABBATICAL COMING UP THIS YEAR. IS THAT STILL THE CASE? A. YES, I'M IN THE MIDST OF IT. Q. OH, I WAS JUST GOING TO ASK WHEN, TO SEE IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE AROUND, YOU KNOW, WHEN THE RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD IN THIS THING. HOW LONG WILL THAT LAST? A. 'TIL SEPTEMBER OF '94. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 350 Q. OKAY. BUT YOU WILL BE HERE--- A. HERE. Q. ---LOCALLY IN--- A. YES. Q. ---DURHAM? A. YES. Q. YOU INDICATED IN MARCH THAT YOU DID NOT EXPECT YOU'D BE OFFERING ANY TESTIMONY ON TREND ANALYSIS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVERGLADES PROTECTION AREA. IS THAT STILL TRUE? A. YES. Q. HAVE YOU DONE ANY TREND ANALYSIS WORK WITH RESPECT TO WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN THE EVERGLADES PROTECTION AREA? A. NO. Q. ONE OF THE DOCUMENTS THAT WAS UTILIZED AT THE LAST DEPOSITION, AND WAS EXHIBIT SIX, WAS A PAPER BY W.H. PATRICK, JR., FROM L.S.U., DATED OCTOBER '92, TITLED "REVIEW OF RECENT LITERATURE ON PHOSPHORUS REMOVAL IN WASTEWATER TREATMENT WETLANDS." AND AT THE TIME YOU INDICATED THAT YOU HAD IT AT HAND, BUT YOU HAD NOT READ IT YET. WAS THAT DOCUMENT UTILIZED BY YOU IN ANY WAY AS BACKGROUND, OR AS A REFERENCE FOR EXHIBIT 27? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 351 A. I'D HAVE TO LOOK IN THE REFERENCE LIST TO SEE IF IT'S LISTED. I DIDN'T LOOK AT IT. Q. DO YOU RECALL IF YOU'VE READ IT YET? A. I HAVE NOT READ IT, YET. Q. SO, YOU DIDN'T USE IT, ANYWAY? A. I DID NOT USE IT, CORRECT. Q. WELL, WE MAY GET THROUGH A LOT OF THESE VERY QUICKLY, THAT WAY. EXHIBIT ELEVEN FROM THE EARLIER DEPOSITION, "FORMS OF SOIL PHOSPHORUS ALONG A NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN EVERGLADES." THIS IS THE DOCUMENT BY ROBERT QUALLS AND CURTIS RICHARDSON, WHO CLAIM THEY'RE WITH THE WETLAND CENTER. YOU INDICATED AT THAT TIME THAT YOU HADN'T READ THAT ONE, EITHER, BUT THAT YOU MIGHT RELY UPON IT. DO YOU RECALL IF YOU HAVE READ IT SINCE, OR WHETHER YOU HAVE RELIED ON IT? A. THAT MAY BE THE PAPER THAT IS CITED HERE, BUT I'M NOT CERTAIN. Q. OKAY. THERE'S -- IF YOU CAN LOOK AT YOUR COPY OF EXHIBIT 27--- A. YEAH. Q. ---THERE IS REFERENCE IN THERE, AS I RECALL, TO A CRAFT-RICHARDSON, OR RICHARDSON-CRAFT DOCUMENT, DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 352 WHICH MAYBE ONE OF THE ONES COMING UP. A. RICHARDSON-CRAFT. Q. YEAH. BUT THIS IS QUALLS-RICHARDSON--- A. OKAY. NO. Q. ---WHICH I DIDN'T SEE IN THERE--- A. NO. Q. ---IN YOUR REFERENCE TABLE. SO, THIS WAS NOT UTILIZED? A. YEAH, I -- I HAD CRAFT AND QUALLS CONFUSED. IF IT'S NOT LISTED IN THE REFERENCE LIST, WE -- I DID NOT RELY ON IT. Q. OKAY. DO YOU KNOW IF -- DO YOU RECALL IF YOU PROVIDED ANY INPUT FOR EXHIBIT ELEVEN TO DR. QUALLS OR DR. RICHARDSON ON THAT -- THAT PAPER? A. I CAN'T IMAGINE THAT I DID. MR. FITZGERALD: I SEEM TO BE MISSING ONE OF MINE. I'M MISSING NUMBER 14. RON, DID YOU PULL THAT ONE OUT, BY ANY CHANCE? DR. JONES: HUH-UH (NO). MR. FITZGERALD: I FORGET WHAT IT WAS. MS. RAEPPLE: I HAVE IT. MR. FITZGERALD: YOU'VE GOT 14? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 353 MS. RAEPPLE: 14? MR. FITZGERALD: YEAH, IF YOU COULD JUST GIVE ME THE TITLE OF THAT DOCUMENT. I KNOW I HAD IT BEFORE, BECAUSE I WROTE IT DOWN. IT PROBABLY IS, AND IT'S JUST STUCK -- I FOUND IT. THANK YOU. THE PAPER CLIP PICKED UP BOTH OF THEM. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) EXHIBIT 14 WAS A PAPER BY LOWE, BATTOE, STITES, AND COVENEY, OR COVENEY, FROM THE ST. JOHNS WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT IN FLORIDA ON PARTICULATE PHOSPHORUS REMOVAL BY A WETLAND FILTRATION, WHICH YOU HAD PROVIDED AS PART OF YOUR DOCUMENTS; AND AT THE TIME YOU INDICATED YOU POSSIBLY COULD USE, MAY USE, PROBABLY HADN'T READ. HAVE YOU RELIED ON IT? A. NO. Q. HAVE YOU READ IT? A. NO. Q. OKAY. AND THEN THE FAMOUS FACT OR FICTION ARTICLE, DEPO EXHIBIT 15 -- "EFFECTIVE PHOSPHORUS RETENTION IN WETLANDS, FACT OR FICTION?" -- AND YOU INDICATED THIS WAS A MODIFICATION OF SONG'S WORK, AND THE DATA LISTINGS HAD BEEN DONE BY SONG FOR A CLASS. I BELIEVE THAT WAS A CLASS OF YOURS? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 354 A. IF I SAID THAT, THAT'S -- I DON'T REMEMBER IT, BUT I'LL DEFER TO WHAT I SAID EARLIER. Q. THIS DOCUMENT, EXHIBIT 15, WAS A BACKGROUND DOCUMENT, AS A REFERENCE FOR THE EXHIBIT 27 PAPER, RIGHT? A. UH-HUH (YES). Q. SO, DR. RICHARDSON AND -- WAS DR. CRAFT ALSO AN AUTHOR ON THAT? A. YES. Q. OKAY. AND SONG DID THE MATHEMATICAL BACKGROUND WORK? A. (NO RESPONSE.) Q. OKAY, YOU PROVIDED AS EXHIBIT 16 A PHASE ONE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE APPENDICES AND DOCUMENTATION THAT YOU INDICATED WERE FROM THE KADLEC-NEWMAN WORK FROM 1992. DO YOU RECALL THAT? A. I RECALL THE KADLEC-NEWMAN WORK, YES. Q. IN EXHIBIT 27, YOU CITE TO THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE AND A DATA SET. IS THAT THE DATA SET THAT YOU ARE REFERRING TO? MR. BURGESS: WHAT NUMBER EXHIBIT IS THAT? MR. FITZGERALD: THAT'S EXHIBIT 16. