1
1 DIVISION OF ADMINISTRATIVE HEARING
DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION, STATE OF FLORIDA
2
Case Nos. 92-3038, 92-3039, 923040
3
SUGAR CANE GROWERS COOPERATIVE OF )
4 FLORIDA, a Florida agricultural )
cooperative marketing association; ROTH )
5 FARMS, INC.; and WEDGEWORTH FARMS, INC.,)
)
6 and )
)
7 FLORIDA SUGAR CANE LEAGUE, INC.; UNITED )
STATES SUGAR CORPORATION; and NEW HOPE )
8 SOUTH, INC., )
)
9 and )
)
10 FLORIDA FRUIT AND VEGETABLE ASSOCIATION,)
LEWIS POPE FARMS, W.E. SCHLECHTER & )
11 SONS, INC., and HUNDLEY FARMS, INC., )
)
12 Petitioners, )
)
13 vs. )
)
14 SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT )
an Agency of the State of Florida, )
15 )
Respondent, )
16 )
and )
17 )
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, )
18 MICCOSUKEE TRIBE OF INDIANS, the )
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL )
19 REGULATION, the FLORIDA WILDLIFE )
FEDERATION, et al. )
20 )
Respondent-Intervenors. )
21 )
________________________________________/
22 DEPOSITION
23 OF
24 JAMES T. McCLAVE
25 Taken December 10, 1992
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1 STATE OF FLORIDA )
2 COUNTY OF ALACHUA )
3 Deposition of JAMES T, McCLAVE, taken at the
4 instance of respondent herein, pursuant to Notice of
5 Taking Deposition, at 305 Southeast Second Avenue,
6 Gainesville, Florida, on Thursday, December 10, 1992, at
7 9:00 o'clock a.m., before Harrisse S. Coffee, C.S.R.,
8 C.P., Registered Professional Reporter and a Notary Public
9 in and for the State of Florida at Large.
10 - - -
11 APPEARANCES:
12 GARY PERKO, Esquire, of the law firm of Hopping,
Boyd, Green & Sams, 123 South Calhoun Street, Post Office
13 Box 6526, Tallahassee, Florida 32314, (904) 222-7500,
appearing for Petitioners Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative
14 of Florida, Roth Farms, Inc., and Wedgeworth Farms, Inc.
15 ROBERT H. BLANK, Esquire, of the law firm of
Peeples, Earl & Blank, One Biscayne Tower, Suite 3536, Two
16 South Biscayne Boulevard, Miami, Florida 33131, (305)
358-3000, appearing for Petitioners Florida Sugar Cane
17 League, Incl, United States Sugar Corporation, and New
Hope South, Inc.
18
GEOFFREY GARVER, Esquire, U.S. Department of
19 Justice, Environment & Natural Resources Division, General
Litigation Section, P.O. Box 663, Washington, D.C.
20 20044-0663, (202) 272-4692, appearing for
Respondent-Intervenor United States of America.
21
ALSO PRESENT:
22
DOUGLAS S. ROBSON, Ph.D., Statistical Consultant.
23
- - -
24
25
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1 I N D E X
2 WITNESS: PAGE:
3 JAMES T. McCLAVE
4 Direct Examination by Mr. Garver 5
5 - - -
6 EXHIBITS
7 DEPOSITION EXHIBIT FOR IDENTIFICATION
8 No. 1 - Proposal for water analyses 43
9 No. 2 - Affidavit 79
10 No. 3 - Document notes 111
11 No. 4 - Notes on a review 112
12 No. 5 - Critique 119
13 No. 6 - Appendix E 126
14 No. 7 - SAS printout 149
15 No. 8 - Correlation coefficients 150
16 No. 9 - Step-wise regression analysis 159
17 No. 10 - Cluster analysis 160
18 No. 11 - Cluster analysis 162
19 No. 12 - Regression model 164
20 No. 13 - Second order model 172
21 No. 14 - Station specific model 181
22 No. 15 - Database 184
23 No. 16 - Regression analysis model 186
24 No. 17 - Model of four quadrants 189
25 No. 18 - Observations 191
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1 EXHIBITS (CONTINUED)
2 DEPOSITION EXHIBIT FOR IDENTIFICATION
3 No. 19 - Models 194
4 No. 20 - Regression models 197
5 No. 21 - Analyses of Maffei data 199
6 No. 22 - Results of Info Tech modeling 201
7 No. 23 - Correlation analyses 204
8 No. 24 - Info Tech graphics 206
9 No. 25 - Plot 209
10
11 Certificate of Reporter 218
12 - - -
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1 JAMES T. McCLAVE,
2 having been produced and first duly sworn, testified as
3 follows:
4 DIRECT EXAMINATION
5 BY MR. GARVER:
6 Q Please state your name, and spell your last
7 name, please.
8 A My name is James T, McClave, M-c-C-l-a-v-e.
9 Q This is Sugar Cane Gowers Cooperative of
10 Florida, et al. versus South Florida Water Management
11 District, et al., Cases No. 92-3038, 92-3039, 92-3040.
12 And I am Geoffrey Garver. I'm an attorney with
13 the United States Department of Justice. I'm representing
14 the United States in this proceeding.
15 Dr. McClave, you've been listed by the Sugar
16 Cane Cooperative as an expert witness who will testify on
17 the interim and long term phosphorus concentration limits
18 for the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge and
19 Everglades National Park. Is that consistent with your
20 understanding of your expected testimony in this matter?
21 A It is.
22 Q Are there any other areas you anticipate giving
23 expert testimony on in this proceeding?
24 A The only other area that's most recently been
25 brought to my attention, and it may or may not be
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1 encompassed in what you've said, but just to be sure that
2 I've mentioned it, is the issue of settling velocities.
3 And, in particular, I think there's been some statistical
4 analyses done by Dr. Walker in a recent report that I've
5 just received and haven't had a chance to review at this
6 point, but I've been told I may be asked to review the
7 statistical aspects of that report.
8 Q To this point have you done any work with
9 respect to settling velocities?
10 A I have not.
11 Q Have you ever had your deposition taken before,
12 Dr. McClave?
13 A Yes.
14 Q Then you understand that I'll be asking you a
15 series of questions, and I am entitled to your complete
16 and honest answers to those questions. Unless your
17 attorney tells you otherwise, you must answer the
18 questions that I ask you.
19 A I understand.
20 Q If you don't understand the question, which is
21 not at all improbable, given the nature of this
22 deposition, please let me know and I'll attempt to
23 rephrase it.
24 I'm certainly not an expert in this area, and
25 sometimes my phraseology may be a little awkward. So if
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1 that happens, please let me know and I'll do my best to
2 get back on track.
3 A All right.
4 Q Dr. McClave, have you done anything to prepare
5 for this deposition?
6 A Yes.
7 Q What have you done?
8 A I have reviewed my files and met with
9 Mr. Perko yesterday in preparation.
10 Q Okay. Have you read the notice of deposition
11 for this deposition?
12 A I did at some point, yes; probably when I first
13 received it.
14 Q Okay. Are you familiar with the list of
15 documents that was attached to the back of that deposition
16 notice, asking you to produce certain documents?
17 A Yes.
18 Q And have you produced all the documents that you
19 have in your possession that are responsive to the list
20 attached to the deposition notice?
