STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS CASE NOs. 92-3038 92-3039 92-3040 SUGAR CANE GROWERS COOPERATIVE OF FLORIDA, INC., ROTH FARMS, INC., and WEDGWORTH FARMS, INC., and FLORIDA SUGAR CANE LEAGUE, INC., UNITED STATES SUGAR CORPORATION, and NEW HOPE SOUTH, INC., VOLUME I and FLORIDA FRUIT AND VEGETABLE ASSOCIATION, LEWIS POPE FARMS, W.E. SCHLECHTER & SONS, INC., and HUNDLEY FARMS, INC., Petitioners, vs. SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, Respondent, and MICCOSUKEE TRIBE OF INDIANS OF FLORIDA, the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION, and FLORIDA WILDLIFE FEDERATION, Intervenors. _____________________________________________________________ DEPOSITION OF DR. LEO C. POLOPOLUS _____________________________________________________________ ACCURATE REPORTING A/K/A MACDONALD COURT REPORTING SERVICE 204 West University Ave., Suite 7, Gainesville FL 32601 (904) 373-1126 ù (800) 329-1133 ù FAX (904) 375-6249 Pursuant to due notice, the deposition of the above- named witness was taken by the Respondent-Intervenor, the United States of America, before Mary Macdonald, Court Reporter and Notary Public, State at Large, at 204 West University Avenue, Gainesville, Florida, on Wednesday, April 14, 1993, commencing at 9:00 a.m. APPEARANCES: KEITH E. SAXE, Esquire, United States Department of Justice, Environment & Natural Resources Division, General Litigation Section, Post Office Box 663, Washington, D.C. 20044-0663; RICK BURGESS, Esquire, and SCOTT D. LIEBERMAN, Esquire, Peeples, Earl & Blank, One Biscayne Tower, Suite 3636, Two South Biscayne Boulevard, Miami, Florida 33131; PATRICK S. COUSINS, Esquire, Popham, Hail, Schnobrich & Kaufman, Ltd., 4000 International Place, 100 Southeast Second Street, Miami, Florida 33131; CAROL RAEPPLE, Esquire, Hopping, Boyd, Green & Sams, Post Office Box 6526, Tallahassee, Florida 32314; ALSO PRESENT: Lonnie L. Jones, Ph.D. Grace Johns, Ph.D. William Boggess, Ph.D. Thereupon, DR. LEO C. POLOPOLUS, being first duly sworn, testified as follows: DIRECT EXAMINATION BY MR. SAXE: Q Dr. Polopolus, I'm Keith Saxe, I'm an attorney with the United States Department of Justice and I represent the United States in the action Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida versus South Florida Water Management District. I'll be taking your deposition for this case today through Friday, and if necessary on some other date to be scheduled in the future. During this deposition I will be asking you a series of questions. You are required to give me your complete and honest answer to each question, unless your attorney instructs you not to answer. If for any reason you don't understand a question, please tell me and I'll try to clarify it. Dr. Polopolus, would you please state your full name and home address for the record. A Yes. My name is Leo Polopolus and my address is 4741 Northwest 8th Avenue, Gainesville, Florida, 32605. MR. SAXE: Ms. Court Reporter, would you mark those for identification, please? (Document entitled Memorandum, to Ms. Susan Pacheco, from Leo Polopolus, dated August 18, 1992, so marked as Polopolus Exhibit No. 1; Document entitled Biological Sketch, Leo C. Polopolus, so marked as Polopolus Exhibit No. 2; Document entitled Leo C. Polopolus, Selected Programs and Publications: Economics of Sugar, Vegetables and Fruit, so marked as Polopolus Exhibit No. 3.) BY MR. SAXE: Q Dr. Polopolus, I'm handing your three documents that have been marked for identification, Exhibits 1, 2 and 3. If you would take a look at the first document, No. 1, and identify it for the record. A This is a memorandum from me to Susan Pacheco of Peeples, Earl & Blank, just a transmittal letter that indicates enclosed are my biographic sketch and a Selected List of Publications. Q And would that be the documents that have been marked for identification as Nos. 2 and 3? A Yes, sir. Q Does Document No. 2 represent a relatively complete and current version of your Curriculum Vitae? A I believe it's the last one that I have prepared. Q Okay. And you've indicated that Document No. 3 is a list of publications? A It's a selected list of publications of mine dealing with the economics of sugar, vegetables and fruits, completed while at the University of Florida or with the Florida Department of Citrus. It does not include my earlier publications in these subject areas, while on the faculty at Louisiana State University. Q And I understand that if we need to take a look at copies of any of those omitted publications that you will check to see if you have copies for us. A If they're in print I'll be happy to provide them. Q That's great. Dr. Polopolus, what is your occupation? A I'm an agricultural economist. Q How long have you been an ag economist? A I've been an agricultural economist for thirty- three years. Q Would you describe your educational background, starting with high school? A Yes. I completed high school at Colton Union High School, Colton, California. I'm a life member of the California Scholastic Federation. From there I went to the University of California, Davis, where I obtained a Bachelor of Science degree in agricultural economics, with highest honors. Then I went to the University of California at Berkeley, and I received a Ph.D. in agricultural economics in 1960. Q Do you hold any other undergraduate degrees, other than the B.S. from U.C. Davis? A No. Q Any other graduate, advanced or professional degrees, besides the Ph.D. from U.C. Berkeley? A None. Q Do you specialize in any particular aspect or did you specialize in any particular aspect of ag economics in your education? A I'm fairly broadly trained in agricultural economics and management production economics, marketing, econometrics, policy. The Ph.D. dissertation focus was ÄÄ which dealt with the U.S. beet sugar industry, by the way ÄÄ had a focus on policy, public policy, and industrial organization. Q Have you received any other training that relates to the work you're doing in this case, besides the educational background that you have described? A It depends on what you mean by training. Q Any formal courses, any organized seminars, things of that nature? A There's been countless numbers of conferences, seminars, experiences with organizations, with groups, and I'll be happy to discuss them. Q Any that come to mind as being particular germane to the work that you're doing in this case? A Yes, some of them would be. For example, I was a member of the IFAS Water Resources Council for three years. I was Chairman of the University of Florida Water Research Center, which encompasses the College of Engineering, all the academic units at the University of Florida. I was previously on the Aquatic Weed Resource Council of IFAS. IFAS stands for the Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences at the University of Florida. In the area of sugar, I have been involved in work and conferences, meetings and consulting and advising, teaching, in a variety of contexts. Q Are these involvements, that you have just mentioned, listed on this Selected Programs and Publications, that's marked as Exhibit No. 3? A Some of them, yes. In addition to the sugar, I should also mention, I have been involved in, since vegetables are also an area of interest here for this particular project, I could say the same thing about vegetables involved in, like, for example, I was a consultant to the National Commission on Productivity, under President Nixon. In that respect I was involved in not only statewide but national issues of productivity that involved the fruit and vegetable industry. Q When was that? A That was the National Commission on Productivity experience, was in '72, '73 ÄÄ 1972/1973 period. Q Your reference to the IFAS Resources Council, is that what is listed here on Exhibit No. 3 as 3(g), the IFAS Marketing Task Force? Is that the same thing? A No, not at all. The IFAS Water Resource Council was formed in the early ÄÄ I should say mid-1970s and was operative through, I think, the early 1980s, to bring together all of IFAS resources on water quality and water resource issues. We had a special effort and my role, as Chairman of the Department of Food and Resource Economics at the time, was to try to muster and organize and recruit and carry out an economics program as part of the statewide effort in water resources. Q Your involvement with the resources council was from its inception through the early '80s, or. . . A Pretty much from its inception until the early '80s, yes. Q Are any of the particular involvements that you have been talking about present involvements, things that you're doing presently, or are they all things that you have done in the past? A Those particular activities are things in the past and not current. Q Okay. A I'm not currently involved in ÄÄ I'm not even aware that there is currently an IFAS Water Resources Council. I'm not involved if there is one. Q Okay. What were your duties with the Water Resources Council? A Again, as I indicated, my role, as the Chair ÄÄ the resource economist of the Department of Food and Resource Economics and my role was to assist in carrying out the IFAS mission in water resource economics. Q Were you involved in research in that capacity? A No, I was not directly involved in research, but in organizing research. Q So would you say it was administration? A It was more administrative and policy than it was in directly conducting the work. Q Did you review research? A Oh, yes, indeed, and one of the roles that I played in IFAS, in my tenure as chairman, was to develop a teaching, research and extension program in the natural resource and environmental quality area. For example, I brought together a team of people that we developed a specialization in a teaching program, in natural resource environmental economics; we developed, we think, one of the finest, at that time, one of the finest extension programs in Natural Resource and Economics in hiring Dr. Carriker, Dr. Comer, and other people, and I'm responsible for hiring such people as Dr. Boggess, Dr. Lini, Dr. Clouser, Dr. Mulkey, and many of the current players in the University of Florida's Natural Resource Team. So, I was not the researcher, but I was very much involved in the development of the program. Q Okay. Are there any other programs or affiliations that, besides the ones that you have mentioned, that you think have provided you experience or opportunities that are particularly germane to your work in this case? A My own research experience and my continuing interest in sugar economics, which culminated in a book I wrote on the subject, and also a continuing interest in vegetables and vegetable policy, which one piece of that was my role as editing a book recently released on vegetable trade. Q The sugar economics book that you're referring to, is that listed on Exhibit No. 3? A Yes. Q Would that be 3(o) on the second page of the document? A Which document, sir? Q Exhibit No. 3, the second page. A Yes. Q Is that the book? A Yes. Q Did the book deal with the sugar industry and environmental problems in the Everglades? A The sugar book was primarily oriented to the natural sugar and sweetener industry, which Florida was a part. It included cane sugar, beet sugar and high fructose corn syrup. It, in discussing both the cane production, domestic cane production and domestic cane milling and domestic cane refining, it obviously dealt with Florida. Q Did it deal with the environmental issues of South Florida? A No, it did not. Q Would you describe your employment history for me in chronological order, starting with your graduation from Berkeley? A Yes. My first full-time employment, except for that at the University of California, Berkeley, when I was a full-time research associate my last year there, but I went to my first academic appointment at Louisiana State University as Assistant Professor for three years and then was promoted to Associate Professor for the next two years, at which point ÄÄ that's the period, giving specific dates, Assistant Professor, LSU, 1960-63; Associate Professor, LSU, 1963-65. At that time I took an appointment with the Florida Citrus Commission, on the campus of the University of Florida, as a research economist for the Florida Department of Citrus. Within less than a year the director of the Research and Marketing Department of the Commission, located in Lakeland, resigned and I was appointed director. We split off the marketing from the economic research. I asked to be maintained in my directorship in Gainesville and for the remaining two or three years I was Director of Economics for a state agency, a state regulatory agency, and also had other marketing responsibilities. It was called Economic Research Department, the Florida Citrus Commission. Subsequently it's been changed to the Florida Department of Citrus. Q The distinction you described there, when you said the Commission split between the marketing function and what was the other one? A The economic ÄÄ at one time the agency had an Economic and Marketing Department. Q Okay. A When I became the director I became the Director of Economic Research, and Marketing Research continued to be headquartered in Lakeland. Q Okay. A So there was sort of a bifurcation there of responsibility. Then I left the Florida Department of Citrus, but remained at the University of Florida, became Professor of Food and Resource Economics for the University of Florida in 1969, January of 1969. Q So you were with the Florida Citrus Commission between '65 and '69? A That's correct, until December 31, 1968. January 1, 1969, I became a Full Professor of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Florida. Q Okay. A Within a matter of a few months I was asked by the new dean for the graduate school, an eminent physicist, University of Texas, to be a part-time assistant dean for the graduate school for the University of Florida. So in 1969, for a four-year period, I had a half- time appointment as Assistant Dean of the Graduate School with responsibilities across the whole campus, and Professor of Food and Resource Economics. In 1973 I resigned my role as assistant dean, half- time, it was like having two full-time jobs, to becoming the Chairman of the Department of Food and Resource Economics as Professor of Food and Resource Economics, and I was Chairman of that department for a ten-year period, 1973 through 1983. In 1983 I stepped down as Chair of the department and resumed my role as Professor of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Florida. Q