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 355 WITNESS: 16. MS. RAEPPLE: THANK YOU. A. I THINK IT IS. IT'S GOING BY THE SAME NAME, SO I'M ASSUMING THAT IT IS. Q. WHEN THE ANALYSIS IN EXHIBIT 27 WAS CONDUCTED, PART OF IT IS ON OR BASED ON THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE? A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) Q. DO YOU RECALL HOW YOU ACQUIRED THE DATA SET FOR THAT? A. I BELIEVE WE OBTAINED IT EITHER FROM CURT RICHARDSON OR FROM CURT POLLMAN, BUT I DON'T REMEMBER. Q. WOULD YOU RECALL IF IT WAS IN TABULAR FORM OR DISK? A. I THINK WE HAD IT -- WE OBTAINED IT IN BOTH. Q. THE KADLEC-NEWMAN DOCUMENT, THAT WAS IN YOUR MATERIALS, INDICATED THAT THE DATA LISTING WAS UNCHECKED AND UNPUBLISHED. IN PREPARING TO PRODUCE EXHIBIT 27, WERE YOU ABLE TO ENSURE THAT THE -- OR FINALIZE THE DATA IN ANY FASHION, OR WAS IT STILL UNCHECKED AND UNPUBLISHED AT THE TIME YOU PRODUCED EXHIBIT 27, DATED SEPTEMBER OF '93? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 356 A. WE DIDN'T DO ANY DATA CHECKING. WE MADE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THESE DATA REPRESENTED A GOOD DATA SET. WE HOPE TO OBTAIN FROM KNIGHT IN THE NEW AND IMPROVED NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE. Q. WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DATABASE THAT WOULD HAVE EXISTED THEN, AND THE ONE NOW? A. I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T KNOW. I'VE JUST HAVE BEEN TOLD THAT THERE'S A BETTER DATABASE AVAILABLE, THAT THAT DATABASE HAS BEEN UPDATED OR REVISED, AND THAT'S WHAT WE HOPED TO USE FOR SONG'S DISSERTATION. Q. DID YOU UNDERSTAND UPDATE OR REVISION IN THE SENSE OF IT'S EXPANDED? THAT IT'S A LARGER DATABASE, OR THAT--- A. I THOUGHT THAT COULD HAVE MEANT ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF THINGS, INCLUDING THAT. Q. OKAY. YOU PROVIDED SOME BIWEEKLY PROGRESS REPORTS, AND THEY WERE EXHIBIT 24 TO THE EARLIER DEPOSITION, THAT YOU HAD BEEN PROVIDING TO THE LEAGUE, AND OTHERS, I GUESS, LIKE CURT POLLMAN, AND SOME PEOPLE YOU IDENTIFIED IN THE DEPOSITION AT THAT TIME. DID YOU DO ANY ADDITIONAL BIWEEKLY REPORTS ON -- THAT WERE ON QIAN SONG'S WORK? A. NO. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 357 Q. AFTER MARCH, WERE ANY ADDITIONAL SUCH REPORTS PROVIDED? A. I DON'T RECALL SENDING ANY, NO. Q. OKAY. YOU INDICATED IN MARCH THAT TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU MIGHT BE SUBJECTED TO BEING A WITNESS AT HEARING IN THIS MATTER, THAT YOU WOULD BE TESTIFYING FROM SONG'S WORK. DO YOU RECALL THAT? A. I DON'T RECALL THAT, BUT, YES, THAT SOUNDS REASONABLE. Q. IS THAT STILL--- A. YES. Q. ---STILL CORRECT? A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) Q. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES EXHIBIT 27 REPRESENT SONG'S WORK, AND TO WHAT EXTENT DOES IT REPRESENT YOUR WORK? A. SONG DID ALL OF THE ANALYSIS. I DID ALL OF THE WRITING WITH THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION OF THE LITERATURE, "PREVIOUS WORK ON NUTRIENT TRAPPING IN WETLANDS," PAGES -- WELL, BASICALLY PAGES THREE AND FOUR, WHICH WERE MAINLY FROM SONG, AND I JUST EDITED TO IMPROVE THE ENGLISH. OTHERWISE, I DID ALL THE REST OF THE WRITING. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 358 Q. YOU INDICATED, AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE NOTES, THAT YOU WOULD TESTIFY BECAUSE SONG -- ESSENTIALLY, YOU DESCRIBED HIS BACKGROUND THAT HE WAS CHINESE, AND NOT FAMILIAR WITH OUR SYSTEM. IS IT REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT HIS FACILITY IN ENGLISH IS FAIRLY GREAT, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF THE TIME HE'S BEEN IN THE COUNTRY, AND HAVING WORKED THROUGH -- HE'S GETTING HIS DOCTORATE AT DUKE--- A. UH-HUH (YES). Q. ---SO, I ASSUME THAT THE LANGUAGE BARRIER IS NOT A MAJOR PROBLEM -- OR IS THAT NOT A FAIR ASSUMPTION? A. IT IS AND IT ISN'T. HIS ENGLISH IS GOOD, RELATIVE TO MANY OTHER FOREIGN STUDENTS. Q. OR CHINESE? A. YES, IT'S FAR SUPERIOR TO THAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE'S NOT -- HE DOESN'T APPRECIATE NUANCES AND MEANINGS, AND IS -- I THINK IT'S UNFAIR TO SUBJECT A GRADUATE STUDENT, UNLESS HE OR SHE IS WILLING, TO SOMETHING LIKE THIS PERIOD. BUT SOMEONE WHO'S A FOREIGNER, NOT -- WITHOUT THIS HIS NATIVE LANGUAGE, IT'S -- IT CAN BE A PERSONALLY, A DAMAGING EXPERIENCE. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 359 Q. YOU DESCRIBED SOME WORK YOU DID BACK IN 1981 FOR A SEPARATE LAWSUIT ON ANALYSIS AND GRAPHICS ON WATER LEVELS AND CONCENTRATIONS OF NUTRIENTS AT VARIOUS STRUCTURES WITHIN THE EPA. YOU INDICATED THAT THAT DATA HAD BEEN RECEIVED FROM JOHN DAVIS. A. SAY THAT AGAIN. Q. OKAY. A. SOMETHING DIDN'T--- Q. YOU INDICATED THAT YOU HAD RECEIVED SOME DATA FROM JOHN DAVIS. A. YOU PROVIDED A DATE, RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THAT STATEMENT. Q. 1991-ISH. A. 1991, OKAY. Q. OKAY, AND THAT YOU HAD DONE SOME ANALYSIS AND GRAPHIC WORK RELATING TO WATER LEVELS AND CONCENTRATIONS OF NUTRIENTS, PRIMARILY PHOSPHORUS, AT STRUCTURES WITHIN THE EVERGLADES PROTECTION AREA -- I MEAN, WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT STRUCTURES--- A. YES, YES. Q. ---OR CORPS OF ENGINEER STRUCTURES? A. YES. Q. AND THEN YOU DID THAT WORK WITH SONG? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 360 A. I DON'T THINK I SAID THAT. I DON'T BELIEVE--- Q. I'M SORRY, YOU'RE CORRECT. THAT WAS THE PUNCH LINE OF THE QUESTION. THAT DATA AND WORK THAT YOU DID, DID YOU EVER SHARE THAT ANALYSIS WITH SONG? A. NO. Q. DID YOU EVER SHARE IT WITH ANYONE? A. I'M SURE I SHARED IT WITH JOHN, PROBABLY HAVE SHARED IT WITH RICK. Q. BUT OTHER THAN THAT, IT HAS NOT BEEN REFLECTED IN ANYTHING THAT YOU'VE PUBLISHED OR WRITTEN? A. NO, HUH-UH (NO). Q. YOU INDICATED IN MARCH THAT YOU EXPECTED, TO SOME DEGREE, THAT SONG'S WORK WOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO THE TETRA TECH MODEL, BUT I DON'T THINK THAT EITHER I, OR BEN, AT THE TIME, ASKED THE FOLLOWING QUESTION, WHENCE SPRANG THAT ASSUMPTION, WHY DID YOU ASSUME THAT HIS WORK WOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO THE TETRA TECH MODEL? A. IT MAY HAVE BEEN THAT I HAD HAD A PHONE CALL TO INDICATE THAT, POSSIBLY FROM RON MUNSON. I DON'T REMEMBER THE STIMULUS. THAT PROBABLY WAS IT, THAT I'D RECEIVED A CALL FROM RON EXPRESSING INTEREST IN THE WORK, AND INDICATED THAT THAT MIGHT OCCUR. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 361 Q. DID YOU EVER HAVE ANY INVOLVEMENT WITH DR. GHERINI REGARDING HIS MODELING EFFORTS? A. REGARDING THESE MODELING EFFORTS? Q. GHERINI'S MODELING EFFORTS. A. NO. WITH REGARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA, NO. Q. SO, THAT WOULD EXTEND TO SONG'S WORK AS WELL? A. YEAH. YEAH. Q. DOES THE WORK REFLECTED IN EXHIBIT 27 GO TO PHOSPHORUS UPTAKE IN WETLAND TREATMENT AREAS IN GENERAL? A. BY "GO TO," YOU MEAN--- Q. USING YOUR WORDS, FROM SOMETHING YOU SAID BACK IN MARCH, YOU WERE ASKED ABOUT MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF PHOSPHORUS UPTAKE, AND YOU INDICATED YOU COULDN'T TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC ANALYSIS BEING DONE, THAT YOU WOULDN'T DEVELOP OPINIONS, BUT WOULD FOLLOW THE ANALYSIS IN THAT AREA THROUGH SONG. YOU FURTHER SAID YOU DIDN'T SEE SONG'S WORK GOING TO PHOSPHORUS UPTAKE IN THE EPA AND WETLAND TREATMENT AREAS, AND IT APPEARS TO ME -- AND CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG -- BUT THAT EXACTLY WHAT EXHIBIT 27 GOES TO. A. I DON'T REMEMBER WHAT I WAS REFERRING TO, BUT I DON'T THINK I EVER AT ANY POINT SAID THAT WE WOULD DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 362 NOT BE USING THOSE DATA, AND WORKING WITH WCA-2A DATA, BECAUSE WE CERTAINLY WERE. Q. UH-HUH (YES). I'M NOT MEANING TO SUGGEST THAT YOU DIDN'T INDICATE THAT YOU WOULDN'T BE WORKING WITH THE WCA-2A DATA--- A. YEAH. Q. ---I THINK YOU MADE THAT VERY CLEAR. A. SO, I MAY HAVE MADE MYSELF UNCLEAR IN THAT STATEMENT. Q. YOU INDICATED THAT YOU MIGHT, AT SOME POINT, HAVE CONCLUSIONS ON ISSUES LIKE THE SUPPORT -- YOUR ANALYSIS, YOUR AND SONG'S -- WOULD DEMONSTRATE, OR THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT WOULD DEMONSTRATE, SUPPORT FOR THE SCIENCE IN THE SWIM PLAN, REGARDING PHOSPHORUS UPTAKE. I THINK THAT WE WERE, IN PART, TALKING ABOUT THE AREAS IN WHICH THE CO-OP HAD DESIGNATED YOU AS AN EXPERT WITNESS. HAVE YOU REACHED CONCLUSIONS IN THAT AREA? A. NO. Q. DO YOU ANTICIPATE REACHING CONCLUSIONS IN THAT AREA BETWEEN NOW AND OUR APRIL 25 HEARING DATE? A. NO. Q. WHY NOT? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 363 A. I'M INTERESTED IN THIS EFFORT AS A MODEL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY. I'M INTERESTED IN APPLYING CERTAIN STATISTICAL METHODS TO DEVELOP MODELS USING DATA SETS THAT WE HAVE ACCESS TO, THAT WE FEEL REASONABLY COMFORTABLE WITH, TO DEVELOP PREDICTIVE MODELS OF WETLANDS NUTRIENT TRAPPING. I'M NOT INTERESTED IN SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS OF THOSE MODELS AT THIS POINT. Q. SO, IF I UNDERSTAND YOUR ANSWER, THIS WAS DEVELOPED MORE AS AN EXERCISE FOR THE STUDENT IN THE ABSTRACT, AND YOU WERE NOT INTENDING OR DESIGNING THIS WORK TO BE APPLIED TO A SPECIFIC SYSTEM IN A SPECIFIC LOCALE? A. THAT'S CERTAINLY ONE OBJECTIVE, AS AN EDUCATIONAL EXERCISE. A SECOND OBJECTIVE THAT I HAVE, AND I SUSPECT SONG HAS, TOO, IS TO DEVELOP USEFUL, PREDICTIVE MODELS. BUT NEITHER HE, AS FAR AS I KNOW -- AND I HAVE NO REASON TO EVEN QUESTION THIS -- NEITHER HE NOR I HAVE INTEREST IN SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS. WE WOULD BE DISAPPOINTED IF WE DEVELOPED A PREDICTIVE MODEL, THAT WE INTENDED TO BE USEFUL FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSES WAS NOT USEFUL IN SOME APPLICATION, BUT WE ARE NOT DEVELOPING THIS FOR A SPECIFIC APPLICATION. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 364 Q. OKAY. WOULD YOU BE COMFORTABLE THEN, TRYING TO APPLY EITHER OF -- EFFECTIVELY THERE ARE TWO MODELS IN THIS PAPER. A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) Q. WOULD YOU BE COMFORTABLE, THEN, TRYING TO APPLY EITHER OF THOSE MODELS TO A SPECIFIC SITUATION IN SOUTH FLORIDA? A. I'M UNCOMFORTABLE APPLYING THE WCA-2A MODEL FOR REASONS AS STATED IN THE PAPER. I AM NOT, AT THIS POINT, UNCOMFORTABLE ABOUT THE MODEL FROM THE CROSS-SECTIONAL DATABASE, SUBJECT TO CONSTRAINTS THAT ONE WOULD NORMALLY PUT ON A CROSS-SECTIONAL MODEL, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIMITATIONS OF THE DATA. Q. WHAT IS IT ABOUT THE 2A MODEL THAT YOU'RE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH? A. I DON'T FEEL THAT I UNDERSTAND THE FLOW PATHS, AND WHAT I WOULD CALL THE EFFECTIVE INVOLVED AREA, OR TREATING AREA OF WCA-2A. AND I DON'T THINK -- I DON'T FEEL THAT THIS SIMPLE MODEL, CAPTURES ADEQUATELY THE WATER MOVEMENT AND THE NUTRIENT MOVEMENT. Q. THAT MODEL, TO ME, SEEMS TO TAKE LOADING IN, DEPTH, AND PREDICTS CONCENTRATION OUT, BASED DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 365 ON -- I DON'T WANT TO SAY NONLINEAR, BECAUSE IT'S LINEAR, BUT A--- A. IT'S NONLINEAR. Q. DO YOU CALL IT NONLINEAR BECAUSE IT HAS A BREAK POINT? A. WELL, THE MODEL -- THE WCA-2A MODEL IS, AS DESCRIBED IN THE PAPER, BASED ON A SMOOTH, WHICH FOLLOWS THE SHAPE OF THE DATA. Q. DID YOU EVER -- HAS IT EVER BEEN BROUGHT TO YOUR ATTENTION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TOPOGRAPHICAL MAPPING EFFORT AND HYDROGRAPHIC EFFORT WAS DONE IN WCA-2A BY THE CO-OP? A. WHO DID? Q. THE CO-OP. A. BUT WHO, SPECIFICALLY? I'M JUST TRYING TO--- Q. A LONG LINE OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN THAT. DR. LARSON HAS BEEN INVOLVED; MR. OWENS HAS BEEN INVOLVED, AS A PROFESSIONAL LAND SURVEYOR; KEITH AND SCHNARRS, AN ENGINEERING FIRM IN FLORIDA HAS BEEN INVOLVED. ACTUALLY, I THINK THEY'RE BEYOND FLORIDA, BUT WELL-KNOWN IN FLORIDA. AND OTHERS. BUT HAVE YOU EVER -- MAYBE WE CAN DO IT DIFFERENTLY. HAVE YOU EVER SEEN ANY TOPOGRAPHIC DATA ON WCA-2A THAT WOULD HELP ADDRESS SOME OF DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 366 THESE CONCERNS ABOUT THE LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF FLOW PATHS, ETCETERA? A. I DON'T RECALL. I HAVE HEARD OF SOME WORK OF THAT NATURE, NOT THE SPECIFIC PEOPLE YOU IDENTIFY--- Q. TOM JENNINGS--- A. ---I'M NOT INTERESTED IN THAT, BECAUSE I'M -- WE'RE NOT INTERESTED IN DEVELOPING A MODEL OF THAT SPECIFIC WETLAND--- Q. I UNDERSTAND. A. ---SO, IN OTHER WORDS, THAT MAY HAVE CROSSED MY LINE OF SIGHT, BUT I WOULDN'T HAVE FOCUSED ON IT, WITH EMPHASIS ON THE OBJECTIVES HERE. Q. OKAY. IF IT COULD BE ESTABLISHED THAT 2A WAS HOMOGENEOUS, WOULD THAT REMOVE MANY OF THE CONCERNS YOU HAVE ABOUT APPLYING THE 2A MODEL? MS. RAEPPLE: OBJECTION TO FORM. MR. FITZGERALD: HE'S AN EXPERT. IT'S A HYPOTHETICAL. IF YOU CAN ANSWER IT. A. THAT -- IF IT WAS HOMOGENEOUS, OR RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS, AND IT WAS LOADED IN A WAY THAT GAVE INDICATION OF THE FACT THAT THAT HOMOGENEITY INDICATED THAT THE ENTIRE -- ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA WAS CONTRIBUTING, THEN THAT WOULD RAISE MY COMFORT LEVEL. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 367 Q. DO YOU KNOW IF SONG CONSIDERED OR ATTEMPTED TO CONSIDER THAT ASPECT OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 2A AT THE TIME HE WAS DEVELOPING THE MODEL? A. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THE MODELING APPROACH THAT WE'RE USING HERE, JUST IS NOT INTENDED FOR THAT PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Q. GIVEN THAT CONSTRAINT, IS THAT MODELING EFFORT THEN USEFUL IN ANY WAY IN STA DESIGN WORK? A. I THINK THAT IT COULD BE. Q. DOES THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE PROVIDE ANY DATA ON FLOW PATH AND FLOW VOLUMES, FLOW INFORMATION GENERALLY? A. NO, IT DOES NOT. Q. SO, THAT THE MODEL BASED ON THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE IS MISSING THE SAME UNDERLYING DATA THAT IS ABSENT FOR THE 2A MODEL? A. IT'S CERTAINLY CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE ARE WETLANDS IN THAT DATABASE THAT HAVE FLOW PATHS THAT WOULD CAUSE THE SAME SORT OF CONCERN. Q. OKAY. SO, THAT'S ACROSS THE PAPER? A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY). Q. IS IT FAIR TO SAY THEN, IN ANY APPLICATION OF THESE TYPES OF MODELS -- THE TWO TYPES OF MODELS THAT YOU HAVE IN THERE, YOU WOULD HAVE TO APPLY DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 368 THEM WITH GREAT CARE, AND SUBSTANTIAL KNOWLEDGE OF THE HYDROLOGY OF THE WETLAND INVOLVED? A. APPLICATION OF ANY MODEL OUGHT TO BE INVOLVED WITH -- OUGHT TO APPLY -- THAT APPLICATION SHOULD HAVE CARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. Q. THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE THAT WAS UTILIZED TO DEVELOP EXHIBIT 27'S BROAD MODEL, AS OPPOSED TO THE 2A MODEL, DOES THAT DATABASE MAKE ANY DISTINCTION AMONGST WETLAND TYPE -- AND BY TYPE, I MEAN MARSH VERSUS SUBSURFACE FLOW, VERSUS UPLAND FOREST? A. I DON'T KNOW. Q. OKAY. IS THERE ANY WEIGHTING OF DATA IN THAT DATABASE, FOR EXAMPLE, TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IMPROPER WEIGHTING BETWEEN WETLAND THAT MAY BE SAMPLED MONTHLY AS ONE THAT MAY BE SAMPLED QUARTERLY? A. NO. Q. DO YOU THINK THAT THAT TYPE OF WEIGHTING SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN DEVELOPING A MODEL? A. I THINK THAT THAT HAS MERIT TO IT. I'VE NOT SEEN THAT APPLIED TOO OFTEN IN CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES LIKE THESE, BUT THERE'S AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE FOR DOING SOMETHING LIKE THAT. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 369 Q. ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE TYPE OF WETLANDS THAT ARE, IN FACT, INCLUDED IN THE NATIONAL DATABASE? A. NO. Q. SO, YOU DON'T KNOW IF CYPRESS ARE INCLUDED AND SUBSURFACE, AND UPLANDS, OR FOREST AND WHATEVER? A. THAT'S CORRECT. Q. DO YOU KNOW IF SONG QIAN HAS THAT DETAILED KNOWLEDGE OR INFORMATION? A. HE MIGHT, BUT I SUSPECT NOT. Q. IN UTILIZING THE DATA -- THE DATA SET, WHICHEVER THE TWO PEOPLE PROVIDED THAT YOU IDENTIFIED, DO YOU KNOW WHAT TYPE OF SOFTWARE CONVERSION WAS USED, HOW YOU CONVERTED THAT DATA SET TO -- I ASSUME A COMPUTER PROGRAM OF SOME SORT WAS USED TO RUN THE DATA SET AND GENERATE THE ANALYSIS? A. DO THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS? Q. YEAH. A. NO, BUT THAT'S FAIRLY -- I DON'T REMEMBER WHAT FORMAT IT WAS PROVIDED, BUT IT'S FAIRLY STANDARD PROCEDURE TO CONVERT FROM, SAY, A SPREADSHEET OR WHATEVER, ASCII, OR WHATEVER IT WAS. Q. OKAY. DO YOU KNOW HOW YOUR SOFTWARE CONVERSATION SYSTEM WOULD TREAT MISSING DATA? A. ONE NEEDS TO BE CAREFUL OF THAT TO SEE HOW THE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 370 PARTICULAR -- WE WERE USING S PLUS, AND S PLUS MEANS A DESIGNATION OF N/A FOR A MISSING DATA POINT. WE JUST HAVE TO BE CAREFUL THAT THAT'S INSERTED. Q. HOW IN YOUR ANALYSIS -- WELL, QIAN DID THE ANALYSIS. DID YOU REVIEW THAT TO ENSURE THAT IT WAS PROPERLY DONE, AND--- A. I TALKED TO HIM AT LENGTH ABOUT INTERPRETATION IN ANALYSIS. Q. HOW DID THE ANALYSIS ACCOUNT FOR BELOW DETECTION LIMIT VALUES IN THE NATIONAL DATABASE? A. SOMETHING THAT WAS REPORTED BELOW DETECTION LIMIT? Q. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) A. I'LL TRY TO REMEMBER. WE HAD SOME -- IT MAY HAVE BEEN THAT WE JUST KICKED THEM OUT. WE HAD SOME THAT WERE -- OR IT MAY HAVE BEEN THAT THEY WERE REPORTED AS ZERO. I'M TRYING TO REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED WHEN WE MADE THAT TRANSFORMATION, THE 1-PLUS. NO DETECTABLE, OKAY. SONG -- YEAH, SONG SET THEM EQUAL TO ZERO. Q. WOULD THE SAME THING BE TRUE FOR THE WCA-2A ANALYSIS? A. I SUSPECT NOT, BECAUSE WE DIDN'T RUN INTO THE SAME PROBLEM WITH THE -- WITH THE OUTLET. THE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 371 TREATMENT OF THE RESPONSE IN SETTING IT EQUAL TO ZERO IS -- WAS A GOOD QUESTION. I SUSPECT WHEN WE WORK ON HIS DISSERTATION, WE'RE GOING TO THINK ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO MAYBE KICKING THEM OUT AND SEEING WHETHER IT MATTERS. I DON'T REMEMBER THAT WE HAD THAT PROBLEM WITH WCA-2A. WE CERTAINLY DIDN'T HAVE TO APPLY THE TRANSFORMATION TO THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE. Q. WHAT DOES A ZERO CONCENTRATION MEAN IN THAT MODEL? A. WELL, IN ALL LIKELIHOOD IT'S MEANINGLESS, BECAUSE ONE WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE ZERO CONCENTRATION OF PHOSPHORUS. I DON'T -- I DON'T THINK THAT IT MAKES MUCH DIFFERENCE, AND I CAN'T RECALL THE SPECIFIC CONVERSATION, BUT IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WE LOOKED AT TREATING -- IN ONE CASE, REMOVING THOSE OBSERVATIONS, TREATING THEM AS MISSING, AND IN OTHER CASES, DOING WHAT SONG DID, WHICH WAS TO ADD ONE. Q. IF THEY WERE JUST MISSING, AND YOU COULD REPLACE THOSE JUST MISSING VALUES WITH ACTUAL VALUES, DATA POINTS THAT WOULD APPEAR IN, YOU KNOW, THE TABULAR GRAPHICS, COULD THAT CHANGE THE LINEARITY OF THE ANALYSIS, OR EVEN CHANGE THE TYPE OF MODEL YOU WOULD DEVELOP? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 372 A. MY SUSPICION IS THAT IT WOULDN'T CHANGE IT TO ANY GREAT DEGREE. THEY ARE VERY SMALL VALUES. Q. IF YOU CAN LOOK AT THE -- GRAPH FIVE, FOR EXAMPLE, IN EXHIBIT 27 -- OR FIGURE FIVE, IT'S THE "INPUT PHOSPHORUS LOADING AND OUTPUT CONCENTRATION FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE." A. UH-HUH (YES). Q. ON THE X-AXIS, WHICH IS -- THAT'S NOT A LOG FUNCTION, IS IT? YES, IT IS--- A. YES, IT IS. Q. ---IT'S A LOG FUNCTION. AS WE GO FROM THE FIRST DATA ENTRY, AT ZERO OVER TO ROUGHLY 1.5 ON THE X-AXIS, THE P LOADING, THEY'RE ALL REPORTED AS ZERO VALUES. A. THEY'RE ALL -- THEY'RE NOT REPORTED AS ZERO VALUES, THEY'RE DOWN IN THAT ZERO RANGE. IF YOU WANTED TO SEE WHAT VALUES THEY ACTUALLY WERE, YOU'D EITHER GO TO THE DATA SET AND -- WELL, YOU'D GO TO THE DATA SET AND LOOK AT THEM. Q. DID YOU DO THAT? A. NO. Q. DID QIAN DO THAT? A. I HAVE NO IDEA WHETHER HE DID. HE MAY HAVE. Q. CONTINUING OUT TO ALMOST THE 100 GRAM METERS PER, DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 373 SQUARED PER YEAR, THERE ARE, BEYOND 1.5, OUT TO ALMOST 100, THERE ARE -- IT'S HARD, YOU CAN'T COUNT THEM EXACTLY, BECAUSE OF THE OVERSTRIKES, BUT THERE'S A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL DATA POINTS THAT ARE REFLECTED AS ZEROS. A. YES. Q. NOW--- A. I TAKE THAT BACK. THEY LOOK LIKE, ON THIS GRAPH TO BE ZEROS. I DON'T WANT TO BE ON THE RECORD TO SAY THAT THEY'RE ZEROS WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE DATA. Q. IF YOU CAN GO BACK TO FIGURE ONE, WHICH IS INPUT AND OUTPUT PHOSPHORUS LOADING IN SELECTED NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE WETLANDS FROM KADLEC AND NEWMAN IN '92. MR. BURGESS: TOM, DO YOU HAVE A BATES NUMBER ON THAT PAGE? MR. FITZGERALD: THE ONE I'M WORKING FROM DOESN'T HAVE A BATES NUMBER. IT'S THE VERY FIRST GRAPHIC, THOUGH. JUST A SECOND. I CAN GET IT FOR YOU. MR. BURGESS: OKAY. MR. FITZGERALD: 13890. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 374 MR. BURGESS: OKAY. Q. (BY MR. FITZGERALD) THAT'S -- WOULD YOU AGREE THAT THAT'S A PRETTY GOOD FIT OF THE DATA TO THE LINE? A. WELL, IS -- AGAIN, YOU'RE ASKING ME IF I FEEL THAT THIS LINE IS A GOOD FIT TO THE PATTERN IN THE DATA? Q. YEAH. A. NO. Q. WHY NOT? A. BECAUSE THERE'S A -- YOUR EYE CAN JUST SEE A CLOUD THAT FORMS A SHAPE OTHER THAN LINEAR. Q. OKAY. WHAT TYPE OF MODEL WOULD YOU USE, JUST LOOKING AT THE DATA CLOUD? A. WELL, WE MADE THE ARGUMENT--- Q. FOR SOMETHING LIKE THAT? A. ---OF COURSE, IN THIS PAPER, THAT A SMOOTHING APPROACH, USING THE GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODELS WAS AN APPROPRIATE WAY OF LOOKING AT DATA THAT HAD A SHAPE THAT APPEARED TO BE NONLINEAR. Q. IF THERE ARE, IN FACT, TRUE DATA POINT VALUES FOR WHAT APPEAR TO BE REFLECTED AS ZEROS, IN FIGURE FIVE THAT WE WERE JUST LOOKING AT, WOULD YOU REEVALUATE THE APPROPRIATENESS OF USING THE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 375 SMOOTHING MECHANISMS THAT WERE EMPLOYED IN THE PAPER? A. I THINK THE SMOOTHING MECHANISMS ARE USEFUL IN ANY EXPLORATION AND MODELING APPROACH, PERIOD. IF WE WENT BACK AND HAD OTHER EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THOSE WERE NOT DETECTABLE, OR THERE WAS REASON TO SAY THAT THEY WERE SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM ZERO, BY ALL MEANS, YOU'D WANT TO PUT THEM BACK -- PUT IN NEW VALUES AND REEVALUATE THE SITUATION. Q. BASED ON WHAT YOU KNOW OF WCA-2A AND ITS WATER SOURCE AND THE FUNCTIONING OF THAT ECOSYSTEM, YOU WOULD NEVER EXPECT A ZERO CONCENTRATION VALUE IN SURFACE WATER IN WCA-2A, WOULD YOU? A. IT DEPENDS ON THE METHODS OF ANALYSIS THAT ARE BEING USED. I SUSPECT THAT THERE WOULD BE RELATIVELY FEW, BUT I DON'T KNOW WHAT METHODS ARE BEING USED BY THOSE WHO WOULD BE TAKING -- TAKING DATA. Q. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT THE SIGNIFICANCE IS IN THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE, THERE'S DISCUSSION IN THE PAPER OF ANALYZING IN TWO PIECES. A. CAN YOU IDENTIFY THE PAGE? Q. PAGE 12 OF THE DOCUMENT, THE NUMBERED PAGE, WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY PIECEWISE LINEARITY? DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 376 A. THAT MEANS THAT A MODEL THAT IS PIECEWISE LINEAR HAS TWO STRAIGHT LINE SEGMENTS CONNECTED AT A JOINING POINT. Q. WHAT DO YOU CALL THE JOINT POINT? A. WELL, YOU CAN CALL IT JUST THAT. Q. I'M SURE I SAW A WORD IN HERE FOR IT. WELL, IT'S NOT THAT IMPORTANT. A. WE DID, I THINK WE CALLED IT SOMETHING ELSE, TOO. I DON'T REMEMBER. Q. YOU SAY ON PAGE 12, IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS, THAT YOU OBSERVED AN OBVIOUS PATTERN IN THE DATA. WAS THAT REFERRING TO THE NADB DATA, OR THE WCA-2A DATA? A. CAN YOU SHOW ME WHERE THAT IS? Q. THIRD PARAGRAPH FROM THE BOTTOM, FIRST PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS, THIRD LINE DOWN, MIDDLE OF THE LINE, "HOWEVER"--- A. YEAH. THAT WAS A COMBINATION OF LOOKING AT, INITIALLY, THIS GRAPH RIGHT HERE, WHICH MADE ME CONCERNED. THAT WAS THE FIRST FIGURE IN THE PAPER, AND THEN THE -- SOME OF THE OTHER FIGURES, INCLUDING THIS -- THE FIGURE FIVE, I GUESS THAT'S--- Q. "CHANGE-POINT," THAT'S WHAT YOU CALL IT. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 377 A. YEAH, CHANGE-POINT. Q. WHAT DOES THE GREEK SYMBOL MEAN? WHAT IS THAT? A. IS THAT PHI? Q. WE RARELY USE THAT ONE IN LAW. OKAY, PHI, PHI AND PI. YOU STATE THAT THE, AFTER OBSERVING THE OBVIOUS PATTERN, THAT YOUR ANALYSIS WAS DATA-DRIVEN, NOT THEORY-DRIVEN OR HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN--- A. UH-HUH (YES). Q. ---IN ORDER TO REACH A PREDICTIVE MODEL. A. YES. Q. IF IT WERE DEMONSTRATED TO YOU THAT THE DATA SET WAS INCORRECT, AND THAT THE CORRECT DATA SET SUPPLIES VALUES FOR ALL THOSE REFLECTED AS ZERO IN FIGURE FIVE, WOULD YOU HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE VALIDITY OF THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR THAT MODEL? A. IF WE FOUND THAT SOME OF OUR NUMBERS WERE IN ERROR, THAT IS, THE DATA SET WAS IN ERROR, CERTAINLY, WE'D LIKE TO GO BACK AND REDO IT. Q. AND YOU INDICATED AN UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE WAS -- THERE'S AN ENHANCEMENT AVAILABLE OR GOING TO BE AVAILABLE, THROUGH KNIGHT, ON THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 378 A. YES. Q. DO YOU KNOW WHEN THAT'S GOING TO BECOME AVAILABLE? A. AS FAR AS I KNOW, THAT'S AVAILABLE NOW. Q. HAS ANY EFFORT BEEN MADE TO GO BACK AND VERIFY THOSE DATA POINTS? A. WE DON'T HAVE THE DATA YET, SO WE CAN'T. Q. SO, IT'S AVAILABLE; BUT YOU DON'T HAVE IT? A. I DON'T HAVE IT. Q. OKAY. DO YOU PLAN TO DO THAT? A. TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT THIS? YEAH, I'D LIKE TO LOOK AT THAT. THE POINT IS A REASONABLE ONE, AND I'D LIKE TO LOOK AT THAT. Q. THE BREAK-POINT OR CHANGE-POINT, PHI, OF 1.5, YOU SUGGEST MIGHT REPRESENT THE LONG-TERM PHOSPHORUS ACCUMULATION RATE. HOW DID YOU COME TO THAT CONCLUSION? A. THAT'S -- THAT REFLECTED, AS I MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH, THIS WAS A DATA-DRIVEN EXERCISE FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSES, AND SO WITH SOME TENTATIVENESS, LOOKED AT THAT CHANGE-POINT OR BREAK-POINT, OR JOINING-POINT, WITHOUT NECESSARILY DRAWING CONCLUSIONS, BUT IT SEEMED FROM MY DISCUSSIONS WITH SONG, THAT WE MIGHT OFFER A FEW DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 379 THOUGHTS WITH REGARDS TO WHY THERE WAS THIS -- WHY THERE WAS A NONLINEARITY, AND THE ONE OPTION THAT CAME TO MIND WAS THIS HYPOTHESIS THAT LONG-TERM -- IF INDEED THE NOTION OF A LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM ACCUMULATION WAS REASONABLE, THAT BELOW A CERTAIN AREA LOADING, THAT LONG-TERM LOADING LIMIT WAS NOT REACHED, AND THEREFORE, THE OUTPUT CONCENTRATION WAS LARGELY INDEPENDENT OF THE INFLUENT AREA OF LOADING. Q. DOES THAT CHANGE -- IS THAT CHANGE-POINT REFLECTED IN ANY OF THE GRAPHICS HERE THAT WE CAN LOOK AT AND--- A. YOU CAN SEE IT IN THE PIECEWISE LINEAR MODEL, WHICH IS TOWARDS THE BACK. THAT'S THIS SECOND FROM THE LAST PAGE. Q. FIGURE TEN, PARTIAL RESIDUAL PLOT OF FACTOR I, IN PIECEWISE DRIVE FOR THE NADB? A. YEAH, YOU CAN ALSO SEE IT IN THE -- YOU CAN SEE IT IN THE FIGURE FIVE THAT WE WERE REFERRING TO AS WELL. Q. WHEN THE DATA BEGINS ITS UPWARD PROGRESSION--- A. THAT'S CORRECT. Q. ---ROUGHLY FROM ZERO? A. YEAH. DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 380 Q. THAT'S -- BECAUSE OF THE LOG SCALE, THAT'S ROUGHLY 1.5? A. 1.5 IS ACCORDING TO THE OPTIMIZATION CRITERIA, AND IS THE BEST CHOICE. Q. NOW, YOU INDICATE THAT YOU COMPARED ALL THIS AGAINST THE RICHARDSON-CRAFT UPPER BOUNDS, USING YOUR OPTIMAL VALUE OF--- A. WELL, ALL WE DID WAS USE THE RICHARDSON-CRAFT -- WELL, WE TOOK THE VALUE OF ONE, AND FOUND THAT IT DIDN'T CHANGE THE ERRORS ON THE SQUARE, GREATLY. Q. OKAY, WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT -- WHAT DOES THE RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES TELL YOU? A. IT'S A MEASURE OF FIT OF THE MODEL. IT'S THE SUM OF SQUARE -- IT'S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUM OF SQUARED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DATA POINT AND THE PREDICTION FROM THE MODEL. Q. OKAY. AND BASED ON CONDUCTING THAT ANALYSIS, WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE FIT OF THE NATIONAL -- THE NADB AS A HIGH CORRELATION OR A HIGH FIT BETWEEN THE DATA AND THE MODEL? A. I DON'T HAVE ANY BASIS FOR COMPARISON TO SAY WHETHER IT'S HIGH OR GOOD OR NOT. Q. SO, THERE'S NO EQUIVALENT IN LOOKING AT THE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 381 RESIDUAL SUMS OF SQUARES ANALYTICAL METHOD TO THE R VALUE IN A--- A. SURE, YOU COULD -- YOU COULD HAVE A -- YOU COULD CONVERT TO AN R SQUARED IF YOU WANTED TO, FROM A RESIDUAL SUM OF SQUARES. WE DIDN'T DO THAT. Q. CAN YOU ESTIMATE IT GROSSLY? A. NO, I COULDN'T EVEN DO THAT. Q. THE BAYESIAN APPROACH THAT YOU SUGGEST IN THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PAPER ON PAGE 13--- A. UH-HUH (YES). Q. ---CAN YOU DESCRIBE WHAT A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS IS? A. BAYESIAN INFERENCE IS A SCHOOL OF STATISTICS. CLASSICAL OR FREQUENTIST INFERENCE IS THE OTHER COMMON SCHOOL OF STATISTICS. MOST PEOPLE ARE TAUGHT STATISTICS FROM A CLASSICAL OR FREQUENTIST PERSPECTIVE. THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS AND DECISION SCIENCES AT DUKE IS UNUSUAL IN THAT IT IS BAYESIAN, THAT IS, MOST OF THE STATISTICIANS IN THAT GROUP SUBSCRIBE TO THE BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE, AND THE BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE MAKES USE OF BAYES THEOREM, AND BAYES THEOREM IS A VERY SIMPLE RELATIONSHIP THAT DESCRIBES, IN ESSENCE, HOW YOU COMBINE INFORMATION FROM DISTINCT SOURCES. IT HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN CONTROVERSIAL. IT IS COMING DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 382 BACK INTO FAVOR NOW, AS PEOPLE RECOGNIZE THAT, IN MANY INSTANCES, SCIENCE PROCEEDS ACCORDING TO INFERENCE LIKE BAYES THEOREM. THAT IS, WE KNOW SOMETHING BEFORE UNDERTAKING A STUDY. WE UNDERTAKE A STUDY AND WE MIGHT LIKE TO POOL THOSE TWO PIECES OF INFORMATION, AND BAYES THEOREM PROVIDES A MECHANISM TO DO THAT. Q. SO, IT ALLOWS YOU TO TAKE DATA FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES, OR DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT SOURCES, AND UTILIZE THEM TO ANALYZE OR LEARN SOMETHING ABOUT--- A. IT ALLOWS US TO POOL THE INFORMATION. I WOULDN'T -- I GUESS I WOULDN'T CALL IT DATA, BECAUSE ONE MIGHT ARGUE, WHY NOT JUST -- WHY NOT JUST THROW ALL THE DATA INTO ONE BIG POT, AND DO A SINGLE ANALYSIS. Q. I ASSUME THERE'S A GOOD ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION. A. YES. Q. WHAT'S THE ANSWER? A. WELL, IT VARIES. IF YOU'RE -- IF YOUR -- FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOUR OBJECTIVE IS TO -- I GUESS I CAN STATE IT THROUGH THE SENTENCE HERE, "A NATURAL EXTENSION OF THIS WORK, WHEN PREDICTION OF NUTRIENT TRAPPING IS NEEDED IN A PARTICULAR DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 383 WETLAND, FOR WHICH INPUT-OUTPUT DATA EXIST, IS TO POOL THE CROSS SECTIONAL AND SINGLE-WETLAND MODEL USING BAYESIAN OR EMPIRICAL BAYES ANALYSIS." SO THAT, IN EFFECT, SETS OUT THAT PARTICULAR WETLAND AS WORTHY OF CONTRIBUTING MORE THAN JUST A SINGLE DATA POINT IN THE CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS. BUT THERE ARE MANY OTHER REASONS, TOO, MAYBE THE NATURE OF THE INFORMATION THAT DOESN'T ALLOW YOU TO POOL THE DATA SETS. FOR EXAMPLE, WE DON'T HAVE THE SAME DATA ON WCA-2A THAT WE HAVE ON THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE. WE HAVE DIFFERENT -- THE DATA IS OF A DIFFERENT NATURE. WE MAY JUST CHOOSE TO POOL THE PREDICTIONS, RATHER THAN POOL THE RAW DATA. Q. IF WE WANT TO PREDICT, OR DEVELOP A PREDICTION MODEL FOR A SPECIFIC TYPE OF A SYSTEM THAT'S UNIQUE, HOW VALID IS IT TO TRY A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OR EVEN A NONLINEAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED IN THE NADB MODEL HERE, TO A UNIQUE SYSTEM? A. IT'S HARD FOR ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SYSTEM THAT WE WOULD BE MAKING PREDICTIONS FOR IS TRULY UNIQUE, AND RELATES IN NO SENSE TO A PRIORI SCIENCE AND DATA. Q. IF THE ZERO VALUES IN GRAPH FIVE, OR LOOKING AT DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 384 GRAPH TEN, WHICH REFLECTS THEM AS WELL, ARE IN ERROR, WOULD THAT CHANGE, OR ALTER, RATHER, THE CHANGE-POINT, PHI? A. WELL, FIRST OF ALL, ANY TRUE ZERO VALUES, I SUSPECT ARE IN ERROR. AND IT SEEMS TO ME THE QUESTION IS, IS THAT ERROR OF ANY CONSEQUENCE, WHICH IS, I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY OBSERVATIONS HAVE -- TRULY HAVE ZERO ON THEM, AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE TRUE VALUE OF -- WOULD BE. Q. AS I UNDERSTAND THE STATEMENT IN THE PAPER, IT SAYS THAT THE VISUALIZATION AND THE DATA, DROVE THE ANALYSIS MECHANISM--- A. THAT'S CORRECT. Q. ---BECAUSE IT WAS PERCEIVED, APPARENTLY BY QIAN, SONG QIAN, THAT THIS WAS NONLINEAR. A. IT WAS PERCEIVED BY BOTH OF US. Q. OKAY, BY BOTH OF YOU. A. YES. Q. THE DATA SET LOOKS DIFFERENT, BECAUSE WE FILL IN, HYPOTHETICALLY, THOSE ZEROS WITH ACTUAL NUMERICAL VALUES THAT MOVE THE DATA POINT, THE VISUALIZATION IS GOING TO BE DIFFERENT, WILL IT NOT? A. IF -- YES. BUT, IF ONLY TWO OUT OF A HUNDRED DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 385 ARE DIFFERENT, AND THEY GO FROM ZERO TO .05, THE EFFECT IS INCONSEQUENTIAL. SO, AGAIN, I STAND ON MY PREVIOUS STATEMENT THAT IT DEPENDS ON THE NATURE OF THE DIFFERENCE, BUT I ALSO GO ON MY PREVIOUS STATEMENT WHICH IS THIS IS A GOOD POINT, AND IT'S SOMETHING WORTHY OF INVESTIGATION. Q. YOU INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RECENTLY INITIATED NON-PARAMETRIC BAYESIAN APPROACH CONDUCTED OR STARTED AT SOME POINT TO BE REFLECTED IN A FUTURE PAPER. A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) Q. WHO INITIATED THAT PARTICULAR EFFORT? A. THAT'S SONG'S DISSERTATION. Q. OKAY. AND THAT'S THE PRODUCT THAT YOU WERE SUGGESTING WE WOULDN'T SEE UNTIL THE END OF '94? A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) Q. IS THAT ALSO GOING TO FOCUS ON WCA-2A? A. I DON'T KNOW. MY HOPE IS THAT THE NORTH AMERICAN DATABASE WILL LOOK GOOD TO US, WE'LL BE COMFORTABLE WITH THE DATA, AND THAT WILL BE A PIECE OF IT. WHETHER WCA-2A IS AS WELL, I DON'T KNOW. Q. IF YOU HAVE A DATABASE WITH WIDELY DISPARATE DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 386 OPERATING SYSTEMS FOR ENVIRONMENTS REFLECTED IN THE DATA, AND YOU WANTED TO DEVELOP A MODEL THAT WAS THE MOST RELIABLE IN PREDICTING A SPECIFIC SYSTEM'S OPERATION, WOULD YOU SCREEN OUT THE OUTLIER TYPES OF SYSTEMS, AND TRY AND DEVELOP A DATA FIELD MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE SYSTEM YOU WANT TO PREDICT? A. IF I WAS USING A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO DEVELOP A MODEL TO PREDICT FOR A SPECIFIC SYSTEM, I WOULD LOOK FOR A DATA SET THAT HAD CHARACTERISTICS ON ALL VARIABLES THAT I THOUGHT WERE RELEVANT TO HOW THAT SYSTEM FUNCTIONED FOR THIS PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF -- FOR WHICH THE PREDICTION WAS INTENDED, AND COVER THAT -- COVER THAT SYSTEM, ALL AROUND IT. Q. OKAY. A. NOW, IF THE SYSTEM HAD A FIXED DEPTH, LET'S SAY, AND IT NEVER VARIED IN DEPTH, I WOULD LOOK FOR SYSTEMS THAT WERE AS CLOSE TO, AS POSSIBLE, THAT DEPTH, UNDER THE BELIEF THAT DEPTH WAS ONE POSSIBLE IMPORTANT DETERMINANT. Q. OKAY. WATER DEPTH AND RESIDENCE TIME ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE VERY IMPORTANT IN THE STUDY OF EUTROPHICATION IN LAKES, AND RESIDENCE TIME? A. (NODS AFFIRMATIVELY.) DR. RECKHOW VOLUME II PAGE 387 Q. AND YOU'RE SORT OF APPLYING THAT, BY ANALOGY, TO MARSH SYSTEMS, THEN, YOU WOULD LOOK FOR THE SAME KINDS OF THINGS? A. YEAH. Q. SO, YOU WOULD, GIVEN YOUR OPTION THEN, AS I UNDERSTAND IT, EXCLUDE FORESTED UPLANDS, WHE