21 A I intended to. I think I have, yes.
22 MR. PERKO: For the record, I'd note that we
23 have withheld I think it's six documents on the basis
24 of privilege that's indicated in the letter that I
25 sent to you last week.
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1 MR. GARVER: Okay. Mr. Perko, I have received
2 that list, yes.
3 BY MR. GARVER:
4 Q Can you just describe to me, in general, what
5 documents you have produced in connection with the
6 following categories.
7 The first category was all documents that
8 describe, explain or relate to statistical analysis of
9 SWIM plan interim and the long term phosphorus
10 concentration limits or levels for the Loxahatchee
11 National Wildlife Refuge and/or Everglades National Park.
12 A May I look at what you're reading from? That
13 would help me. That was a long sentence.
14 Q (Document handed to witness.)
15 A (Witness perusing document.)
16 I would say that the documents that respond to
17 number one are a number of printouts, a large number of
18 what I'll call statistical computer printouts, some of
19 which are just data, many of which are statistical
20 analyses that were performed on these data.
21 I produced, I believe, documents that the
22 District -- contained the District's statistical analyses.
23 And I guess a broad reading of this would -- it doesn't
24 say just my analyses, so I guess that would respond to
25 that as well.
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1 And I believe that I produced at least one
2 affidavit that I had written and several by others,
3 including Dr. Walker, and I believe Dr. Pollman, that were
4 in my possession that related to statistical analyses, at
5 least in part.
6 Q Are there any other documents that you can
7 recall at this time that you produced, responsive to
8 category number one?
9 A Other than to say that, at least in my mind,
10 most of what I produced would fall under category one and
11 to the extent I haven't described them all, there may be
12 others. But I -- but just so you understand, the way I
13 view it, most of what I produced had to do with
14 statistical analyses in this area.
15 Q Okay. With respect to the second category,
16 which includes all documents regarding Lake Okeechobee, or
17 Everglades water quality and/or water quantity, including
18 but not limited to those issues raised in the Sugar Cane
19 Growers Cooperative, et al. petition for formal
20 administrative proceedings pursuant to Section 120.57(1)
21 Florida Statutes?
22 A I would say that -- I'm not sure what that
23 means. I'll respond as best I can, that the data -- much
24 of the data involves water quality, so the raw data that I
25 produced I think might be responsive to that. There may
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1 be some redundancy between one and two in that regard.
2 And there were certain reports that I produced
3 that I had looked at or relied upon that had to do with
4 studies of what I remember of water quality studies in the
5 Everglades or Lake Okeechobee.
6 Q Are these reports that you're referring to
7 reports including such things as District technical
8 publications --
9 A That's --
10 Q -- and other publicly available literature?
11 A Yes. That's what I had in mind, yes. Certain
12 University of Florida, I think, publications and District
13 publications.
14 Q All right. With respect to the third category,
15 which includes any and all documents utilized or relied
16 upon in preparing, formulating, developing, authoring,
17 co-authoring, reviewing or organizing anticipated expert
18 testimony in this action, what documents have you produced
19 in that category?
20 A Well, again I would put the reports, including
21 certainly Dr. Walker's reports, in that category, as well
22 as the reports we just talked about under number two.
23 Certainly District documents that had to do with the SWIM
24 plan would, I guess, fall under that -- under number three
25 as well.
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1 That's what comes to mind.
2 Q Have you yourself authored or co-authored any
3 reports or other documents in preparing for your
4 anticipated testimony?
5 A I think to this point the only thing that I've
6 authored, the only thing that comes to my mind right now,
7 is an affidavit that was submitted sometime back having to
8 do with Walker's analysis of the ENP.
9 Q When you say ENP you mean Everglades National
10 Park?
11 A That's right.
12 Q And with respect to the fourth category, all
13 technical publications, technical memoranda, or other
14 publications you've authored or co-authored, or the
15 preparation of which you participated in, relating to the
16 Everglades protection area, the Everglades agricultural
17 area, or any other subject matter in this action, or
18 documents that you produced in connection with that
19 category?
20 A Again, there may be others, but the one that I'm
21 remembering right now is the affidavit we just talked
22 about. I don't think there are any others.
23 Q Okay. Dr. McClave, what is your occupation?
24 A I'm a statistician.
25 Q And how long have you been a statistician?
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1 A Well, I began the study of statistics in 1966.
2 I received a Ph.D. in that area in 1971.
3 Q And how are you employed?
4 A I am currently president of Info Tech,
5 Incorporated.
6 Q I believe you just stated you obtained a Ph.D.
7 in 1971. Is that correct?
8 A Yes.
9 Q Do you have any other professional degrees?
10 A I have a Bachelor of Science in physics as
11 well.
12 Q Where did you get your Bachelor of Science in
13 physics?
14 A At Bucknell University.
15 Q Did you study statistics while earning your
16 Bachelor's?
17 A Yes, I did take a number of courses on the
18 undergraduate level in statistics; yes.
19 Q Do you recall how many courses you took on
20 statistics in your undergraduate education?
21 A Roughly half a dozen.
22 Q Do you recall the names of any of those courses?
23 A Too long ago. They would generally have been in
24 the area of introductory statistics.
25 I took just about every statistics course that
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1 Bucknell University had to offer so it would have ranged
2 from introductory statistics up through regression
3 analysis and analysis of variants and the like.
4 Q Did you take enough statistics to have what
5 would be called a minor in statistics while you were at
6 Bucknell?
7 A I think that I had enough to qualify for a minor
8 in mathematics. We did not have a degree in statistics.
9 Bucknell did not offer a degree in statistics. I believe
10 that I ended up with a minor in math, primarily as a
11 result of all the math and statistics that I had taken.
12 Q What course work did you take in statistics
13 while earning your Ph.D?
14 A Gosh. I would need a transcript to tell you
15 that. Basically every course that the University of
16 Florida offered in statistics. I can start and try to
17 list as many as I can, but it would have been Theory of
18 Statistics, at least four semesters; four semesters of
19 what we called Applied Statistics, Design of Experiments,
20 Analysis of Variants, Regression Analysis and the like,
21 Time Series Analysis, Nonbarometric Statistics, Sequential
22 Analysis.
23 I'm sure there are many more that I'm
24 forgetting, but basically the catalogue for the University
25 of Florida would tell you, because it's just about every
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1 course that they offered I'm sure that I took during those
2 five years.
3 Q So you got your Ph.D. at the University of
4 Florida; is that correct?
5 A I did, yes.
6 Q Did you have any teaching or research assistant
7 positions while getting your Ph.D?
8 A I did, yes.
9 Q Can you describe those positions for me, please?
10 A I participated both in teaching and consulting
11 as a graduate student. I had an assistantship the entire
12 time, as I recall, and by the time I got my Ph.D. I was
13 teaching at least half time. I was teaching large section
14 statistics courses by 1970 and '71.
15 So most of it was teaching, as I recall, but in
16 some semesters I would also do some consulting around
17 campus in various areas in the agricultural school and
18 medical school, for example.
19 Q Do you recall what courses you were teaching
20 specifically?
21 A Primarily it would have been -- we have several
22 introductory undergraduate statistics courses, and what I
23 recall is teaching those, those courses. I may have
24 occasionally in the summer, for example, taught a little
25 more advanced level, but primarily while I was earning my
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1 Ph.D. I was teaching introductory statistics.
2 Q Were you a research assistant at any time while
3 getting your Ph.D?