Okay. And you have been with the University of Florida since 1983 in that capacity? A In that capacity, that is correct. Q Okay. During the course of your employment. . . Well, before I move off your chronology here, I asked you about employment after your graduation from Berkeley and you mentioned you were a full-time research assistant at Berkeley. A Yes. Q Was there any employment, between and during your undergraduate and graduate years, that was related to the subject matter of your work on the case? I don't need you to tell me, you know, your part-time jobs at McDonald's, that kind of thing, if any, but is there anything that comes to mind that you worked on? A No, except my full-time role as graduate research assistant, or whatever the title was, at Berkeley, in my last year there, 1959-1960, was to work on sugar policy and sugar marketing, and I spent full-time on that, and that also became my dissertation on the U.S. beet sugar industry and the structure and performance of that industry under government regulations and control. So in that context, I very intimately became familiar with sugar policy, as it affected both cane and beet industries in the United States. Q During the course of your professional and academic involvements, have you worked on any project that involved either economic or socioeconomic impact analyses of resource management actions that are proposed to remedy environmental problems? A With the construction of that question, as I understand it, and with some difficulty in scanning over thirty-three years of effort, when you add the word environmental problems, then I would have to say no to the question. Q All right. Let's work ÄÄ rather than going to fully qualified, let me work back from the basic end. Have you worked on any projects that involved economic or socioeconomic impact analyses, period? A Yes. Q Would you list them for me? A Well, there was a period of time in that period of time at LSU when my role was a regional economist and I had federal grants from the U.S. Department of Commerce and had a group of graduate students and others as staff members, and the concern there was ÄÄ if you recall, the economy, the U.S. economy, in the early '60s, was one of high unemployment rate and low economic development, and the Economic Development Administration in Washington and in state areas were trying to develop ways to deal with problems of unemployment and promote growth, economic growth, and in that capacity, in my role, both in teaching, graduate teaching, and in research, I carried out research for the area of Redevelopment Administration on how agribusiness or agriculture could be used to value added activities to promote the economy of a particular region, and that particular application happened to be south/central Louisiana, and how one could take agricultural production in that area and generate employment and income and growth. So I have a number of publications and other work that related to that effort. So that is one application of that. Q So, if I understand your testimony, this project to promote economic growth involved proposals, developmental proposals, some involving agribusiness and other agricultural undertakings. A It involved proposals, it involved theses work, dissertation research, publications, chapters in books, it involved theoretical pieces, it involved a whole series of effort that would be under my supervision and with some joint authorships and so forth. Q Did it involve any economic impact assessment projects, strictly called? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. BY MR. SAXE: Q Do you understand the question? A Not well. Q Okay. Did the work involve any projects quantifying economic impacts of a particular proposal? A It involved the economic impact of creating or adding value to agriculture product. It involved primarily investment feasibility: would it be feasible, economically feasible, to expand into the use of new technology? Let me give you an example of what was involved. Q Okay. A The U.S. Department of Agriculture was developing new technology and the development of new products. One product was sweet potato flakes. Okay. Brand new technology, wasn't applied, we took the research of the U.S. Department of Agricultures' Food Utilization Lab in New Orleans, where they developed a technical feasibility for utilizing the processes of manufacturing sweet potato flakes, and we applied that technical feasibility to whether or not that was economically feasible to actually produce sweet potato flakes and recover the investment of that facility by using locally grown sweet potatoes. Now, what's involved there is the determination of quasi-rents, total revenue streams, total operating costs, and so forth. Q Is there a difference between economic feasibility assessment or analysis, and an economic impact analysis? A There could be. Q What I'm looking for here is whether or not, in your role in this particular project or set of projects, you quantified the economic impacts in terms of changes in sales, income or employment of any of the proposed actions. The one you mentioned is applying sweet potato flake technology to develop that product, using local potatoes. A Yes. Q My question is, did you undertake to assess the economic impact of such a project? A Not in the sense that maybe you're leading to. That particular project did not then take that result and use multiplier analysis to determine what the community impact, let's say, would be. We were looking at the economic feasibility. But at about the same time we were looking at other projects in the Caddo-Bossier Parish to develop ÄÄ we developed a proposal and began the research to actually estimate employment and sales multipliers through original research and at teaching the graduate level at Louisiana State University I taught Leontief multiplier analysis and we did develop a research proposal that was funded by the Caddo- Bossier Parish Agribusiness Council, if I recall, and we had the cooperation of industry, broadly speaking, to undertake this kind of analysis. The problem with that was that in order to do and develop primary employment and income multipliers it became an accounting nightmare for many of the respondents and so we never got an adequate completion of that. I may say, in connection with economic impact, and I guess that the gist of your question is whether I had experience in doing economic impact analyses, and maybe a better way of characterizing that would be the work that I did with the Florida Department of Citrus. Where there is a state agency it has regulatory advertising and marketing research responsibility and as chief economist, in going before a state regulatory authority on numerous occasions, I presented the results of my work on what you might call an economic impact statement. What would be the economic impact of changing a regulation, with respect to a school lunch program? A diversionary program. What would be the economic impact of permitting importation of more foreign orange juice concentrate? Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So in that context I did conduct, or under my supervision had conducted studies of that nature. Q So in your involvement in the Florida Department of Citrus then you did quantify the economic impacts in terms of changes in sales, income and/or job employment, the proposal, concerning the school lunch program? A We did not look at the employment implications, but we looked at the sales implications. Q How about with respect to importing the frozen citrus? A Again, we usually did not, other than to ÄÄ you know, the question there was what would changes in tariff policy do to production levels, which then would have an impact on employment, and at that time we had employment multipliers in the citrus processing industry and they were estimated to be about. . . (Short interruption) BY MR. SAXE: Q Dr. Polopolus, in your understanding of the terms, would you call the analyses that you did at the Florida Department of Citrus, that you just mentioned, economic impact analyses? A Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how you define economic impact analyses. Q I guess what I'm asking is, given the way you would define economic impact analysis, would you call those analyses economic impact analyses? A Well, the question is whether we're talking about economic analyses, economic impact analyses. Certainly they're economic analyses. Q Okay. I'm asking about economic impact analyses. A They may or may not be. I think the more standard definition would include or could include employment implications. Q When you say the definition could include employment implications, would you consider an economic impact analysis, done in the circumstances of this case, to be an adequate one if it did not include employment impacts? A I think with respect to, say, the economic impact analysis, as I understand it under state law and under state regulations, and so forth, those analyses can be rather cursory and not too analytical and not, you know, not much research based on it, but in the context of this particular application that we would say economic impact would more appropriately include employment impact. Q Okay. So then would it be fair to say that the analyses that you did at the Florida Department of Citrus were not appropriate economic impact analyses? A No, I'm not saying that, that they're not appropriate. I'm saying in the context of what the application there ÄÄ for example, what is the impact of having a diversionary program, which sets aside X percent of the crop or X percent of the process product into a reserve pool, which is the secondary market; what is the economic impact of that? And there we use what we call price discrimination analysis and where we establish marginal revenues, we set the net marginal revenues equal to zero, we determine the impact of what that would be on lower revenue, we then turn around and look at that impact on consumers and what would that do to prices, and so on and so forth. So that's an economic impact analysis, in the sense that we're determining the impact on growers and impact on consumers and impact on the trade. Now, in the context in which we're talking about this project, we may have a different definition of economic impact, in the context of the particular problem. Q As a professor of agricultural economics or food and resource economics, does economic impact analysis have any special meaning or definition? A It's not in the standard textbook of agriculture economics. I mean, if you read a textbook of agriculture economics, in the beginning course in agriculture economics, to my knowledge, you can take the books that I have read or seen, economic impact analysis would not be something that would be a chapter heading or even a major sub-heading of a textbook. It may be included in a course, in some other kind of course, but not in general agriculture economics. It wouldn't have any special meaning. Q Are you aware of any scholarly texts, any textbooks, within the discipline, that are either wholly or partially devoted to the procedures for doing economic impact analyses? MR. BURGESS: In the discipline of agriculture economics? MR. SAXE: Yes. BY MR. SAXE: Q Or food and resource economics. A I'm not aware of any title of a book that says "Economic Impact Analyses", offered by, you know. . . Q Are you aware of any textbooks that have chapters on economic impact analyses? A I'm certainly aware of books that deal with Leontief input/output analyses. Q Would you spell that, please? A V-a-s-s-i-l-y L-e-o-n-t-i-e-f. Q Thank you. A Vassily Leontief was a guest of ours a few years ago, he's a Nobel Laureate in economics. Vassily is the author of what is known as "input/output analyses". He's the father of the technique, which shows the interdependencies of economics within an international economic framework. He's the economist that developed the primary concept of a multiplier and he's the father of that. Now, are there textbooks, chapters in textbooks, that deal with input/output analyses, as we know it from Leontief? There are dozens, hundreds. Are there similar books that are titled "Economic Impact Analyses"? I don't know of any. Q Okay. A Certainly there has been no Nobel Laureate, to my knowledge, on economic impact analyses. Q You mentioned the Leontief multiplier analysis in the context of what I think you called a Caddo-Bossier situation. A Yes. Q You said that, if I recall your testimony, that although you may have been involved in an initial attempt to do input and output analyses, in that context, that it turned into an accounting nightmare and it wasn't completed. A Right. Q Are there any other projects that you have worked on that have undertaken input/output analyses to quantify economic impacts, in terms of changes in sales, job income and employment? A I think the answer to that is we would all love to do that. As scholars we would love to have the opportunity of developing our own Leontief type input/output coefficients. The problem is the cost and the resources that are required to develop those original estimates. So what university economists have tended to do is rely on the U.S. Department of Commerce and to rely on them to develop the basic input/output multipliers, and so what you find is the adaptation of those multipliers for the purpose of developing estimates of inter-industry relationships from a set, you know, or given reference base. We had, when I was Chairman of the Food and Resource Economics Department, we had a major effort in this area and our department were probably the leaders in the State of Florida in working with the State of Florida Department of Commerce and other university economists in developing ÄÄ trying to develop better coefficients at a micro level. One of the problems that you have with the Leontief input/output coefficients is that they tend to be very aggregative, they tend to aggregate a two-sector SIC code as opposed to a four-sector or five-sector ÄÄ in other words, they tend to aggregate agriculture in general, and what we found, those of us in agriculture economics, at least in Florida, that have attempted to use input/output multipliers, we have found that sometimes the federal government's multipliers, as they apply to agriculture, do not dis- aggregate to the level by industry or they do not dis- aggregate to the level by county or by sub-region to the level we would like, and we try to do