4 A I don't know what the University of Florida
5 called it. It may have been called a research
6 assistantship, but I just remember it as being an
7 assistantship and we did both -- our duties included
8 whatever we were told to do, but primarily it was teaching
9 and consulting.
10 Q Did you conduct any research while you were
11 getting your Ph.D?
12 A Well, other than my Ph.D. research, you mean?
13 Outside of the research I was doing for my Ph.D., or
14 including that?
15 Q Why don't we start with outside of your Ph.D.
16 A Other than research that would have been
17 involved -- in other words, when a statistician consults
18 with another researcher, there's a joint effort involved
19 there in research. So I would have done some research
20 with others, usually faculty members who needed
21 statistical help.
22 I did not conduct any primarily statistical
23 research, other than what I was doing for my Ph.D., during
24 that period.
25 Q What research did you conduct towards getting
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1 your Ph.D?
2 A The area in which I got my Ph.D. was known as
3 time series analysis, and so I conducted several years of
4 research in the general area of time series analysis and,
5 in particular, in time series modeling.
6 Q Can you explain to me generally what time series
7 analysis is?
8 A Time series analysis is the area of statistics
9 that explicitly looks at data which are collected in some
10 sequence over time, and tries to take into account the
11 fact that -- the time factor in the data. Whereas many
12 data analyses would not be considering time as a factor,
13 time series analysis explicitly considers time as a
14 factor.
15 Q And can you describe to me, just in general at
16 this point, what would be involved in time series
17 modeling?
18 A In general - and this is very general, but to
19 just give you the flavor, most of the time when data are
20 modeled, we assume that the data are independent of one
21 another and don't have any kind of correlation with one
22 another. In a -- you know, as far as assumptions are
23 concerned.
24 In time series analysis, it's acknowledged that
25 there's probably going to what be what we call serial
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1 dependence. If you're talking about a business cycle, for
2 example, you're either in an up cycle or a down cycle, and
3 observations in the up cycle are likely to be related, and
4 so are those in the down cycle.
5 So in a very general way I would say time series
6 analysis and time series models consider explicitly the
7 serial dependence of data, whereas most statistical
8 analyses or conventional statistical analyses do not.
9 Q And I believe you said that the main difference
10 would be that in those other conventional analyses,
11 different factors or variables would be assumed to be
12 independent. Is that the main difference?
13 A There's usually an underlying assumption of
14 independence of the underlying random structure of the
15 data in a conventional analysis, and that assumption is
16 what goes away usually, is not made in a time series
17 analysis.
18 Again, that's a pretty gross oversimplification,
19 because time series, as you might imagine, involves -- has
20 involved many person years of research over the last --
21 it's really only about twenty-five or thirty years old as
22 a serious science, but -- there's much more to it than
23 that, but that does, I hope, give you some idea of the
24 difference between conventional analyses and time series
25 analyses.
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1 Q Did you take any -- do any course work in
2 stochastic processes?
3 A Yes.
4 Q What kind of course work did you take in that?
5 A Well, stochastic processes, the concept of a
6 process is usually related to time. It doesn't have to
7 be. And so stochastic processes is the theoretical
8 underpinnings, in a sense, at least as I look at it, to
9 time series.
10 And so at Florida we had to take or we did take
11 - we had to take, I think, two years - at least one year
12 that I remember for sure of theoretical stochastic
13 processes before getting into the time series analysis and
14 time series research.
15 Q Okay.
16 A And, in fact, now that you mention it, I also
17 taught -- there was a course that we taught over TV to
18 engineers down at Cape Canaveral - at that time it was
19 Cape Canaveral - on stochastic processes, and I taught
20 that course as I neared the completion of my Ph.D., so
21 that was one graduate level course. They were earning
22 graduate level credits, and I taught the stochastic
23 processes course to them.
24 Q Was your assistantship tied to a particular
25 professor at the University of Florida?
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1 A The assistantship?
2 Q Yes.
3 A No, not that I remember. It would have been
4 various professors over time.
5 Q Did you have a particular major professor that
6 you worked with during -- while getting you Ph.D?
7 A Yes, I did.
8 Q Who was that?
9 A Dr. Kamal, K-a-m-a-l, Chanda, C-h-a-n-d-a.
10 Q What was involved in -- you wrote a dissertation
11 in connection with your getting your Ph.D.; correct?
12 A I did.
13 Q What was involved in putting together your
14 dissertation? What did you do?
15 A It involved at least a year of background
16 research, in addition to course work. We've already
17 talked about course work. It involved about a year's, as
18 I recall, independent research with Dr. Chanda, looking
19 for a topic, becoming familiar with the general area that
20 I wanted to do my research in, which was time series
21 modeling, and then about a year of proving theorems and
22 getting results an writing it up.
23 So this was about two solid years, as I recall,
24 of research and development of the thesis.
25 Q What specific type of research was involved in
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1 honing in on your topic?
2 A We were working in the area of time series
3 modeling. More specifically we were doing logistic
4 process modeling, which is a specific kind of time series
5 model. So much of it, as I recall, involved reading every
6 piece of research that had been done in that area, and
7 finding out whether the problem that we thought hadn't
8 been solved indeed had been solved, or what progress had
9 been made on the problem, and then taking what had been
10 done forward another step.
11 Q Okay. And what was the specific area of time
12 series analysis or logistics?
13 A There -- I'm sorry.
14 Q What was --
15 A Logistic processes?
16 Q Logistic processes that you honed in on to do
17 research and write your dissertation on?
18 A It had to do with developing better estimates of
19 the parameters or the aspects of the model that were used
20 for forecasting in the future.
21 In other words, most time series models have at
22 least two objectives. One is to describe the process that
23 underlies what's called the past, the historic past. And
24 then two is to, once you believe you've made that
25 description, to use that to forecast the future of the
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1 process.
2 And again, a little bit of an over
3 simplification, but most of my research as I recall at
4 this point, twenty years later, involved the -- developing
5 better estimates of the parameters of the model, and thus
6 better forecasts of the future.
7 Q When you say "parameters of the model," what
8 parameters are you talking about?
9 A A parameter, to be -- to take a simple example,
10 if you had a straight line, a straight line has two
11 parameters: the intercept an the slope. Those are what we
12 mean by parameters.
13 Now, in a logistic time series model, there may
14 be three or four or five different parameters of the
15 model. Parameters are constants which, if you were
16 graphing the process, would put the model in two or three
17 or four dimensions, if you could draw it in two or three
18 or four dimensions.
19 So every -- every statistical model has some
20 number of parameters associated with it, and one of the
21 objectives of modeling is to develop the best estimates of
22 those parameters that you can.
23 Q And when you're -- when you're attempting to
24 estimate those parameters and -- no, let me back up.
25 We'll get to that later, maybe.
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1 When you say "best estimates" of parameters,
2 best in what sense do you mean?
3 A Best in a statistical sense. And typically what
4 that mens is an estimate that's not biased; it's not
5 tending to either miss the parameter on the high or low
6 side on a consistent basis; and one that has minimum
7 variance. That is an estimate that varies around the true
8 parameter as little as possible, falls as close to the
9 true parameter -- In other words, we think of a model
10 out there that's got some true value of the parameter that
11 we don't know, and we're trying to use data to estimate
12 that.
13 So we're trying to fall as close to it as we
14 can, to the real parameter, and to not miss it
15 consistently on one side or the other. That's a
16 typically, again, a little bit of over simplification, but
17 typically what we mean by best in statistics. That's what
18 we're trying to do.
19 Q When you were doing your Ph.D. research, what
20 specifically were you doing to try and come up with the
21 best estimates of parameters, the best way of estimating
22 parameters?
23 A We were considering -- all estimates are derived
24 from data. There are formulas that involve data that give
25 an estimate - that result in an estimate of a parameter.
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1 And we were working on formulas that were different than
2 formulas that had been heretofore utilized for certain
3 parameters, trying to improve the estimates in the senses
4 that I just gave you, making them less biased and making
5 them smaller variants.
6 And, in particular, in the area of logistic
7 process modeling, there had not been -- the parameter
8 estimates that were being utilized at that point in time
9 were relatively simple, and we were using somewhat more
10 complex estimates.
11 Q And were you -- you were successful? Were you
12 successful in developing methods for getting better
13 estimates of the parameters?
14 A Yes. My recollection is we advanced -- the
15 whole idea, I think, of - at least now looking back and
16 having directed Ph.D. dissertations myself, is to make
17 some advance forward, and I think we did that. The
18 results ended up being published and there's been a lot
19 done since then to still further improve.
20 But, yes, at that point in time I think we were
21 successful.
22 Q Okay. And in what way did your research and
23 your dissertation, your Ph.D. work, make improvements over
24 what had been done before?
25 A At that point in time, this is late 1960s and
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1 early '70s, there still was a lot of time series
2 estimation that was done - what I call by hand. That is,
3 it was not taking full advantage of the computer power
4 that was just then becoming available.
5 And I think the main thing that we did was make
6 it evident that these complicated processes could be
7 computerized, and we could take full advantage of complex
8 formulae to estimate parameters; that we did not need to
9 rely on simple scratch pad kinds of calculations. So as I
10 look back, one of the main things we did was, in that
11 particular area of time series, bring it into the computer
12 age. And since then almost all the analyses have been
13 computer driven.
14 Q Okay. You mentioned, I believe, that your
15 thesis was published. Is that correct?
16 A Yes. I published several papers within the next
17 three or four years after getting my Ph.D. that were
18 derived from the work in my dissertation.
19 Q Was your dissertation itself published?
20 A You mean in toto?
21 Q Yes.
22 A No, other than just in the usual way. I mean
23 it's published for the purpose of the University of
24 Florida Libraries, but not in any journal or anything,
25 no.
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1 Q You mentioned three or four publications that --
2 of your work. Is that correct?
3 A Right. In other words, I kept working in that
4 area after I got my degree. And I would say there are
5 several publications, probably three or four that, if I
6 looked at my vitae, I would say that in some way was
7 derived from my dissertation.
8 Q Did one of those publications include a
9 publication Biometrika, entitled "On the bias of
10 autoregressive approximations to moving averages"?
11 A Yes. I would classify it in that category.
12 Q Do you recall any of the other publications
13 where your dissertation work was published?
14 A Not without looking at my vitae, I don't, no.
15 It's been long enough ago that I've forgotten the -- I
16 think there was one in the Journal of the American
17 Statistical Association, but other than those two, I don't
18 recall.
19 Q Is that an article entitled "Choosing the order
20 of an autoregressive process: the max chi-square
21 Technique"?
22 A That's right.
23 Q What did you do after -- well, when did you get
24 your Ph.D?
25 A 1971.
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1 Q Okay. What did you do after obtaining your
2 Ph.D?
3 A I accepted a postdoctoral position at the State
4 University of New York at Buffalo.
5 Q And how long were you there?
6 A I was there for one academic year.
7 Q And what years -- what year was that?
8 A That was 1971-'72, as I recall. It might have
9 been '72-'73 but I think it was '71-'72.
10 Q What did you do during that postdoctoral
11 period?
12 A There was an individual there by the name of
13 Emanuel Parzen, P-a-r-z-e-n, who was and is one of the
14 foremost researchers in time series analysis. And I
15 wanted to continue my study of time series under someone
16 of his stature, and had the opportunity to do that and did
17 that for a year.
18 Q What kind of work did you do with Dr. Parzen?
19 A I continued my time series research that I had
20 started with my dissertation, began to expand it into the
21 areas that led to the publications that we just talked
22 about, plus some others, as I recall. I attended his
23 advanced time series class for that year, and just had the
24 opportunity to talk and do research with him for a year.
25 Q Did you do any teaching during that year?
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1 A I did, yes.
2 Q What did you do following your year at Buffalo?
3 A I returned, as a faculty member, to the
4 University of Florida.
5 Q And for how long were you a professor at the
6 University of Florida?
7 A Assuming I've got my years right, and I think I
8 do, I came in 1972 and taught basically full time, with
9 some leaves here and there and sabbaticals here and there
10 until 1989, so I guess eighteen years; seventeen, eighteen
11 years.
12 Q Your vitae states that you are now an adjunct
13 professor at the University of Florida. Is that correct?
14 A That's correct, yes.
15 Q What is the nature of your position as an
16 adjunct professor?
17 A I was with the college of business the last
18 seven or eight years of my tenure at the University of
19 Florida. And when I decided to leave, I was asked to
20 remain as an adjunct with a center known as the Public
21 Policy Research Center at the University of Florida.
22 And I still go back and lecture occasionally to
23 them. And it's just an informal appointment with the
24 University of Florida through that center.
25 Q All right. Do you ever teach full courses any
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1 more?
2 A I have -- the intent, when we talked about the
3 adjunct, was to do that on occasion, but it's only been
4 two years now, and that hasn't happened yet. It's just
5 been occasional teaching assignments.
6 Q Okay. While you were teaching either at the
7 SUNY Buffalo or at the University of Florida, did you
8 direct any graduate research?
9 A Yes.
10 Q And how many Ph.D. candidates' work did you
11 direct or --
12 A Actual major professor direction, only a couple;
13 probably two. As far as being on committees, Ph.D.
14 committees and having some directional responsibility,
15 probably twenty.
16 Q Do you recall the subject matter of the Ph.D.
17 work in which you were the major professor?
18 A It was time series analysis in both cases.
19 Q Was there a specific aspect of time series
20 analysis involved in those Ph.D. programs?
21 A Yes. It was considered continuing in the same
22 line as my research had been for the last - at that point,
23 ten years of modeling, parameter estimation, and the like.
24 (Off-record discussion.)
25 (Brief recess.)
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1 BY MR. GARVER:
2 Q Well, now that we've taken a very short break,
3 Dr. McClave, I'll just ask you to let me know any time you
4 feel you need a break.
5 A Thank you. I will.
6 Q I'll be glad to accommodate that.
7 A Okay.
8 Q I believe you were going over the areas that --
9 the specific areas or subareas of time series analysis
10 involved in the Ph.D. work that you directed as a major
11 professor. Is that correct?
12 A Right.
13 Q Sorry for having you do this, but could you just
14 go over all that?
15 A Yes. It was an extension of research that I had
16 been doing for ten years which, again, in general,
17 involved time series modeling, parameter estimation, use
18 of computers in developing better estimates for time
19 series parameters and that would have been the same area
20 that my students worked in.
21 Q Did those students, those two or so students
22 whose Ph.D. work you were directing as a major professor,
23 did they obtain their Ph.Ds?
24 A Yes.
25 Q I believe you mentioned earlier that you're the
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1 president of Info Tech, Incorporated. Is that correct?