the best we can with the available data and make reasonable estimates from what is available. Q Are you familiar with the Rims 2 multipliers? A Generally. Q Are those among the U.S. Department of Commerce multipliers that you're referring to? A Yes. Q Have you ever used the Rims multipliers before this case? A I have utilized the work of others and I don't regard myself as presently a regional economist. So when it comes to multipliers, and even in this case I defer the specific estimate of multipliers to those experts who spend much of their career in ÄÄ so I defer to those, and in this particular application we also defer to those references of those individuals that have developed what we think are reasonable estimates. Q Let me see if I can close in on what I'm trying to get at in my questioning here. Have you ever developed an input/output model? A Yes, I did, in Caddo-Bossier Parish. Q That was the one you commenced the analysis, but did not complete it? A And I might explain why it was not completed, give you the reason for it. We were trying to determine the inter-industry relationship to agriculture, to non-agriculture, in northwest Louisiana. One of the key industries in northwest Louisiana, in addition to agriculture, happens to be natural gas and petroleum. What we were asking the natural gas and petroleum industries, of northwest Louisiana, was to give us the data in an accounting sense that bifurcated their data for just those two parishes, Caddo and Bossier Parish, and their relationship of buying inputs or selling supplies to agribusiness components. So it didn't work out. Also I think that I mentioned that I have taught Leontief input/output multipliers. I have had Mr. Leontief as my personal guest. I mean, I have listened to him in lectures. I have been trained by Mr. Leontief. I don't feel I'm a stranger to the analysis. Q And other than your work in the Caddo-Bossier case, you have never completed an input/output analysis of economic impacts on sales, income and employment? A Not directly. Q Okay. I asked you about Rims before and you testified that you used the work of others concerning Rims and you don't consider yourself a regional economist, but have you ever used Rims multipliers to estimate indirect or induced impacts? A Yes. Q In what? A In citrus. Q Could you tell me about that? A That's the application I think I mentioned with respect to what is the employment impact of a particular policy action in citrus and how that might impact employment and sales, and I don't have publications on this, but I have given papers and made presentations where, if I recall, the coefficient was ÄÄ unemployment, I can't recall the coefficient, but I can recall the sales coefficient on processing of citrus to be above 2.4, and the point we made with the industry and others, about value added agricultural industries, is that when there is a processing activity or a packing activity the sales and employment multipliers are much larger than when the agricultural product is not processed or packed locally. Q So the work that you have done, doing input analyses of the impact of citrus policies, looked not only at employment impacts, but also at sales impacts? A Yes. Q Okay. And I'm sorry, but did you indicate that you had used Rims multipliers? A Well, those are multipliers that are basically Rims. They are authored by other individuals. You know, they're in publications of other individuals. Q Are they taken from Rims multipliers? A I believe they are. Q Okay. A My understanding is that they are. Q Have you ever estimated indirect or induced impacts by any other techniques? A Well, I have estimated economic impacts within. Is the question in the context of Leontief input/output analyses? Is that the question? Q Yes. A I don't recall. Q Okay. Moving back up to my initial question in this colloquy, about work you might have done on economic impact and assessment of resource management actions, proposed to remedy environmental problems. Your testimony so far sounds to me like it's concerned only with developmental proposals, proposals to stimulate economic growth or develop a particular industry; is that a fair characterization of your testimony? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. ANSWER BY DR. POLOPOLUS: Well, within the ÄÄ I'm not sure I understand the question, but it's not a characterization, it doesn't adequately characterize my output, all of my output. BY MR. SAXE: Q Would you identify for me any input/output analysis of economic impacts that you have done that pertained to proposed actions involving environmental remedies, as opposed to economic development? A Placed in the context, as I understand your question, when you constrain it to input/output analysis, the answer is I can't recall having done input/output analyses in that context. Q Have you. . . A Other than what I have indicated. Q Which of the projects that you worked on would you say did involved ÄÄ when you say other than what you have indicated, I'm not recalling whether you indicated any of your work so far dealt with environmental remedies as opposed to. . . A Oh, environmental remedies, I'm sorry if that's part of your question. . . Q Okay. The focus of my question is economic impact analyses or input/output analyses of economic impacts of proposed environmental remedies. A No, that's not an area ÄÄ that's not my bag. Q So your work, as I am attempting to characterize your testimony before, your work involves, to the extent that you had done input/output analyses or economic impact analyses, it's been of economic developmental activities? A Economic activities, maybe. Q Okay. That's fine, thanks. Are you familiar with the term benefit cost analysis or cost benefit analysis? A I have heard the term. Q Does it have a specialized meaning in your profession? A Very specialized meaning. Q Have you ever done any benefit cost analysis or cost benefit analysis? A Again, that is in the province of natural resource economists and I'm not prepared to testify, nor am I actively involved in "benefit cost analyses". Q Okay. Dr. Polopolus, I'd like to talk a bit about your retention as a potential expert witness in the case. A Yes. Q You have been designated by the League to give potential expert testimony in a case on the South Florida Water Management District's ongoing economic study and on regional and statewide economic impacts of the SWIM Plan. Is that consistent with your understanding of the potential scope of your expert testimony? A Yes, it is. Q Are there any additional areas you might be giving expert testimony? A Would you restate what you just said? Q Yes. As a matter of fact, if you would like to take a look at the League's expert witness designation, that would be fine. . . Let me grab that. There you go. A All right. Q My question is, are there any areas, besides the District's ongoing economic study and regional and statewide economic impacts of the SWIM Plan, that you might give expert testimony on in this case? A I don't intend to. I'm not aware of. Q What do you understand by the reference to the District's ongoing economic study? A What that refers to, I believe, is the Hazen and Sawyer contract to conduct a study of economic impact, and my role is to evaluate that study and their results. Q Would that include economic benefit analysis that Hazen and Sawyer might have been contracted to do? A I may have seen some of their earlier work on that, but I'm not ÄÄ I don't believe I have been asked to be responsible for professional critique of benefit analysis. Q Have you ever served as a litigation expert in a case, other than this one? A Yes. Q Can you tell me about them, starting with your most recent? A I don't do a lot of this, so I have to go back over some time, but the most recent was in a Federal District Court of Danville, Virginia, where I was an expert witness in a federal case involving the Immigration Reform Act, in particular the H-2 Program of temporary foreign workers in tobacco industries in Virginia and North Carolina. Q Did your testimony involve economic impact issues? A Yes, it did. Q Could you tell me about that? A The issues had to do with the adverse effect wage rate and that was the primary focus of the litigation and the setting of the adverse effect wage rate as it might affect the number of foreign workers that would be available, and it had to do, therefore, with the cost of production in tobacco and economic viability of those industries vis-...-vis immigration policy. Economic impact, definitely, but economic impact in the context of the South Florida case, not really. Q Okay. Did you testify concerning the effects of that policy or potential effects of the policy on sales for the industry? A That was one part of it. I was a part of a team and I was not the major economist player in that particular effort. Dr. James Holt, consulting labor economist, in Washington, D.C., was the primary economist that I worked with and I worked with him as an agricultural economist, someone familiar with agricultural industry, agricultural economics, things of that nature. Q Who retained you in that case? I don't mean the name of the person, I mean the name of the party or entity. A To be honest, I can't recall the exact name, but it was an organization of tobacco growers in North Carolina and Virginia. Q And what was the position of the tobacco growers in the litigation? Let me ask you this first. Who were the other parties in the litigation? A The other party, I believe, was the U.S. Department of Labor, but it's been about eight years and I cannot recall the details. Q So this was about '85? A Something like that, '84, '85. Q So it was basically a case in which the government and the industry were on opposite sides of the controversy? A Right. Q Okay. Any other cases in which you have given expert testimony? A In a ÄÄ I'm restricting this to actual courtroom situations, right? Q If you would, you can broaden that to include not only a courtroom, but also administrative hearing form, like the one involved in these SWIM proceedings. Are you familiar with the distinction? A Yes, I'm familiar with the distinction. Q Okay. A Most of the work that I have done, as an agriculture economist, has involved legal proceedings that never went that far. They were settled out of court or something happened, you know, you do the work and so on and so forth, and I can talk about a recent one that I'm involved in or was, I don't know whether I'm still involved in it or not, where I'm an expert for the U.S. Department of Justice. Q What would that one be? A That one involved the tax credit policy, under tax law of the sixty cent a gallon tax credit that is available to manufacturers of a product called ETBE, a derivative product which oxygenates a fuel and one of the basic raw materials of that is ethanol. So I was retained by the U.S. Justice Department a couple of years ago to look at the economic impact of that regulation. Q Do you know the name of the attorney at the Justice Department? A Stewart Gibson. Q Do you know the name of the case? A No, not really. I do know that it's an action brought by a group of organizations, including certain individuals, against the Justice Department. Q What kind of organizations? A I may misstate the names, but it's like the Sierra Club and Defenders of the Environment, it goes on and on and I'm not sure of all of them, and there are certain individuals in Minnesota and different places that are the plaintiffs. Q Would it be fair to say that the challengers or plaintiffs in the case are suing the Federal Government, alleging environment grievances? A They're alleging potential environment grievances over the administration of this policy. Q And what is the nature of your proposed expert testimony in the case? A Well, here again, I'm working with a colleague, in this case Professor Schmitz, Professor Andrew Schmitz, Chairman of the Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics, University of California at Berkeley, and he and I are working together evaluating the likely impact of this policy. Q Okay. The likely impact of the tax credit policy? A The tax credit policy. Q That would be the economic impact? A The economic impact, yes. Q Okay. A Or would it have an economic impact? Q Are there any other controversies, in which you had been retained as a potential expert witness, whether or not they went to trial, and you actually gave testimony? A When you have a thirty-three year history. . . Q You can start with the most recent. . . A I don't have. . . Q . . .ten-year period. A We don't write these things in our r‚sum‚s and they don't become part of our pedigree and we don't utilize them for tenure or promotion or anything else, so. . . Q So they fade from memory? A Yes, they fade from memory, but let me throw out a few. Q Okay. A One of them, which was my experience, I did file an affidavit in the Northern California Federal District Court, about 1975, involving the private action under antitrust law, Federal Antitrust Law, dealing with pricing policy and in particular allegations of price fixing against a group of sugar companies in California and Hawaii. I say private action, because the public action ÄÄ it's my understanding that in the public action the defendants in this case, the sugar industries, pleaded nolo contendere to the federal charge and then they were facing the private charges of industry members, namely the buyers, and the vertical structure. The buyers of sugar then filed a trouble damage suit against the sugar companies. Q Do you know who the manufacturers were in the case? A It was a class action suit and there were literally hundreds of plaintiffs. Q What was the class? A The class was the class of users of sugar. They were sugar ÄÄ at that time they were still using ÄÄ this was in the 1970s ÄÄ they were still using sugar in soft drinks, so I think there were some soft drink manufacturers, there were canners, a whole variety of firms, candy manufacturers, other users of sugar, who filed this class action against the. . . Q Had you been retained by the industry defendants? A I was, again, part of a team of economists that were involved in looking at the economic impact and looking at the economics of markets, sugar markets, and I was, I guess, retained ÄÄ I guess you might say, I don't know how to use the word retainer, but I was employed as a consultant by the industry. Q By the defendants? A By the defendants. Q Okay. In the tax credit case for ETBE, I understand you