2 A Yes.
3 Q What is Info Tech?
4 A Info Tech is a statistical and econometric
5 consulting firm, as well as a software development firm.
6 Q And when was Info Tech founded?
7 A In 1977, I believe, we became a corporation.
8 Q And were you the founder of Info Tech?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Did you start Info Tech on your own?
11 A I believe, in the very beginning, there were two
12 other professors involved, and we formed a partnership.
13 That was probably about 1975.
14 By the time that it became a corporation, I was
15 full owner, sole owner.
16 Q Okay. Who were the other professors that you
17 were in partnership with?
18 A When it was a partnership, there was Dr. Richard
19 Scheaffer, that's S-c-h-e-a-f-f-e-r, and Dr. Ray Littell,
20 L-i-t-t-e-l-l.
21 Q And when you started Info Tech, were they
22 involved at all in starting that business up?
23 A By the time it became a corporation?
24 Q Yes.
25 A No. We had done several jobs together as
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1 partners, and they both decided to focus on other things.
2 Q Did you have any other employees at Info
3 Tech when you began?
4 A I may have had a -- well, I'm sure my wife would
5 be upset if I didn't say that she was an employee, because
6 she was a big factor in helping me get started. But it
7 wasn't very long before we hired a receptionist as well,
8 secretary as well.
9 But I think when I first started -- in '77 when
10 it became a corporation, it was probably just my wife and
11 I.
12 Q How many people are employed by Info Tech today?
13 A Approximately forty.
14 Q What is the organizational structure of Info
15 Tech now?
16 A I'm sorry, I'm not sure I understand.
17 Q You're the president; is that correct?
18 A Yes.
19 Q Are there any vice-presidents?
20 A Oh, yes. I have a vice-president in charge of
21 the software development division. His name is Dr. Tom
22 Rothrock, R-o-t-h-r-o-c-k. He's the only other management
23 level, or executive management level, individual.
24 We have some team leaders and the like. We're
25 organized roughly into teams, and each team has a team
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1 leader.
2 Q How many different teams are there?
3 A Five or six, I believe.
4 Q Do the teams have different subject areas that
5 they focus on?
6 A Yes, they do.
7 Q What are those different areas?
8 A We have one that we call a consulting team that
9 does the statistical and econometric consulting. We have
10 a team involved with -- most of the rest of the teams are
11 involved with software development, and we have what we
12 call our development team. We have a team of customer
13 support people. We have an accounting team. We have
14 decision support system team, called the DSS team. We
15 have a PC, a personal computer operations and development
16 team.
17 I believe that's it.
18 Q How many of your forty or so employees are
19 professional level employees?
20 A Probably about seventy-five percent; twenty-five
21 or thirty I'd say, of them.
22 Q How many of those employees are Ph.D. level
23 employees?
24 A At least three that I can think of. I think
25 it's three. There may be several others. I'm not sure.
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1 Q What type of software does Info Tech develop?
2 A Primarily what we have developed is a software
3 to perform statistical and econometric analyses in the
4 detection of white collar crime and, more specifically,
5 antitrust violations. And most of the software we've
6 developed has been installed in state and federal agencies
7 who are purchasing through the sealed bid process. And so
8 our software assists in analyzing those bids for potential
9 violations.
10 Q Your vitae lists a number of consulting projects
11 you've done, and one of those projects is some work you
12 did for the Florida Electric Power Consulting Group,
13 involving statistical analysis of water quality data to
14 evaluate compliance with Department of Environmental
15 Regulations Secondary Standards. Is that correct?
16 A Yes.
17 Q Can you describe to me that project you did for
18 Florida Electric Power Consulting Group?
19 A I don't remember many details, other than the
20 fact that I think it had to do with the measurement of
21 water quality at wells on the boundaries of the plants,
22 and the standards that the water in those wells had to
23 meet and the statistical analysis of those data. Quite
24 frankly, I don't remember what parameters we were looking
25 at even, at this point in time. That's about all I
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1 remember about it.
2 Q Were you involved personally in that project?
3 A Yes, um-hmm.
4 Q Do you recall what types of statistical analysis
5 you did in connection with those data?
6 A I'm sorry, I don't. I'd have to review our
7 files on it. I just don't remember.
8 Q Okay. And do you remember when that project was
9 conducted?
10 A The vitae should have a year or set of years
11 there. I don't remember.
12 Q It says 1986-1987. Does that --
13 A That sounds right.
14 Q Do you recall a project you did for
15 Environmental Science and Engineering and the
16 Environmental Protection Agency, Pesticides BAT Phase II
17 Project, involving the analysis of discharge of pesticide
18 plants to determine best available technology for
19 controlling pollutants?
20 A In general, yes. I remember doing that kind of
21 work.
22 Q Can you describe that project for me?
23 A I did a number -- there are a number of entries
24 on there that have to do with effluent guidelines,
25 guidelines for various industries, including pesticide,
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1 timber, and other industries, most of which came -- I
2 served or Info Tech served as a subcontractor to ESE, who
3 was contracted by EPA.
4 And what I remember doing for those was there
5 were a lot of data involved and I did the statistical
6 analysis and statistical support for those guideline
7 development projects.
8 Q Do you recall what type of statistical analysis
9 was involved generally in those effluent guideline type
10 projects?
11 A As I recall, it ranged from the very simple
12 descriptive analyses calculation, meaning the standard
13 deviations, to some pretty sophisticated regression
14 modeling, time -- it did involve some time series
15 modeling, as I recall.
16 So there was a very wide range, as I recall, of
17 statistical sophistication used in those analyses.
18 Q Do you recall specifically any of the projects
19 in which you were using regression modeling to develop
20 guidelines?
21 A I would answer you that I think I ended up using
22 regression in all of them, but that may be wrong. It
23 seems like most of them ended up involving some regression
24 analysis, regression modeling. And several of them,
25 probably not all of them, involved time series modeling.
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1 I don't remember the specifics of which.
2 Q Do you recall -- why in some cases did you do
3 time series analysis, and at other times not do it?
4 A It gets back to the serial correlation issue
5 that we discussed earlier. There were some cases where
6 the data were collected at regular intervals over time,
7 and it was obvious, on analyzing the data, there were time
8 series effects, serial correlation effects, that needed to
9 be taken into account. And my recollection is that, when
10 that was the case, we used time series modeling.
11 Q Do you recall any times when you had time series
12 data and did not do a time series analysis?
13 A No, I don't.
14 Q Do you recall specifically which projects you
15 used time series analysis on?
16 A No. I, again, would have to look back at the
17 files of those. Most of those have been ten or so years
18 ago, I think, if you look at the dates, and I just don't
19 recall.
20 Q Have you provided consulting services in
21 connection with litigation over water quality in the
22 Everglades?
23 A Not that I recall, no, not prior to this issue
24 here. I don't think so.
25 Q But you have been approached to provide
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1 consulting services in this litigation, dealing with water
2 quality of the Everglades; is that correct?
3 A Yes.
4 Q When were you first approached to provide
5 consulting services in connection with litigation over the
6 water quality in the Everglades?
7 A I don't recall the exact date. My best estimate
8 would be sometime in -- I don't think it was 1990. I
9 think it was sometime in 1991, early 1991. But again, I'd
10 have to look at our contracts, and so forth, to know for
11 sure.