don't recall the name of the case, but do you remember what court it's in? A I believe it's in a Washington, D.C. court, but I can't say for sure. Q Okay. A It hasn't, to my knowledge, gone that far and I'm just doing some background economic work. Q Okay. You're doing well with remembering these faded cases, but you indicated a few moments ago that you would throw a few out. A Yes. Q What are the other ones, besides the private antitrust action? A Okay. Another one had to do with a case in the federal ÄÄ a likely case in the federal court in Boston, and that was also an antitrust action brought about by one private party against another party, and it had to do with cranberries and it had to do with the provision of antitrust law that dealt with sales below cost, and one rival was alleging to another rival that: You're driving me out of business, because you're pricing below cost and I believe that's a violation of the antitrust law and, therefore, I am seeking damages and remedies and so forth. In that particular case what became important was the economics of cranberry marketing or cranberry packing, cranberry harvesting, cranberry production and cranberry juice processing. So I began an analysis of using economic engineering techniques to look at the economics of those activities involved in the production, harvesting, packing or processing of cranberries. Q Who were the parties in the case? A The parties were ÄÄ I think the plaintiff in the case was a firm called Dekus and the defendant was Ocean Spray Growers Cooperative. Q And who did you work for? A I worked for Ocean Spray. Q About when was this case? A This was about ÄÄ I recall it was the time of the last presidential election, so it would have been 1988. Q The California sugar company private antitrust case was about when? A That was '74/'75 era, in that vicinity. Q And the ETBE tax credit case? A That began about two years ago, a year and a half ago. Q Are there any other cases in which you were retained as an expert witness? A There was one in Gainesville, and I believe I had a deposition in this office, and it involved transportation law in trucking and at the time we had strict regulations on trucking rates and that was in a state court and I was retained for a relatively minor amount of time to testify regarding economic impact of the regulations on freight rates and trucking rates and restrictions and so forth. Q About when was that? A Oh, this has got to be fifteen years ago. Q All right. So about '78? A Something like that. Q Okay. A I remember the trucking firm or the moving company and they have since gone out of business. I can't recall. . . Q Who were the parties? A All I remember is the trucking company that I was retained with. Q And who was that? A I don't remember the name of the firm, but the individual was Wayne McKubbin. Q And it was a private trucking company? A Yes, here in Gainesville. Q And they were sued by a competitor or they sued? A They were being sued, I believe. Q And the competitor was another trucking company? A I believe. Q Any other retentions as a potential expert witness? A Yeah, there was one with AmStar Sugar in New York, sugar refiner. Q And that was in? A That was in a potential case that never went to trial. All of these, except for the one on trucking and the one in the Federal District Court in Virginia, never went to trial. Q Okay. A The AmStar case involved, if I recall, a sugar brokerage. Q What court? You said New York. A I believe some New York court, but it never went to trial and. . . Q Who were the parties, besides AmStar Sugar Refiners? A It was another private firm, but I don't recall. Q Was AmStar plaintiff or defendant? A I don't recall, I really don't. Q Do you remember whether they. . . A I believe they were the defendant and the nature of the case had to do with whether or not AmStar could drop a general line broker and go ahead and develop their own brokerage force, and it had to do with the brokerage ÄÄ the brokering of sugar, if I recall, and my role on that was just to look at sugar brokerage as it existed and look at specialization in sugar brokerage versus companies' ability to develop their own services by not retaining brokerages. I can't remember the legal issue that was involved. Q So was your retention, your expertise in this case, did it involve economic impact, per se, or more of an economic feasibility? A It wasn't economic feasibility, it was economic impact, in terms of the economics of the firm, you might say. The economics to the firms that were involved, namely the brokerage firms that were ÄÄ if you look at sugar brokerage over history, from the time of the American Revolution to today, you would find that sugar brokerage, as an industry, was specialized sugar brokers and so forth, that industry has waned and waned in terms of numbers and so on. So some of the last vestiges of some aspects of that specialized business were concerned about their economic viability. Q So this was microeconomics? A It was firm economics. Q Firm economics. A Yes. It affected the brokerage industry, but that wasn't. . . Q But that wasn't the nature of your potential testimony. A No, I was just called on as somebody that had some knowledge of sugar marketing and sugar brokerage. Q Well, these may be faded memories for you, but they're all interesting. Are there any other retentions, as a potential expert witness, that you can recall? A No. Q The two cases that you indicated went to trial, the Gainesville trucking case and the Immigration Reform Act case, did you testify in both of those cases? A Yes. Q Okay. Moving to this case, if we can. When were you retained as an expert in this case? A I think it was sometime in late May or early June of 1992. Q And by whom were you retained? A By the League, through Peeples, Earl & Blank. Q Were there any other services that you were retained to provide, besides potential expert testimony? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. MR. SAXE: Grounds? MR. BURGESS: I don't think he said he was retained to provide potential expert testimony. BY MR. SAXE: Q Let me rephrase the question, Dr. Polopolus. Were you retained to provide potential expert testimony? A I think that was in the background, but I believe the initial focus was to review the work of Hazen and Sawyer, with the idea that there may or may not be litigation involved. Q Was the nature of your retention or employment altered at some point between the initial retention and now to include, more explicitly, providing potential expert testimony? A Well, I believe that it became clear in recent months that my role might involve litigation. Q All right. So initially, it's your testimony, that you were retained to review Hazen and Sawyer work. Can you elaborate on what you were asked to do in connection with that review? A Yeah. My role was to work as part of a team with Dr. James Richardson, in terms of evaluating the work of Hazen and Sawyer, where they were the primary contractor to the District to evaluate economic impact. Q Were there any other individuals or entities that you would be working with or have been working with? A You know, at the time that I was contacted ÄÄ I was contacted about this maybe in March or April of 1992, and there was a period of time there where there was some uncertainty as to my availability and so when all of that got clarified and we discussed seriously my involvement, I had to indicate to Mr. Burgess, whom I was directly in contact with in these discussions, with Peeples, Earl & Blank, that in view of my heavy teaching, research and other commitments at the University of Florida, that I could ÄÄ if I were to become involved that I would have to become involved under a particular arrangement, in terms of services and support. Q So the initial question, regarding your availability, had to do with your other obligations as a professor at the University of Florida. A Right. It basically ÄÄ what that meant, and what I mean by that, is that I would not have the time to crunch a lot of numbers and to conduct the laborious mathematical calculations and computations, personally, that might be involved. Q Okay. A At this point I wasn't aware of any ÄÄ at this early point I was not aware of other economists being directly involved. I was viewing this in terms of what my role would be as an economist assisting the evaluation of the work of others. Q Were you first asked to work on this controversy or issue through IFAS? A No, IFAS never asked me to work on this. Q Did anyone else ask you, before you were contacted by the League? A Yeah, there was a communication that I received from one of the sugar officials in ÄÄ about the time the RFP was issued. I received a communication from Mr. Wedgworth, saying: Leo, why don't you consider applying for this particular grant and conduct the analysis for the District? I did receive that communication. I received from him, not the District, but from Mr. Wedgworth, a copy of the research proposal format. Q Do you know Mr. Wedgworth from his dealings, outside the context of this case? A I had known him by reputation, I had interviewed him in connection with a graduate student research, but I didn't have any long established relationship with Mr. Wedgworth. I knew who he was. Q You testified that he said: Leo, why don't you apply. . . A Yes. People have a hard time with Polopolus and tend to shift quickly to Leo. Q Okay. Were you ever asked to work on this as an IFAS project? A No. Q You said there was an initial question regarding your availability and then I believe you testified that it was resolved. You mentioned an arrangement regarding services and support, but was there anything else that happened that resolved the initial question about your availability? A Well, I don't know how important it is to get into the details of that, but if you would like me to describe what happened between my initial contact from Mr. Burgess and the time I said I would be available to be considered as an economist for the League, I would be happy to go through the details, if you would like those details. Q Well, about when did you agree? Was that May '92? A Yeah, it was late May, early June. It was sometime in late May or sometime in June, but I can't recall the precise date. Q Well, why don't you tell me what transpired between when you were initially contacted by the League and when you were retained? A Well, I was initially contacted by Mr. Burgess and, I believe, a representative of Peterson Consulting came to Gainesville, pretty much like an interview, to see me, meet me, talk to me, so forth, about my employment, and I indicated to Mr. Burgess at the time that I might be available, but I would have to get the approval of my University of Florida, IFAS and the university, before I would commit myself to this effort, and then I had a meeting with my department chairman and discussed this and he said that it didn't look very promising that IFAS would approve my involvement, but he would discuss it, without filling out all the formal paperwork, he would discuss it with my dean, and he meant in particular the Dean for Extension, although I don't carry an extension appointment, all consulting of this nature has to be approved by the Dean for Extension, in addition to the Vice President for IFAS. So I got another call from the department chairman: Leo, we're going to have to talk about this, and I have this lengthy letter from the dean saying that for a variety of reasons your request, as you're proposing it, would not be approved. So I so indicated to Mr. Burgess, that it would not be approved. Q Was that in March of '92? A That was probably in April of '92. Q Okay. A Then I began to think about that and I said: Well, wait a minute, what is the IFAS policy with respect to outside employment? And I started doing a lot of my own research, collecting my own documents, trying to find what separates an approval from a disapproval, and my own research led me to the conclusion that IFAS did not have a coherent policy. At that point I retained two local attorneys and I said: This is my problem and I'm doing this not for Leo Polopolus but for other similarly situated. At that time I was very concerned that one of my colleagues, Dr. Boggess, had similarly been told that he could not consult. So I said: Well, I'm nearing retirement, I don't have to worry about this employment situation, I'll take some risks ÄÄ and I thought for the good of my colleagues. So I retained two attorneys and I presented them with all of the policies, all the documents and so on and so forth. MR. BURGESS: Leo, I want to interject, for the record, that you have a privilege between what you say to attorneys and what they say to you, and you don't need to disclose either voluntarily or in response to questions any of those communications, if you don't desire to. So you need to keep that in mind, vis-...-vis your discussions with attorneys. DR. POLOPOLUS: Thank you. MR. SAXE: I would also interject that you don't need to give me the substance of any communications with counsel, but unless counsel instructs you otherwise, I would expect you ÄÄ you can, to the extent that you remember it, and in response to my question, tell me about conversations that ÄÄ or communications that took place and identify the approximate dates and the nature of the conversation of the subject matter. MR. BURGESS: I disagree with Mr. Saxe. I don't need to instruct him not to answer concerning matters of discussion between he and other counsel that he had employed. I'm not his counsel for that purpose and I don't think I have the right to instruct him not to answer, but I'm just pointing out for his benefit that he has privilege bestowed on him, in the State of Florida, that he need not reveal the substance of communications between himself and counsel, should he decide that he does not want to do so. MR. SAXE: And how will I know when privilege is being invoked, counsel? MR. BURGESS: He can invoke that privilege on discussions he had between himself and counsel. MR. SAXE: Well, if you're instructing Dr. Polopolus that, rather than waiting for you to object on grounds of privilege, that he can tell me a conversation took place and this was the nature, but he's not going to tell me, on the grounds of privilege, is that your position? MR. BURGESS: With respect to matters that he had, he as a client had with his attorneys, in this particular subject matter, yes, I'm advising him that he has that privilege and he can make that determination. MR. SAXE: Are you referring. . . MR. BURGESS: You're blowing this out of proportion, Keith, it's a simple comment on my part to him that he, as a client of an attorney, in this state, has a privilege not to reveal substantive communications between himself and the attorney. MR. SAXE: So your instructions are limited to the retention by Dr. Polopolus of the two local attorneys in any matters that were communicated between them? MR. BURGESS: Yes. MR. SAXE: Thank you. BY MR. SAXE: Q You can go ahead, Dr. Polopolus. A Okay. Q You said you were nearing retirement and you had decided. . . A I had decided that I would consult these attorneys, and meanwhile I wrote a letter to the President of the University of Florida and in that letter I basically, again, asked for the policy and asked for the equity at a time when it appeared that professors in some colleges were being encouraged to consult and other colleges they were given so many days a week, and that kind of stuff, and at a time when our former President was on the Board of ÄÄ you know, at the time on boards of Johnson & Johnson, and at a time when the Chairman of the Board of Regents, without even approval by the Board of Regents, the Chancellor of the Board of Regents, not the head, but the Chancellor, took on a directorship with Florida Power, so on and so on, all of this stuff going on and on. So I said: Wait a minute, what's going on here? So I wrote a letter to the President and so on and so forth. Well, based on advice from my counsel on that issue, I then decided that I would take certain risks, employment risks, and say that I would be available. Where it stands right now? The University has asked me to resubmit that application and I have so resubmitted that application and it's in process. All I have asked the university to do is if they're going to fire me over this particular issue that they give me the opportunity to resign first. That's all I've ever asked. Q Okay. I don't want you to give me any of the details of your communications with your attorneys in this matter, but could you tell me who the two attorneys are that you referred to? A Yes. Q What are their names? A Jonathan Wershow and Pamela Schneider. Q Are they here in Gainesville? A Yes. Q You testified that you're nearing retirement. Can you elaborate on that for me? A Yes. I'm fifty-nine and a half years old and I have had thirty-three years of service and I intend to retire from the University of Florida, but not to retire as a professional consultant economist, when I become sixty-two years of age. Q So that would be three years from now? A Two and a half. Q Okay. I want to go into a chronology of your work in preparing for this case, but before we move off the topic of your retention I have a couple of things I want to get some elaboration from you on. When you said that you needed an arrangement or an arrangement was necessary regarding your service and support, because you didn't have time to crunch numbers or do calculations, what did you mean? Can you elaborate on that? A Just that. That in view of my responsibilities at the University of Florida, and the various hats and roles that I play, and the likelihood of a large amount of data aggregations and data calculations and so forth, that I would, if involved, I would prefer or request that I have assistance or support in carrying out those calculations and the preparations of tables and adding and subtracting and dividing and so forth. Q What assistance or support is being provided or will be provided? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. MR. SAXE: Compound? MR. BURGESS: Yes, and he testified with respect to what was provided. BY MR. SAXE: Q I'm sorry, Dr. Polopolus, you said you requested assistance and support? A Yes. Q Did you get the response? A Yes, I did. Q What was the response? A The response was that that support would be provided. Q And what support specifically was to be provided? A That support was to be provided with the assistance of Peterson Consulting. Q Exclusive of what Peterson was going to do in supporting you, what did you agree to do specifically? A At what stage? Q At that point in time when this initial request was made. A I agreed to evaluate the work of Hazen and Sawyer and to become generally familiar with the issues that ÄÄ economic issues that were extant at that time, talking about mid-June 1992. Q Did you prepare or was there prepared for you a statement of work that described what you would do? A There was a contract that I signed with Peeples, Earl & Blank. Q Did it contain a description of the tasks that you would perform? A I don't recall the terminology of that contract, but it provided a general outline. Q Dr. Polopolus. . . MR. SAXE: Rick, do you know whether a copy of that contract has been. . . MR. BURGESS: It will be on our privileged list. MR. SAXE: Okay. MR. BURGESS: I think, except to the extent that if it does contain a scope of work, and I don't think it does, I think it's discoverable and I will provide it. MR. SAXE: Okay. BY MR. SAXE: Q In the next three months, excluding June of '92, what was the division of labor between you and the Peterson Consulting group and Dr. Richardson in any work that you did analyzing Hazen and Sawyer's analysis? A Well, in taking that time sequence from mid-June, the very first thing that was happening was that Hazen and Sawyer was beginning to issue reports of certain phases of their work, sort of like preliminary papers on -- I think they called them Task Force Reports, and my first involvement was to review those reports and I recall -- I think my first report was around June the 29th, 1992, where I reviewed Hazen and Sawyer's Task Force Reports 1, 2, 3, not 4, but 5, something like that, and then other task force numbers came later on. So from mid-June to mid-July most of my work was general familiarization of the issues and the work of others and including engineers and reports and economic reports, so on and so forth. But July 15 was a very significant date, because that was the date that the preliminary report of Hazen and Sawyer became publicly available. Q Before the July 15 date, what did you or -- you were just doing general reading and review of the task reports that were issued by Hazen and Sawyer? A Right. Q How did you acquire those task reports? A They were sent to me by Peeples, Earl & Blank, I believe. Q And you did not do any other work between June and before July 15, besides reading those task reports? A And commenting on them and -- I can't recall the exact date. . . See, in the June period, June '92 period, I was not aware of Dr. Richardson's involvement, but I was involved in and part of the work was, if I recall, and I do recall, Hazen and Sawyer's initial reports discussing the FLIPSIM methodology as the best methodology and characterizing a review of methodology, I think an original scope of work, and so on and so forth, and I began to become more inquisitive as to that methodology and began to review that methodology, independent of any work of Dr. Richardson in this particular application. At some point, and I discussed this with Mr. Burgess: Hey, there's an awful lot of number crunching that was going to be involved here and it would be nice if we had some analytical capability that goes beyond my resources and my time ÄÄ and somewhere along this marriage came along and somewhere in early July I began to ÄÄ I was advised that Mr. Richardson was a part of the team and at that point, sometime in early July, I began to work directly with Dr. Richardson, agriculturist-economist at Texas A&M University, on evaluating the economic impact issues. (Thereupon, a short recess was had; whereupon, the following proceedings were held:) BY MR. SAXE: Q Dr. Polopolus, before we get back to the chronology that you were giving me, just a couple of other matters on your retention as a potential expert witness in the case. You indicated that you had a contract sometime around June of '92, when you were retained, and we don't know whether there's a scope of work, but counsel will take a look at it and see if there is. Has there been an evolution of your retention that is formalized in contract amendments or revisions in a scope of work or any other form? A Not in terms of written documents, but there has been an evolution in terms of communications from Mr. Burgess, in terms of the nature of my work. Q Could you describe that to me, please, with respect to your work as a potential expert witness in the case? A Well, I think early on it wasn't clear that I would be involved as a potential witness. I think in the early phases, from June 22nd to maybe through August of '92, it was more or less the concentration on evaluation of Hazen and Sawyer's work, but in the fall of '92 it became more clear that I may be involved in testifying in some litigation. Q Okay. A I can't recall the precise date, but. . . Q Can you tell me more about how that expressed itself? A Yes, through telephone communications with counsel, Mr. Burgess. Q Thank you. One other question on your retention in the case. I hate to pry, but it's a matter appropriate for discovery. Can you tell me about your financial arrangement for your work on the case for the League? A I think the contract, initial contract, established the financial compensation that I would receive for the work that I performed. Q And what is that compensation? A If I recall, it's slightly less than a hundred dollars an hour. Q That is for your work both testifying and other? A There's no distinction, right. Q Was there any quantification of how many hours of work you would be providing on the case? A I believe the original contract had a limit. Q Do you recall. . . A Upper limit. Q Do you recall? A I vaguely recall a number of twenty-five thousand as an upper limit. Q Has that been modified by any contract amendments or otherwise? A No. Q Can you tell me how many hours of work you have done thus far on the case? A The time and effort depends on the nature of Hazen and Sawyer, so there was a lot of time and effort in July and August and very little since then. So the average amount ÄÄ I don't know if you would average that and say: Well, there are periods of inactivity and periods of activity. I would say an approximate average would be about one day a week. Q Okay. Going back to your chronology of the work that you have been doing. When you said you weren't aware initially of Dr. Richardson's involvement in June and then sometime in early July you became aware of his involvement. How did you become aware of Dr. Richardson's involvement, can you elaborate on that? A Well, again, through a telephone communication from Mr. Burgess. Q And what did you understand Dr. Richardson's role was going to be? A Well, at that time the relative responsibilities became intimately clear and one doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Dr. Richardson, since Hazen and Sawyer we assumed was using FLIPSIM and since Dr. Richardson is the author and originator or FLIPSIM and I'm not, that Dr. Richardson would have the responsibility of the FLIPSIM analysis, which is the farm level, agricultural level production analysis, and my responsibility would then be concentrated in the aggregative impact analysis. So at that point it became a division of labor, a division of responsibility between Dr. Richardson on one hand, as a member of the team, and myself on the other as dealing with the multiplier analysis and the aggregative economic impact analysis. Q Can you define or explain aggregative impact analysis for me, what you mean by that? A Well, taking the results of FLIPSIM, which were cast in terms of representative model farms, casting that impact in terms of the EAA as a region, and any related impact to the broader geographic region around the EAA and any broader impact around the state of Florida economy. Q When you say FLIPSIM result impacts concerning representative model farms, I'm not sure ÄÄ let me see if my statement is fair or not and maybe we can get a clearer understanding that way. Were the FLIPSIM results expected to be direct farm level impacts and the aggregated impact analysis would be secondary impacts, using those? A No. Q Okay. A No, they would be both direct impacts. We're still talking about the primary industry, namely ÄÄ we're still talking about, you know, the primary industry being agriculture. The question is whether you have it at the firm level or the industry level of the geographic area levels. Dr. Richardson's analysis did not do the aggregation for the industry of producers. Q What does the FLIPSIM. . . When you say Dr. Richardson's analysis, that would be the FLIPSIM analysis, or is there more to it than that? A Yes. The FLIPSIM analysis is a comprehensive tool that's used to analyze economic impact and we can discuss that and describe that, you know, to the extent that you care to discuss that aspect of it. I had to have a very good understanding of what that model was in order to better understand what we were receiving from him, in order to do our aggregated analysis. Q It may facilitate this testimony if we do it a little bit later when we're referring to documents, but for right now, in terms of the division of labor, I'm really trying to just get a handle on the division of labor. So Dr. Richardson was going to use FLIPSIM to do firm level impacts, you were doing the aggregation to the industry, but still all direct impact. A Yes, that's correct. Q Okay. A And then from that I was responsible for doing the indirect. So, in other words, the question is: How many acres in the aggregate would be lost to production as a result of BMP, a tax assessment, the STAs, you know, what's the aggregate acreage, aggregate this or that. We started with ÄÄ let's say the aggregate acreage, what would be the impact of alternative policies? FLIPSIM would give, sort of at the firm level, and then my responsibility was to aggregate that for the industry and then given those aggregations apply the Leontief multiplier analysis to determine the direct and indirect. Q Is there any other input/output analysis methodology besides the Leontief multiplier? A Yeah, I mean, you can use the word input-output to refer to efficiency ratios, you know, but in the context of what we're doing. . . Q Economic impact analysis. A I'm not familiar with any technique that is used for economic impact analysis as we're utilizing or conceiving it. Q Now, were you to do, at that point in time, before the July 15th draft, Hazen and Sawyer draft, when you became aware of Dr. Richardson's involvement and the division of labor became clear, were you to do the number crunching and calculations for the industry-wide aggregation and for the secondary impact clarification from Dr. Richardson's analysis or was somebody else to do that work? A I don't understand the question. Q Let me streamline it a little bit. You testified that you were going to do the industry aggregation from Dr. Richardson's firm level results and then provide the input-output analysis to check secondary impacts. Were you going to do that all by yourself? A No, as I said earlier, in any context I needed assistance with the number crunching. Q And that was the Peterson assistance? A That's where the Peterson involvement came in to assist me in carrying out those data manipulations and data calculations. Q Who is the Peterson team or group that would be providing this? A Peterson Consulting is a well-known internationally recommended economic consulting firm that, to my understanding, was retained by Peeples, Earl & Blank. Q Do you understand that Peterson Consulting or any employee of Peterson Consulting has been designated as a potential expert witness in the case? A I don't know anything as to whether they are or are not. Q Were there any particular individuals at the Peterson Consulting firm that are part of the team assisting you? A There were a number of people. MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. BY MR. SAXE: Q Can you give me the names of the individuals comprising the group at Peterson Consulting providing you support or assistance? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. MR. SAXE: Grounds? MR. BURGESS: He testified only that they provided assistance to him with what he did back in July and August, not that it's ongoing. MR. SAXE: Let me rephrase the question. BY MR. SAXE: Q Who were the people at Peterson Consulting who you understood were going to be providing this assistance back in June and July of '92? A People at Peterson Consulting that I worked with, who assisted me in the calculations, I believe beginning in July, were a large number, but I believe it included Stan Rolen, Andy Bernstein, and other members of their staff. Q Do you know who those members were? A I did at the time, but I ÄÄ I believe there was a Shelly, I can't remember the last names, Shelly Lofton, I think, and a Hector somebody, and a Marsha somebody. Excuse me, but it's been since last July since I ÄÄ or August, maybe early August, since I worked with some of them. Q Did your contact with Peterson Consulting terminate in July? A Well, there hasn't been ÄÄ I wouldn't say termination, but there wasn't very much activity at all after mid-August. In fact, I don't ÄÄ I don't know that I can say no activity, but I don't know that ÄÄ there wasn't any substantial amount of activity between me and Peterson until the early December period when Dr. Richardson and I met with the economists for the District and the economists for Hazen and Sawyer in Hollywood, Florida, on December 16th, 1992. Q So between August and December you had no. . . A Basically. . . Q . . .no interaction with Peterson Consulting? A Right. Q Did they continue to do work to support and assist you during that period in your work as a potential expert witness in this case? A I wasn't doing very much in that period, so I don't recall. Q Do I understand your testimony correctly that in July you were assisted by Stan Rolen, Andy Bernstein and some other people at Peterson Consulting, maybe a Shelly Lofton, Hector somebody, somebody named Marsha? A Yes. Q And that that assistance and support continued through August, but then there was nothing further until December? A That's my recollection. Q Okay. What assistance did Peterson Consulting provide you in July? A Okay. Dr. Richardson and I worked out a basic plan of research, in terms of evaluation of the Hazen and Sawyer reports. The division of labor was established, as I have indicated. Then we bring it over to my area of work, then I laid out the parameters of how we were going to analyze economic impact and what multipliers were going to be used, what definitions of impact we were going to include, that is, what we were going to talk about, the baseline, and then once we start with the baseline what we were going to talk about: Assessment rate at ten dollars an acre? Assessment rate at twenty-five dollars an acre? Fifty dollars an acre? A hundred dollars an acre? All these had a bearing on the construction of our analysis. So given those decisions that Dr. Richardson and I worked out, and then given the results of the firm level analysis of FLIPSIM, then Peterson assisted in the ÄÄ what I call the number crunching, assisted in giving the coefficients for multipliers and giving the general data base that is given in terms of the number of total acres, became an important variable: The total number of acres in sugar, the total acres in sod, the total acres in vegetables, given all that, then Peterson assisted in actually saying: Well, if we looked at this then what would be the jobs lost? What would be the acreage lost? What would be the revenue lost? What would be the earnings lost? As we had negative impact from the policies ÄÄ alternative policies of the District. Q Going back a little bit. Before the July 15, 1992 Hazen and Sawyer draft came out, you indicated that you read the task reports and commented. Did you prepare documents reflecting your comments or were these notations that you made on the task reports that you received, or both? A If I recall, I prepared like a memorandum and I believe I sent ÄÄ each of those memorandum were sent to Mr. Burgess and I believe we provided copies of those, of my comments of those early Task Force Reports, to you and members of your counsel. Q Were those the only written comments that you made in your review of the task reports? A Yes. Q Before. . . A That's correct. Q Before the July 15th draft? A Yes. Q Now, the work that you described that was contemplated in July, Dr. Richardson doing FLIPSIM farm level analysis, you doing industry aggregation and Leontief input/output analysis and Peterson assisting you in the number crunching for those purposes, was that work that was being done based on the early task reports that you had reviewed and commented on? A In part. Q What else did that work relate to? Any other Hazen and Sawyer work product? A Well, their work product of their preliminary report of July 15th and the interaction that I had with Dr. Richardson regarding the critique that we made jointly of the Hazen and Sawyer study when the draft report was available. So it was sort of a building process of involvement and interaction on our part, which spread to the later public statements that we made before the Funding Council on August the 7th and attempted to make before the Governing Board on August 13th. Q Between the July '92 memorandum on counsel commenting on the early task reports and the August public presentations, did you or anyone on behalf of the League prepare additional reports or other documents that commented on the Hazen and Sawyer analysis or expressed economic impact? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. MR. SAXE: Let me break it down. BY MR. SAXE: Q Take me through, chronologically. I've got the memorandum around July to counsel concerning the early task report. Now, as I understand your testimony, at this time work was ongoing. A Yes. Q By you and Dr. Richardson and by Peterson Consulting, and the Hazen and Sawyer draft came out on July 15th. A Yes. Q What was the next report or document prepared either by you or by others on behalf of the League? A I don't think there was a document, but I believe that the report was issued at the time, and I don't think that Dr. Richardson was in attendance, but I believe that I made a press conference or had an initial reaction to the report in West Palm Beach at the time of the report. In other words, we received the report, I read the report, spent all night reviewing it and I think the next day I presented an initial reaction to the report. Q Okay. A I can't recall the date, whether it was July 16th or 17th, but it wasn't a written document, just an off-the- cuff, you know: This is my immediate reaction to the report. Q And that was to the press? A That was to the public and the press and I don't remember all who was in attendance. Q Where did that take place? A That took place in West Palm Beach. Q At the Water Management District? A No. It took place, I believe, in a meeting room of a hotel, which I can't remember the name of. Q And was that a press conference? A It was more like a press conference. Q You said it was to the public as well as to members of the press. A Yeah. Q Do you recall who was there? A I know there were members of industry there and there were members of the press there. I cannot recall who else was there in attendance, to be honest. Q Did you call the meeting or did you organize this press conference? A No, I think the League called the meeting. Q And. . . A And asked me to make the presentation at that meeting. I think that was my first public statement with regard to our ÄÄ Dr. Richardson's and our collective evaluation of the preliminary report. Q All right. When were you asked to attend this conference or meeting and make these statements? Was it after the Hazen and Sawyer report came out on July 15th? A No, it was in anticipation that the report would be out on the 15th, so maybe I got a call three days before, I can't recall the exact date, but I received a call: We're going to have this report, it's going to be available, you've read the Task Force Reports; the assumption was that the Task Force Reports would be fairly consistent with the preliminary draft report, which they turned out to be, and they would be fairly consistent, but I don't have a text of that presentation and I don't ÄÄ to be honest, someone said they did a video of it, but I don't recall exactly the structure of that presentation. Q Who might have done a video of it? A I'm not sure. Q Do you remember the person who said. . . A I think there were TV people there, I don't know whether the League had someone there to video it or not. I don't recall. I know there were a lot of cameras going off at the time. Q It was a photo op? A Something like that. Q Do you know the purpose for the request of the League for you to make these statements? A It was to give an initial reaction to the report. Q That's all that was expressed to you? A Yeah. Q Now, if more was expressed to you, but you feel it's attorney/client communication. . . A No. Q You can tell me that, but. . . A No, there was nothing like that. Q Okay. At the time of this press conference, had you completed the analysis that you would subsequently present to the Funding Council in August? A No. Q How far along was it? A It was in a ÄÄ you know, this is always in a state of flux and a state of change, you know, as new knowledge becomes available. Some of the basic parameters were there. Namely, there was a ÄÄ the Hazen and Sawyer report estimated very little job loss and that was of great concern to us, because as we looked at it and looked at the assumptions that Hazen and Sawyer used and the way we viewed those same assumptions, we had a rather striking different interpretation at the time about what that job loss would be and, if I recall, that was one of the focus points of that press conference, is that the District's report is saying: Hey, there's no problem. I think the press was reporting, the Miami Herald and the Palm Beach Post, and other media, that there's no problem, and I think what we're saying is: Hey, there may be a problem. So we highlighted the job loss differential. Q To the best of your recollection, specifically what was your statement at that conference? A That some of it was that you have a report from Hazen and Sawyer, which says minimal impact and our cursory and preliminary analysis is saying that there can be a rather large impact. Then the next two weeks we began to develop our basis for arguing that we believed there was or could be a large economic impact. Q Did you quantify the possible increase in the impacts over what Hazen and Sawyer had indicated during your statement at the conference? A I cannot recall the specific numbers, if any, that were presented at that conference. Q Actually I'm asking whether you recall that specific numbers were presented, as opposed to quantitative descriptions of the impacts as being much larger or other relative kinds of descriptions. Were there any numbers presented? A I really don't recall. Q Okay. And then you just indicated a few minutes ago that in the next several weeks you then commenced to do what? To quantify the differences? A Yes. Q Okay. A In the next several weeks we began to look at the assumptions of Hazen and Sawyer, the methodology of Hazen and Sawyer, recast some of those assumptions and re-estimate ÄÄ assuming that Hazen and Sawyer had already utilized FLIPSIM or some method like FLIPSIM, and starting with the basic same parameters, in terms of total acreage and what the EAA constituted and the acreages that were in cane, vegetables and sod, and so on, but taking what we regarded were flawed assumptions and then taking and utilizing the FLIPSIM methodology in a refined state, then we came out with a series of ÄÄ at that time ÄÄ numerical numbers and so forth, and that constituted the August 7th report to the Funding Council. Q Okay. At any time, up to that point, had Hazen and Sawyer asked you, or any member of Hazen and Sawyer, Ms. Johns or somebody else, for any assistance in their undertaking? Not just during the period of time of your retention in this case, but goes back earlier than June '92. A Oh, yeah, I had Chris Melene, staff member of Hazen and Sawyer, in my office for several days and I gave him filing cabinets of data from several reports. Now, I wasn't in as much contact with Dr. Johns as I was with one of her economists, but early on I believe when ÄÄ I'm talking now about before I was involved in this with Peeples, Earl & Blank and with the League, but whenever Grace called or when Mr. Melene asked I provided them copies of ÄÄ I think, in fact, I even loaned Mr. Melene my book on sugar and he took it and read it and sent it back, and then he needed other information and, you know, I said whatever I have I would be happy to provide you out of my library on sugar marketing, sugar economics, things of that nature. So I had a relationship with Mr. Melene in, you know, I'm talking about March and I believe it was February, March, before I ever even encountered Rick Burgess. But after I got involved and was retained by the League I don't recall that I had requests from Hazen and Sawyer for additional data or information to me personally. Q Do you recall whether you were ever requested to either review some of Hazen and Sawyer's work or to discuss that work with Hazen and Sawyer that you declined to provide? A I don't recall any requests, nor do I ÄÄ I don't recall any requests. Q So. . . A So I had no opportunity to accept or decline. Q Okay. Up to the point in time where we're adding your chronology now, which would be the end of July, had you contacted or attempted to contact Hazen and Sawyer to discuss their flawed results or their methodology or errors in assumptions in the work they had done so far? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. BY MR. SAXE: Q Okay. Had you attempted to contact Hazen and Sawyer to give any input on the model that they had done at that point? A I indirectly ÄÄ I provided comments on Task Force Reports to Mr. Burgess and Peeples, Earl & Blank, the extent to which that was then translated to Hazen and Sawyer I'm not aware. Q Okay. In the division of labor between you and the Peterson Consulting group, you said that you laid out parameters for the economic impact analysis and collected multipliers to find relevant economic impacts, and they assisted in number crunching. A Yes. Q Did they make any decisions concerning methodology? A Not the basic methodology, no. Q Did they make any decisions concerning the input data to be used? MR. BURGESS: Objection, because I don't know what you're meaning by input data. BY MR. SAXE: Q Did they make any decisions about the numbers to crunch, that is, Peterson? A Not really, no. Q So those decisions, was that part of your. . . A And Dr. Richardson's, right. Q So then would it be fair to say that they basically carried out calculations at your directions and under your guidance? A That's it. Q After the July conference or gathering, we'll call it a press conference. A Okay. Q After the July press conference, what was the next either written report that was produced on behalf of the League concerning this work or oral presentation of analysis for the League? A The next major move or step was the August 7th presentation by me to the Funding Council. I think it's fair to say, in this context, that when Hazen and Sawyer presented their primary report they had also established, to my recollection, a schedule of public events, that they would take the result of their work and make it publicly available to the Funding Council, to various other groups at the District, and to the growers ÄÄ I'm not exactly sure what their scheduling entailed, but they had an organized program of making known to the public the results of their work and in that context we felt it appropriate that our side of that story be told, and so the first major presentation to critique the Hazen and Sawyer analysis was a presentation I made to the Funding Council in West Palm Beach on August 7th, 1992. Q Did you provide a written report or other written document at that point? A There was a written report, which was in the form of an outline of the remarks. Q Okay. Do you recall, generally speaking, what the nature of the presentation was? A Yes. Q Can you describe it for me? A Sure. It was a critique of the Hazen and Sawyer study on economic impact and it began with an overview of the structure of the agricultural economy of the EAA. It included estimates ÄÄ before we get to economic impact ÄÄ it included our estimates, what we thought the employment base was in agribusiness and in non-agribusiness. Q What was the last one? A In agribusiness as well as nonagribusiness. Q Okay. A And nonagricultural components of the EAA and it included a discussion of the assumptions that we thought were not dealt with adequately in Hazen and Sawyer and our interpretation of what might be a better assumption, and it included the quantitative estimate of job loss, acreage loss, sales loss, under a variety of scenarios, and it compared ÄÄ it summarized the Hazen and Sawyer result, and it compared and contrasted our analysis of that, and there was a very sharp contrast in the results. Q What was the next either oral presentation or written report that was produced, not necessarily presented? A The next one that was produced was the. . . You're talking about my presentation, not the presentation of Dr. Richardson, but my presentation. Q I'm actually talking about ÄÄ let me clarify it. Any that you're aware of on behalf of the League. Certainly any that you produced or presented or any that were produced or presented by people you were working with or people working for the League. A The next focus point for me was August 13th, 1992. Q And that was the. . . A That was the presentation that I was to make to the Governing Board of the District, and I need to give a little background to what turned out to be some confusion about all of this. August the 12th and August the 13th were two of the days that the District set aside for discussion of the EAA project. August the 12th turned out to be a day when I was making presentations in Baltimore, Maryland and I could not be present. I had a prior conflict of many months longstanding and I so informed the District and I informed counsel that I could not make a presentation on the 12th, because I would be in Baltimore, Maryland, at the Agricultural Economics Association meetings. Okay. I believe that on the 12th the report that I had prepared was summarily presented by Stan Rolen of Peterson Consulting, but I had not made a presentation and we had requested that I be given the opportunity to make a presentation on the 13th, before the District Board. Q What did Stan Rolen present ÄÄ was this the written outline of your earlier Funding Council presentation? A I'm not exactly sure what he presented. I'm sure the testimony that he gave before the District Board would reflect what he said. I've never read a text of it and I'm not sure what he presented, but I assume that what he presented were the results of our report, the Richardson/Polopolus report that we were to summarize on the 13th. So on the 13th of August, 1992, Dr. Richardson and I were prepared to appear before the Board and make our summary presentation of our critique of Hazen and Sawyer's analysis, but we were not permitted to make that presentation. So the report was completed and I think the report was offered, but the report itself was not presented. Q When you say a report, do you mean a written document? A There was a written document. Q Okay. A Again, it was an outline form document that presented our latest thinking about the Hazen and Sawyer report and our latest thinking about what is the likely economic impact of imposing the STAs on thirty-five thousand acre reduction, of imposing BMPs and imposing alternative tax assessments. Q Did you say overheads? A I think some of them were ÄÄ some of that report was made into overheads. Q Okay. A So it was not a journal type paper, it was a paper that was prepared and intended to be presented in a public. . . Q Presentation materials. A Right. Q Documentary presentation materials. A Yes. Q Now, these had not been in existence a few days earlier at the Funding Council presentation? A Not that same form. There were changes that were made between the August 7th report and the August 13th report. Q Now, when you say the August 7th report, would that be the written outline of remarks that you referred to earlier? A Yes. Q Okay. That was also a documentary presentation material or packet? A Yes. Q And then there were changes made to it for the August 13th presentation? A Yes. Q Do you recall what changes were made? A No. I really can't recall the changes that were made specifically. I would have to look at the two documents and compare them. Q Do you remember why the changes were made? A I think it was more of presentation, not so much of substance. Q Had there been overheads also for the August 7th Funding Council presentation? A Yes. Q But the overheads for the August 13th presentation would be a little different? A Some of them were different. Q Some of them were different? A Yes. Q When you say that ÄÄ I'm paraphrasing the report ÄÄ the report was offered, but wasn't accepted, I think that was the gist of what you were saying. A Offered but not presented. Q What did you mean by that? A Well, it was a long day. When, Grace Johns, with Hazen and Sawyer, was permitted to present her report, we thought that we would have the opportunity of following her and presenting a rebuttal, but it turned out that several dozens of people testified and made various comments, the day kept wearing on and on and on, and at approximately six p.m. that evening, when members of the Governing Board had planes to catch and there was a question of quorum and people were yawning and very tired, and then they called Dr. Polopolus and Dr. Richardson to the podium to present their report, and we began our report and then the Chair says: Sorry, I don't think we have a quorum, I don't think we have many people that are going to stay and hear this, but I know the gist of what you might be saying and I know that there's likely to be a big difference between you and Hazen and Sawyer, can you ÄÄ and there was sort of a stop in the proceedings ÄÄ and then the Chair said: Can you meet at some other time, can you ÄÄ meaning Dr. Richardson and Dr. Polopolus ÄÄ meet with Hazen and Sawyer, have a meeting of you two economists and discuss your differences and then come back and give us a report? So that's how it ended. Q Had Dr. Richardson made any presentation? A I'm not sure whether he did or not up to that point. I don't know. Q So you were standing at the podium when this took place. A Oh, on the 13th both of us were standing together, we were both at the podium together, at six p.m. on the 13th. Q And you were asked to submit something in writing? A My recollection is that the District staff, and with Hazen and Sawyer and with the League staff conferring at that point, saying: How are we going to handle this? Well, we obviously have a big difference of opinion about economic impact but why not let the economists get together, meet and discuss the methodologies, the procedures, so forth, and then why don't we give the parties the opportunity to come back after that meeting and report to us what happened. Q Okay. What happened next? A Not much. Q Let me ask a question before we leave this dark day of August 13th. What did Hazen and Sawyer present at that Governing Board meeting? A My recollection is that Dr. Johns made a presentation of her findings. Q Did she present the July 15th draft reports? A She presented her. . . I should have mentioned earlier that I believe on July the 31st, Hazen and Sawyer issued their final report and so now she's, on August 7th and August 13th, Dr. Johns would be presenting the results, not of her preliminary report, because she had made some changes, didn't change the final conclusions, but obviously made some changes, and so the August 7th and August 13th presentations were based on her July 31, 1992 final report. Q Had those changes between the July 15th draft and the July 31 final report been considered by the people working for the League and preparing the presentation that was presented to the Funding Council on August 7th? A Excuse me? Q Okay. Had the presentation that was made to the Funding Council, on August 7th, included the changed material on the July 31st Hazen and Sawyer final report? A The presentation by whom? By Hazen and Sawyer or by us? Q By the League. A We certainly took into account the changes of Hazen and Sawyer, between their preliminary report and their final report. Q So the presentation that was made on August the 7th pertained to the final report as well? A It pertained to the final report, yes. Q And also that's true concerning the aborted presentation on August 13th? A That's correct. Q Okay. What was the next thing that was done by you or Peterson and/or Richardson in the case? A Well, not much happened. The next stage was that we were trying to get a meeting of economists that were the primary economists involved, that is, the economists for Hazen and Sawyer and the economists for the League, and up to that point we were the only economists who were coming forward with a lot of analyses and a lot of data and a lot of interpretations and so on and so forth. So we felt that we were the primary group of economists involved and interested in demonstrating that interest through public presentations and so on. So we were trying to get this meeting, this meeting that we thought the Board had requested, and the next thing we learned was that the District was calling a meeting of all the economists, by all economists meaning the economists with the Justice Department, economists at various universities, economists with the Department of Agriculture, including, and so on and so forth. So that's not what Dr. Richardson and I thought was the meaning of the District Governing Board on August 13th. We just wanted to have a face-to-face opportunity to meet with Chris Melene and Dr. Johns and discuss methodology as economist-to-economist, you know: Why do you do it this way? Could you have done it that way? What was the basis for this number? What was the basis for that assumption? So on and so forth, you know, that type of thing. It took from August 13th to December 16th, 1992 to actually realize this meeting. I did make a public presentation to the Funding Council on November 19th, at which time I again said it would be nice if the District permitted a meeting between the Hazen and Sawyer economists and the League economists to hatch out our differences over methodology. It would be nice. At that time we said it also would be nice if the District would permit Hazen and Sawyer, if they were to do another analysis, which we didn't know if they would or wouldn't, if they were to do another analysis, if they would extend the analysis to a twenty-year period. But we had the meeting on December 16th and it was a good one and very productive one from both sides, I think. Q All right. Going back to the efforts to arrange a meeting between you and somebody on behalf of the League, I take it, and Hazen and Sawyer; is that correct? A Yes. Q Were you the person