12 Q Do you remember who first approached you?
13 A I believe I was first approached by Dr. Curt
14 Pollman, P-o-l-l-m-a-n, with KBN, who was already working
15 on the project, and my recollection is he called me about
16 doing some statistical work on the project.
17 Q Do you recall what you discussed with him at
18 that time?
19 A I think that the issue at that time was the BMP
20 rule, and the statistical analyses that were being -- had
21 been performed or were being proposed by the District. I
22 don't remember the name of the document, but I do remember
23 it had to do with BMP rule, and I was asked to review
24 those analyses.
25 I think that was the first thing I ever saw in
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1 this litigation.
2 Q Do you recall when you first saw this report or
3 approach with regard to the BMP rule?
4 A It would have been whenever that first contact
5 was, and again I'd have to look in my file. I don't
6 remember. It seems sitting here that it's been more than
7 a year ago, and I think it has, but I'm not positive about
8 that.
9 Q Did you actually do a review of some aspect of
10 the District's proposed BMP rule?
11 A I did, yes.
12 Q Did you provide any documentation of the work
13 you did with respect to the BMP rule in connection with
14 this deposition?
15 A I don't believe so, and the reason I didn't is I
16 viewed that as basically a separate project from the one
17 that we're working on now; perhaps mistakenly, but that's
18 the way we've been viewing it at Info Tech, anyway.
19 Q What type of analysis did you do in reviewing
20 the District's proposed BMP rule?
21 A The district had performed an analysis, as I
22 recall, regression analysis, on the data that were being
23 utilized to develop the BMP rule, and I analyzed those
24 same data to determine whether or not there were better
25 ways or different ways of modeling those same data,
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1 whether or not -- I was asked to determine whether or not
2 I agreed with the statistical approach that was being
3 taken.
4 I eventually considered some other data besides
5 those that were being used by the District. In
6 particular, I remember rainfall records going back much
7 further than had been utilized by the District.
8 So it was just generally statistical analysis of
9 the data involved in the BMP rule.
10 Q Do you recall what types of data were involved
11 in the BMP rule?
12 A Well, there certainly was phosphorus data. I
13 remember that. Rainfall data. And as I recall, the basic
14 concept was to relate phosphorus concentrations to
15 rainfall. That was the basic premise behind the rule.
16 Q What types of phosphorus data were involved?
17 A I'm sorry, I don't understand.
18 Q Where did the phosphorus data come from and what
19 locations were they taken from, and that sort of thing?
20 A I'm sorry, I don't recall any longer where the
21 -- I'd have to look back at the documents. I don't know.
22 MR. GARVER: Mr. Perko, just for the record, I
23 believe documentation regarding that work by
24 Dr. McClave would fall under the notice of
25 deposition.
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1 MR. PERKO: We can provide you that
2 information.
3 It does not relate to his anticipated testimony
4 in this case, however.
5 MR. GARVER: That's not the portion of --
6 MR. PERKO: I understand.
7 MR. GARVER: Okay.
8 Dr. McClave, I may have further questions
9 on that, but it would probably save time if I had the
10 documentation to look at and review before I do that,
11 so we'll move on.
12 BY MR. GARVER:
13 Q Aside from the BMP rule that you did some
14 statistical analysis with respect to, were there any other
15 consulting services you were asked to provide in
16 connection with litigation over water quality in the
17 Everglades?
18 A Other than what we've talked about in terms of
19 my anticipated testimony here?
20 Q No, no. Other than the BMP rule, and I'm
21 including any other work you've done including work
22 involving your anticipated testimony.
23 A I'm sorry. I still don't understand your
24 question.
25 Q What I'm trying to do is get a chronology of
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1 what you -- the work you performed, the consulting
2 services you provide in connection with Everglades water
3 quality issues.
4 A Um-hmm.
5 Q You've mentioned, now, some statistical analysis
6 you did with respect to the BMP rule and I'm trying to
7 move ahead now in time to other work you performed.
8 A Moving ahead, then, would be to this matter, in
9 the way I'm thinking about it. In other words, the only
10 other thing I've done other than BMP rule work involves
11 the matter that we're here about today.
12 Q Okay. And when you say this matter, the matter
13 we're here about today, what are you talking about?
14 A I'm talking about, from my point of view,
15 anyway, the statistical work that involves data in the
16 Loxahatchee and data in the ENP, Everglades National Park.
17 Q Okay. When did you first begin working at data
18 from Loxahatchee and Everglades National Park?
19 A It was not necessarily after the BMP rule
20 analysis, but it was after I had already begun the BMP
21 rule analysis. Again, the way I look at it, this sort of
22 separate and distinct matter came up, the Loxahatchee and
23 ENP analyses.
24 So it would have been some months, several
25 months, after my first engagement.
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1 Q And who approached you with respect to doing an
2 analysis of the Loxahatchee an Everglades National Park
3 data?
4 A It would have been some combination of Curt
5 Pollman and the attorneys for the co-op.
6 Q What, specifically, were you asked to do in
7 terms of analyzing data from Loxahatchee Refuge and
8 Everglades National Park?
9 A The first thing I was asked to do was to review
10 any analyses that had already been performed by the
11 District or consultants who were working for the District
12 or for the federal government in this area.
13 Q And when did you begin conducting that
14 evaluation and analysis?
15 A Again, I'm sorry I don't have these dates in
16 mind, but it was several months after -- if I'm right that
17 it was early 1991, it would have been several months
18 later.
19 Q Did you prepare a proposal to do the work
20 involving statistical analysis of park and refuge data?
21 A Yes.
22 Q Do you recall specifically which statistical
23 analysis or other analysis that was performed by the
24 District or other consultants that you were asked to
25 review?
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1 A Yes. In the ENP area analyses, it was primarily
2 Dr. Walker's time series analysis of ENP data that I was
3 asked to review and then make a proposal for further
4 analyses.
5 In the Loxahatchee, I don't know who performed
6 the analysis, but I think it was primarily District
7 documents that contained the analysis that I was asked to
8 review. That included, I think, a report dated August
9 1991. I guess it would have to have been after that that
10 I reviewed it, and appendix E to the SWIM plan.
11 MR. GARVER: Ms. Court Reporter, can you please
12 mark this as McClave No. 1.
13 (The document last above referred to was marked
14 for identification as McClave Deposition Exhibit No. 1.)
15 BY MR. GARVER:
16 Q Dr. McClave, I'm handing you what's been marked
17 as Exhibit McClave No. 1.
18 Do you recognize this document?
19 A Yes.
20 Q What is it?
21 A This is a proposal for analyses to be conducted,
22 by KBN and Info Tech, on the Everglades National Park
23 water quality data that were analyzed by Dr. Walker.
24 Q And this document is dated August 6th, 1991; is
25 that correct?
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1 A Yes.
2 Q Were you involved in the preparation of this
3 proposal?
4 A Yes.
5 Q Was anybody else involved in the preparation of
6 the proposal?
7 A Yes.
8 Q Who else?
9 A Dr. Pollman, and possibly others at KBN, but I
10 only know of Dr. Pollman. And at Info Tech, an assistant
11 consultant that works with me, by the name of Cindy
12 Hewitt, H-e-w-i-t-t.
13 Q What portions of this proposal did you prepare,
14 Dr. McClave?
15 A I prepared the tasks -- In general, I prepared
16 the tasks that involved the statistics and database
17 instructions. So task number one, database construction.
18 And task number two, descriptive analyses, I prepared
19 that. Task three, time series analyses, I prepared that.
20 So I would have been involved in -- Most of this
21 is my work.
22 Q How about on the second page, the section
23 entitled General Comments And Cost Estimates? Was that
24 something you also prepared?
25 A Yes. I either wrote it or reviewed it.
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1 Q Prior to preparing this proposal, had you -- had
2 you done any work, commenced work on evaluating any of the
3 documents you mentioned earlier, being Dr. Walker's
4 analysis of park data, or District documents involving
5 analysis of refuge or park data?
6 A I specifically remember having reviewed Walker's
7 -- Dr. Walker's analysis prior to preparing this
8 proposal. I don't know whether - I don't think this
9 proposal involves any District analyses, so I don't
10 remember whether my review of those documents was before
11 or after this.
12 Q Okay. How much of the work that's described in
13 the first two pages of Exhibit No. 1 has actually been
14 performed at this time?
15 A I would say, as far as this proposal is
16 concerned, none of it has been performed at this time.
17 I have prepared an affidavit, but not as a
18 result of analysis with regard to this proposal. So I'm
19 referring to 4B where it says "Provide affidavits." I
20 mean that -- what I meant by that was after doing this
21 analysis, and I have not done this analysis yet.
22 Q When you say "this analysis," what analysis are
23 you talking about?
24 A The analyses that are described in tasks two and
25 three.
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1 Q Why has that analysis not been performed?
2 A The primary reason is that the data involved in
3 these analyses, insofar as we know, has not been provided
4 in an analyzable form.
5 We have received data in various forms, hard
6 copy and many, many PC diskettes that includes data that
7 might be involved in Dr. Walker's analyses. But it's been
8 our belief there must be a database that he utilized to do
9 his analysis and, at least that I know of, we have not
10 been - or Info Tech has not been provided that database.
11 It was our view we would spend an awful lot of
12 time and probably wasted effort reconstructing a database
13 that may or may not end up being the same one he used. So
14 we are still awaiting the provision of those data.
15 Q When you say the data -- that data has not been
16 provided in analyzable form, why is the data that has been
17 provided not analyzable?
18 A What I mean by that is, for example, we use
19 something called SAS, the Statistical Analysis System, and
20 SAS has certain data -- certain formats for its databases
21 that are readable by SAS.
22 Every statistical package has a similar
23 characteristic that the data reside in a particular format
24 that's utilized by that package. That, as opposed to just
25 raw data, data that -- records might include, for example,
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1 all sorts of water quality parameters in addition to, say,
2 phosphorus, if that's the one we want to look at. So data
3 in sort of a much -- I was going to use the word "random"
4 and I don't mean random, but a much more loose form, free
5 form format that may or may not be complete, as well.
6 And the intent of this, as the proposal
7 indicates, is to analyze exactly the same data that were
8 analyzed by Walker. And so, again, it's been my feeling
9 that, since the database has to exist in a statistically
10 analyzable format, that there's going to be a -- if we
11 can't get it in that format, there's going to be an awful
12 lot of time an effort spent, and not necessarily
13 successfully spent, in trying to reconstruct -- trying to
14 put the data into that format, trying to pick the data out
15 of the free form format, if indeed we have it in that
16 format, and put it into a statistically analyzable form.
17 There's a step there.
18 Q Is the specific problem that you're talking
19 about that you don't have Dr. Walker's format for the data
20 and compilation of data, so that you can't do exactly --
21 you can't work with exactly the same thing that he worked
22 with? Is that the basic problem?
23 A That's exactly the basic problem, yes. In other
24 words, I am -- it's my understanding his deposition has
25 not been taken yet, or at least I haven't read it, if it
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1 has. And it's my supposition at this point that, if
2 asked, he would say: Yes, I used so-and-so statistical
3 package, and the data exists in the following format for
4 that package.
5 I don't know what the answers to those questions
6 are, and they're very important answers to me as a
7 statistical analyst.
8 Q On page two of Exhibit No. 1, the first sentence
9 says:
10 "In general the statistical analyses
11 performed by Walker appear to be thoughtful and
12 careful."
13 Is that a sentence that you wrote?
14 A Yes.
15 Q What about Walker's analysis leads you to the
16 conclusion that it was thoughtful and careful?
17 A At that point, this is reminding me that I must
18 have read some of the other analyses at Loxahatchee or
19 some of the District analyses.
20 It's my view, overall, in this whole process of
21 having reviewed five or ten statistical analyses that have
22 been done at one time or another in the Everglades, that
23 many of them use insufficient data, poor data or appear to
24 be done quickly and not in a very sophisticated manner.
25 It was my view that the Walker analysis stood
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1 apart, in the sense that it seemed to have -- and I don't
2 have the data yet, but I know that it utilized a lot of
3 data over a relatively long time period, relative to the
4 other analyses, that is; not necessarily in an absolute
5 sense, but a relatively long time period. It utilized or
6 attempted to utilize -- haven't been able to check it --
7 some modeling tools that were more than just simple
8 regression analyses, which were done in many of the other
9 analyses.
10 So I was contrasting it here with some of the
11 other analyses that I've seen done by the District, other
12 BMP rule analysis, for example, which I felt to be rather
13 simplistic.
14 This one did not seem to me to be simplistic.
15 It seemed to me that a lot of time had been taken and he
16 attempted to do a careful analysis.
17 Q Other than the BMP rule analysis, do you recall
18 which other analysis you were comparing Walker's analysis
19 to?
20 A Well, at least now, and I think when I wrote
21 this, the Loxahatchee analysis would fall into the area of
22 analyses that I would call simplistic. The analyses that
23 went into the SWIM plan, Appendix E of the SWIM plan.
24 Q The next paragraph states:
25 "Careful" -- excuse me, "A careful time
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1 series analysis of the database constructed by
2 Walker will be difficult and time consuming.
3 However, until such analyses are performed, the
4 effects of the problems identified with the
5 Walker analysis remains speculative."
6 Did you write that section, as well?
7 A Yes.
8 Q Now, you -- I believe you testified a moment ago
9 that the time series analysis has not yet been performed.
10 Is that correct?
11 A I haven't performed a time series analysis. I
12 don't know if somebody else has, but I haven't.
13 Q Okay. Is it safe to conclude, then, or fair to
14 conclude that at this time the effects of problems
15 identified with the Walker analysis remain speculative?
16 A Yes, certainly in a sense -- what I was -- the
17 particular meaning I had with the word "speculative" here
18 is until you do the analysis, you don't know what the
19 results are going to be. Although you might have a hunch
20 or even a strong opinion, you don't know until you do
21 them. And so, in that sense, they're speculative.
22 Q Do you intend -- I'm sorry if I've already
23 stated this, but do you intend to cover -- to conduct a
24 time series analysis of Dr. Walker's data, once you obtain
25 it?
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1 A Yes.
2 Q And do you intend to conduct that analysis in
3 accordance with the proposal in Exhibit 1?
4 A Yes. I can't think of anything that has changed
5 my proposal or would have changed it since August of '91,
6 so yes.
7 THE WITNESS: Short break?
8 MR. GARVER: Yes.
9 (Brief recess.)
10 BY MR. GARVER:
11 Q All right. Dr. McClave, we were just talking
12 about the proposal that you did in August of 1991.