who was attempting to make these arrangements? A No. Mr. Burgess was, on behalf of the League, and on behalf of ÄÄ representing the economists for the League, was seeking to resolve this problem. QSo when you say: We just wanted to discuss methodologies and so forth, you mean the economists for the League or do you mean counsel and the economists for the League? A I think basically it was Dr. Richardson and I who felt an obligation to follow up on the Governing Board's recommendation that the economists get together and talk about it, the primary economists. Q Okay. What was the ÄÄ I take it from your testimony that there was ÄÄ that you objected or that the League objected to having other economists present at that meeting? A Yeah, there was concern about that. Q Okay. Can you explain those concerns for me? A Well, I can speak for myself, you know, I can't speak for the League on this point or anybody else's. But what we didn't want to happen is we didn't want to have and characterize a meeting that had political overtones to it, that had an adversarial overtone to it. We wanted it to be a colleagial meeting of the economists, where we sat next to each other without any representatives of industry, without any representatives of the District or without any pressures, political and otherwise, we just wanted a meeting of the primary economists. We were characterized in the media as battling over and having great differences and so forth, and we wanted to say: Okay, let's get into a closed room, without people with vested interests, and just talk about economics and talk about methodology. So that's why we didn't want ÄÄ we didn't want a large number of people and then take a vote: Well, was this methodology good? Nine in favor of two against ÄÄ something like that. We didn't want that kind of an atmosphere to pervade the discussion. Q All right. You indicated, as a preface to your comment, that you were only going to speak for yourself and then you said "we". Can you. . . A Well, I think Dr. Richardson and I felt similarly about this. Q What did you understand the League's objection was to the presence of other economists at this meeting? A I really don't know. Mr. Burgess could answer that. Q Did you have any understanding of the League's objections? A I believe they were concerned, as we were, about making a kangaroo court out of this issue. Q You described your rationale in terms of your wanting to have a colleagial meeting, not an adversarial meeting, without industry representatives present. A Yes. Q Did you not consider yourself to be an industry representative? A In that context I considered myself an economist. Q Did you consider the economists that had been retained by other parties in the case, to be representatives of the parties as opposed to economists? A I didn't think about it that way. Q Well, what was your thinking about the presence of economists, that had been retained by other parties would make the meeting adversarial in a way that your presence, as an economist retained by a party in the case, would not? A It's a good question, but I think I expressed my feeling about that. Q And that is that you hadn't really thought about it? A Not in that context, and I should state very clearly that I am not opposed, and I believe it's a very good idea, for economists of all persuasions and of all stripes and from all interest groups, be given the opportunity to discuss methodology, but we were talking about a very constrained issue that resulted from a specific event that took place on August the 13th, and I'm talking about that. I'm not talking about meetings of economists in general, I'm talking about responding to the Governing Board's concern that the two economists get together and resolve and discuss and so forth. Q You were aware, I'm sure, at that time that the League who had retained you also sued the Water Management District over the SWIM Plan; is that correct? A I became aware of that, yes. Q Were you aware of that at the time that you were attempting to arrange the meeting with Hazen and Sawyer? A No. Q At that time you were not aware of that? A No. Q Were you aware that ÄÄ did you have any understanding about a challenge to the SWIM Plan by the League? MR. BURGESS: Object to the form. BY MR. SAXE: Q Do you know when the League filed a petition challenging the SWIM Plan? A No, I don't know the date. To be honest, I don't remember the date. Q Moving on to a parallel track, between the August 13th Governing Board presentation and the November 19th Funding Council presentation. A Yes. Q What work was being done by you and Dr. Richardson and Peterson Consulting, if any, on analyzing the Hazen and Sawyer impact analysis or economic impacts on the SWIM Plan, generally? A Very little. I wasn't in contact with Peterson Consulting at that point. In fact, the overheads that I presented on November 19th to the Funding Council were not prepared ÄÄ Peterson Consulting was not involved, I wasn't in contact with them. I was in some general telephone conversations with Dr. Richardson, but we had not conducted any new analysis of the Hazen and Sawyer work for the presentation to the Funding Council on November the 19th. It was a pretty much updated summary of our prior presentations of August 7th and August 13th. Q So there was another presentation document that was presented on November 19th? A A presentation document, outline format. Q And what was done to update it from the materials that had been presented or available for presentation on August 13th? A Well, some of it was a change in emphasis. For example, that particular presentation looked at price assumptions and questioned the methodology of Hazen and Sawyer over the price level, over the inflation of the price, so on and so forth. It was sort of like: This is what we believe to be one of the flawed assumptions of Hazen and Sawyer, it could have been done like ÄÄ you know. Like: What went wrong with Hazen and Sawyer? And our character says: What would have been a better way to have dealt with this? And what we concluded or what we pleaded was that Hazen and Sawyer would consider ÄÄ seriously consider if they were to do another analysis that they give attention to what we thought were flawed assumptions and that the District give us an opportunity to meet with Hazen and Sawyer to talk about them and that the analysis be extended to a twenty-year period, and so forth. Q But no new numbers. A No new numbers, absolutely. Q Not just by Peterson, but by. . . A By anybody. Q Had any adjustments been made in numbers? A No new numbers, no, and that can be corroborated by looking at the outline, the overheads that were presented, the numbers were the same, you know. Q Okay. Moving then from the November 19th Funding Council presentation, to the December 16th meeting. A Yes. Q Take me from November 19th to December 16th, in terms of the work that was being done, it any. A Okay. A lot of differences took place. It was a very significant ÄÄ there were significant changes in terms of what Richardson and I began to do and did do in preparation for the meeting of the economists. Q Before we ÄÄ if you'll bear with me, I don't mean to interrupt you, but just on a detail point while you're there. Do you know when the meeting of economists was agreed upon for December 16th? A I can't recall that, but I imagine it was somewhere in early December. I cannot recall when that date was agreed upon. Q Was that the event that triggered these changes in approach by you and Dr. Richardson? A That was, in part. There was also a Protective Order that came to my attention about that time and our realization, as we began to look at this issue of why is there such a difference? Why is it difficult to explain these huge differences in impact? Maybe it would be better if we could place the battle on a plane where comparisons would be more readily understood by the public and by others who were trying to grapple with why are there these big differences. So our decision making was to say we will adopt the model framework of Hazen and Sawyer's analysis, even though we think there may be some problems with it. Let's adopt that so that that doesn't become an issue. Let's completely go to public sources of data, as did Hazen and Sawyer, so that we remove this kind of doubt that: Oh, maybe the reason why they have such big numbers is that the League economists are using data from individual farms and Hazen and Sawyer are using data from some other source and that's the reason for not ÄÄ it's not because of this and that and that and this. So we said: Let's remove that doubt and let's utilize the same data base, same data sources. So let's use the same model structure, let's utilize publicly available data, and we thought we were all using FLIPSIM or something like that, so we were all using the same methodology, basically as a starter; so, therefore, the focus will be placed on the assumptions and placed on what constitutes total revenue and what constitutes cost, and where we think the appropriate battleground should be on the assumptions. So in preparation for the December 16th meeting we said: Let's now take a new ÄÄ forget that earlier analysis, let's take a new look at this thing and let's take a look at how we would view Hazen and Sawyer's analysis within now a new model framework, mainly the Hazen and Sawyer's model, which average the different Belt Zones, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and the farm sizes that Hazen and Sawyer had, the large and small size, average size, which are within each zone belt, and we adopted all of that. The yields that Hazen and Sawyer had and so forth. I'm not the expert on this firm analysis, Dr. Richardson is, and so if you want to get into all the details about what the specific yield was for each of the zone belts, for the large farm, small farm, you would have to ask Dr. Richardson. But we, as a general strategy, we said: let's adopt this framework and let's analyze the Hazen and Sawyer report in that context. And we did. Q Were there any other aspects of the Hazen and Sawyer's methodology, besides the yield belts, the different size model farms and the yield numbers that you adopted? A Would you repeat that? Q Were there any other aspects of Hazen and Sawyer's methodology that you adopted and changed from your previous work, besides the yield belt, the different size model farms and the yield values? A Well, let me state that we attempted to validate the Hazen and Sawyer study by taking all of the data that Hazen and Sawyer had. As a matter of fact, in our outline of results of December the 16th, we took the Hazen and Sawyer price, price trend and the costs, and we replicated Hazen and Sawyer to the penny, and you would have to ask Dr. Richardson about, you know, how we did that. Q Okay. A So we replicated it. So we believe that we know every element of the Hazen and Sawyer analysis and we can reproduce it, not only to then penny but over the ten-year planning horizon that she studied. So we took he analysis and then said: Let's now look at some of the assumptions and. . . So, I don't know if I'm answering your question, but one phase of this, you know, we adopted all of it, all of Hazen and Sawyer, all of it. Q What do you mean one phase of this we adopted. . . A Well, one phase of it was, if you look at the table that we presented at that meeting of economists, which we also later presented to the members of the Governing Board, we had three levels of analyses. We had one ÄÄ we think price is a critical component of all this debate ÄÄ one, where we said we accept, for purposes of argument, we accept Hazen and Sawyer's price level of thirty-five dollars and ninety cents a ton, with a trend factor of increasing that price one point seven percent per year over the planning horizon to reflect the efficiencies of the mill. Given that assumption, we analyzed the impact in that ÄÄ but then we changed other assumptions with attempt to yield risk, so on and so forth. Then the second one was where we said: Let's assume that the price level of Hazen and Sawyer's thirty-five dollars and ninety cents a ton, but we will not admit the trend, because we found some statistical problems with Dr. Johns' analysis of trend. Then we said: Let's take a third price level where we assume the average season price that growers, in fact, receive and reported by the Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service, over the last five-year period, let's take that price, which is thirty dollars and some cents per ton, and let's show the impact of that. So we did those three scenarios, utilizing FLIPSIM. Q So there were two scenarios that were not pure replications of Hazen and Sawyer and one that was? I'm not. . . A Well, it's confusing, because we, first of all, we didn't report ÄÄ I should correct that ÄÄ we did not report in that presentation our replication that replicates Hazen and Sawyer to the penny, we did not report that in the table, but we stand ready to produce that. I'm sure Dr. Richardson can produce that replication. What we did in our December 16th presentation was show her price trend, her price level and trend, and show the economic impact if we consider a different interpretation of some of the assumptions, namely, for example, debt, so on and so forth. At some point, if you want to get into the FLIPSIM methodology, I'm not the expert on that, Dr. Richardson is, but I would be more than willing to discuss what that means and how similar our first stages of analysis were with Hazen and Sawyer over the land use, which is apparently becoming an issue as to whether or not we do land use and some people are arguing that we only look at farm/firms and we don't look at land use and so on and so forth. Q All right. I think later we'll get into some of those questions during the course of the deposition. Now, being primarily interested in kind of trying to establish what was done and when it was done, so that we have a framework for questioning about these issues. A Yes. Q As I understand it, there was an analysis done that replicated Hazen and Sawyer to the penny. A Yes. Q Then do I understand correctly that analyses were rerun. . . A Yes. Q Varying certain assumptions. A Yes. Q To produce the results that were summarized at the December 16th meeting? A Yes. Q With Hazen and Sawyer? A That's correct. Q And those were three scenarios, so there were three analyses, there was ÄÄ let me lay it out and you can tell me where this goes wrong or where it needs