13 I want to go back to -- to get back on track
14 with the chronology, you stated that you had -- I believe
15 you stated that the first thing you did with respect to
16 statistical analysis of park and refuge data was to review
17 work done by others.
18 Have you completed that task?
19 A The review of work by others task? Is that what
20 you're asking?
21 Q Yes.
22 A No. I think I mentioned before there was a
23 report, a set of reports, but one I remember in particular
24 by Dr. Walker, on the settling velocity issue, that I've
25 just -- that has just been made available to me. And I
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1 haven't reviewed -- I've been told that I will probably be
2 asked to review it, but I haven't done it yet.
3 Q Okay. Speaking specifically now about
4 Dr. Walker's report on the water quality trends in the
5 park and the District's analysis and District documents of
6 data in Loxahatchee and in the park, including Appendix E,
7 have you concluded your review and evaluation of those
8 documents?
9 A I certainly have, as far as the Loxahatchee
10 documents are concerned.
11 I would say that part of this proposal is
12 certainly going to require continued review and renewed
13 review, if you will, statistical review of Dr.
14 Walker's work. So I would say that's not complete.
15 But the work in the Loxahatchee, as far as I
16 know, is at this point.
17 Q You have conducted some kind of an evaluation of
18 Dr. Walker's report on water quality trends; is that
19 correct?
20 A Oh, yes. I did a review and evaluation of that,
21 in order to prepare this proposal, and in order to prepare
22 an affidavit subsequent to this proposal. All I'm saying
23 to you is, once I get into the data analysis, I'm sure I'm
24 going to have to look a lot more deeply into that report.
25 Q Okay. The review and evaluation that you
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1 already have conducted of Dr. Walker's report, during what
2 time period did you conduct that review and evaluation?
3 A I'm going now by the date of this proposal,
4 which is August '91, so I would assume it would have been
5 done in the summer of '91.
6 Q And was it concluded upon the completion of your
7 affidavit? Is that fair to say?
8 A That's fair to say, yes.
9 MR. PERKO: Just for the record, I want to make
10 clear that the review, the initial review -- you're
11 speaking of the initial review of the Walker trends
12 analysis, correct? With the understanding that
13 additional analysis may be performed in accordance
14 with this proposal?
15 THE WITNESS: Yes. I thought that was what the
16 question was about, the initial review.
17 MR. GARVER: That was my -- right.
18 BY MR. GARVER:
19 Q Of the review and evaluation you've conducted of
20 Dr. Walker's report, and I'm now talking about the period
21 leading up to your affidavit, what did you do in order to
22 evaluate his report?
23 A I read it several times; thought about it;
24 probably consulted some time series -- or not probably, I
25 did consult some time series textbooks and research
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1 articles, probably. If I didn't consult them I at least
2 tried to recall what they were about.
3 Those are probably the main tasks that were
4 involved in that review.
5 Q Do you recall what textbooks you consulted?
6 A I always consult one by Fraser, F-r-a-s-e-r. I
7 think the name is something more exciting than Time Series
8 Analysis, but I don't recall the exact title. That's one
9 I've used and taught from as a reference from time to
10 time.
11 I may have looked at the work by Box and
12 Jenkins. Again I don't remember what the title is,
13 something to do with time series analysis.
14 Those two I recall specifically. There may have
15 been others.
16 Q Do you recall any particular portion of the
17 Fraser text that you mentioned that you were consulting,
18 in reviewing Walker's report?
19 A I don't. It would have had to do with time
20 series modeling, but I don't remember what chapters or
21 sections that I looked at.
22 Q Did anyone assist you in conducting your
23 evaluation of Walker's report leading up to your
24 affidavit?
25 A Yes.
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1 Q Who was that?
2 A Ms. Hewitt, again, would have been assisting me
3 in that review.
4 Q Okay. What is Ms. Hewitt's position?
5 A She is a senior consultant with Info Tech.
6 Q Are you familiar about her educational
7 background?
8 A Yes. She has a Master's in statistics.
9 Q And do you recall where she got her Master's
10 from?
11 A She got her Master's degree from the University
12 of Florida.
13 Q And do you recall when she got her Master's?
14 A No, I don't know.
15 Q How long has she been working at Info Tech?
16 A Approximately ten years; probably a little less
17 than ten years, but almost ten years.
18 Q Was there anyone else at Info Tech, at the
19 professional level, who assisted in the evaluation of Dr.
20 Walker's report during that time period in 1991?
21 A Not that I recall.
22 Q Did you prepare any other documentation, other
23 than your affidavit, in connection with your review and
24 evaluation of Dr. Walker's report in the summer and fall
25 of 1991?
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1 A I probably prepared -- I don't remember if I did
2 it in written form, or just on my computer, but I usually
3 keep notes as I'm reading through a report of things to
4 do, or thoughts as they occur to me. So I probably had
5 some notes prior to actually writing the affidavit.
6 Q Okay. Prior -- did you produce those notes in
7 connection with this deposition?
8 A I don't know. If they were in written form, I
9 did. If they were on the computer, they may not have even
10 been kept. In other words, often what I'll do is, because
11 of limitation of disk space, if I produce a final
12 document, I'll eliminate the notes that led up to that
13 final document. And I don't remember.
14 Q When you were producing documents in connection
15 with this deposition, did you check your computer files --
16 A (Nods head.)
17 Q -- for those sorts of documents, and produce
18 them if they existed?
19 A Yes.
20 Q If I recall correctly, the other documents you
21 said you reviewed in connection with Everglades water
22 quality issues were District documents relating to
23 analysis of refuge and park data, including Appendix E of
24 the SWIM plan; is that correct?
25 A Yes.
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1 Q Do you recall specifically which documents,
2 other than Appendix E, you reviewed?
3 A The one I remember that was very similar to
4 Appendix E, and even parts of it I think were just copied,
5 I think was the August 19, 1991 report, that had the
6 Loxahatchee analyses as well as several others contained
7 in it.
8 Q Was this August 19, 1991 report, did it appear
9 to be similar to a draft of Appendix E?
10 A I guess I would call it more statistical support
11 or data analysis in support of Appendix E. As I recall,
12 Appendix E had more nonstatistical element to it, in
13 addition to the statistics, whereas, at least as I recall
14 the August 19th report, it was primarily data and
15 statistical analysis.
16 Q And that August 19, 1991 report came from the
17 South Florida Water Management District; is that right?
18 A I think so, yes.
19 Q Were there any other documents you recall in
20 connection with your review of park and refuge data?
21 A Those are the ones I remember reviewing. There
22 have been other documents, but those are the ones I
23 remember carefully reviewing.
24 Q Okay. Do you recall what time period -- what
25 the time period was during which you conducted the review
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1 of Appendix E in that August 1991 report?
2 A I believe that those reviews began at sometime
3 after I wrote the affidavit on Dr. Walker's ENP analysis,
4 and continued -- continued in some manner up to the
5 present, or up to the time when I turned documents over;
6 would have been completed only in the last month or two.
7 Q But that review is -- and evaluation is complete
8 at the present time; is that correct?
9 A As far as I'm concerned, it is. Obviously there
10 may be -- as a result of this depositions, may be more
11 data supplied in the Loxahatchee.
12 One of the concerns I have that I'm sure you're
13 going to ask about at some point is that the data are of
14 poor quality and not very complete and so on. If
15 something is done about that, then I may do more work.
16 But as far as the data as they are now